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Previous guidance was 125000-160000 prescriptions, by saying 'trending towards previous guidance' you're hinting that you're well into the 100s of thousands with just one quarter to go which equals a very big quarter.
Actual result - 77000 and the lowest growth QoQ
Just two months ago:
'I am pleased to report that the collaboration continues to deliver excellent results, based on the stand-out performance of the combined commercial team, which has produced consistent and strong sequential prescription growth and key performance indicators (KPI), which are trending towards previous guidance. In addition, we have made positive strides towards our goal of increasing our average net selling price and expect further progress in 2024.'
Yet they knew October and some of November's numbers already - shocking deception.
Also worth highlighting that production was almost 2500 ounces greater than sales this year meaning there's at least that much gold bullion waiting to be sold above $2000/oz = $5m more cash in the bank.
To be able to double production without any threat of a cash raise whatsoever is as strong a position as you could ask for.
Already net cash positive with virtually no debt and $11.6m cash. Guidance for this year 38000-40000 Oz at I would imagine an AISC of ~$1450-$1500, Just $15m capex needed to reach 60000Oz from Q4 25/Q1 2026 at an AISC sub $1400 so almost certainly able to self fund to such a level (+$5m credit facility if needed)>
That will be around $30m EBITDA at $2000/oz POG and at $2300 (by 2026) more like $50m against a valuation of $50m today? And there's significant potential benefit to be seen from the Vale partnership.
Incredibly low risk in such a gold environment.
Yeah my point is this is nothing like last time, the sell off was acute at the end of the business day prior to the placing was announced, this is a drip drip sell off which is in line with the rest of the stock market.
Does it fill me with confidence that the update is going to blow us away? Definitely not but it's also unreasonable to read into it anymore than that.
Most likely we see 40k prescriptions, growth on track but the market shrugs its shoulders.
Besides the placing last time which is an impossible thing to keep in-house how leaky is STX? Volume is rather low with only one trading day out of the last six reaching 1m shares traded so there's certainly no rush for the exit?
Isn't it more likely it's just one large holder wanting out? In this market anything but unequivocally good news leads to a sell down so much of it is probably just prudent risk averse trading right now.
Good post, largely articulated what I was trying to say.
Take the Argo share price at the start of February. Due to the retrace and length of time in the 13-15p range it was itching for a big move one way or the other. All it took was BTC to push through $42k and within a few trading sessions Argo rallied about 65%.
Now we're in a position where we need to see BTC push on from $52k and even then probably break $55k for the Argo share price to catch alight again. Possible sure but an unfavourable R/R.
Now as it finds a range
We are talking hundreds of GWh of storage to be deployed across Europe and the Americas in the years ahead and we have Invinity and their vrfbs as one of the best placed non lithium alternatives globally.
Personally think we're going to look back in a year's time and see this as the opportunity to load up before it really takes off.
No that's not the point at all. The time to buy Argo is when there's enough interest and eyes on it that it outpaces any rise in BTC, the time to avoid is when the opposite is true.
The share price has run out of steam and is far more likely to fall now, with the next move north starting from a much lower base.
Shishir set a bit of a precedent by making himself so available in the early years of listing. When all was going okay I'm sure the correspondence was easy to keep up with but once things started to go south suddenly it must become overwhelming with panicked shareholders (I include myself here) sending emails left right and centre and demanding answers.
That will have been why he agreed to the one-to-one meetings in September but seeing as the share price has only soured since that hasn't proved the solution he was hoping it to be - if anything it's probably angered some even more as those that spoke to him were reassured that everything was on track and the share price at the time, 20p ish, was no reflection of true performance and progress.
But like you Cigam, I couldn't care less that my most recent email hasn't been answered if that time is instead spent steering the ship back on course here because ultimately that's what matters.
Last year they then released the full year results the following month in May.
I was told earlier this year that this is considered the first full year of production as its the first year of operations since 30kt capacity was installed - hence expect quarterly updates in the usual fashion ( for tgr that's Aug/Sept Q1, Nov/Dec Q2, Feb Q3, May full year)
The fact that BTC has held at $52.5k with Argo sub 20p is terrible news for holders here.
Of course there's still a chance BTC doesn't stop on its northward path and a move to $60k sparks life into Argo again but even a modest retrace back into the high 40s is likely to see some capitulation here - weighted considerably to the downside right now.