Arb funonomics14 May 2026 16:29
If you buy SREIT directly
At 47.28p: you get 3.588p dividend - yield ≈ 7.6%
If you buy Picton at 71.4p, Right now you own: Picton paying 3.8p yield ≈ 5.3%.
So today your income is lower than SREIT.
But if the deal completes, Your 71.4p purchase converts into a package worth about:
76.9p (based on current LMP/SREIT prices).
And that package generates: SREIT dividends plus LMP dividends.
That future package income is about: 5.48p annually.
Now: On your ORIGINAL COST (71.4p)
your future yield becomes: 5.48/71.4 ×100≈7.68%
But notice something important The market already partly adjusted Picton yield upward to reflect this.
If Picton were still, say, 60p: the implied post-conversion yield would be enormous, and everyone would pile in.
So the market has already arbitraged part of the opportunity away.
The actual remaining arbitrage is: You pay:
71.4p For something currently implied to become: 76.9p worth of securities. That’s the spread.
If you look purely at yield, then: Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust already gives you ~7.6%
directly, immediately, and without deal risk. So the higher future look-through yield from Picton is not really “free compensation.”
Because the market already repriced Picton upward to reflect that future income stream.
So from a pure income perspective: you are not obviously being overpaid for taking merger risk.
That’s an important realisation. The remaining reason to buy Picton instead of SREI is therefore not mainly yield.
It becomes: spread capture, possible rerating, LMP exposure, and optionality around the deal.
In other words: the “arb” is mostly: capital appreciation / conversion economics
However the new deal gives better composition of the income stream, not necessarily higher income.
Instead of:
100% Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust exposure,
you potentially end up with:
mostly SREIT, plus meaningful LondonMetric Property exposure.
And LMP arguably has:
stronger market perception,
better liquidity,
lower discount risk,
more institutional support,
and arguably higher-quality portfolio characteristics.
So you’re effectively:
diversifying the same broad REIT/income thesis into a stronger blended vehicle.