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What's the investment case for the NA miners at the moment? From where I'm sitting the halving has come and gone, fees have fallen back to normal levels and so miners are back making the equivalent of ~$35k pre halving?
Is it a case of picking those with a large HODL in preparation for an expected surge north in the BTC price?
Saluc, whilst I'm not taking sides I am reliably informed that even Hemant resigned for similar reasons. the joint founder of TGR and a Poddar himself. I've rarely been negative on here and have tried my hardest to support the company throughout the last year but it does get to the point where I have to start to accept that those on the inside are able to judge the situation better than I can.
Look at how Shishir tried to play down Murat's resignation, claiming it was for personal reasons and yet here he is as part of the group. The same is true of Hemant. At the very least it seems pretty evident that Shishir is rather difficult to work with and it is starting to seem like the debt markets are closed off to TGR whilst he's in charge.
Do you realistically think the golden trio of Shishir, his daughter and Alastair Beth are going to drive hundreds of millions of pounds of value back into the company? I'm sure Alastair's a decent guy and may be capable but I don't think I've ever seen someone with sucha lightweight CV be promoted so rapidly to an executive team of a FTSE listed company. Needs must perhaps but I wanted to see proactivity on this front and yet nearly two months have passed without any governance update.
Shishir needs to prove otherwise to the claims above... he needs to prove that there are credible NEDs willing to join with him at the helm, that he's able to attract further investment etc otherwise the company is going nowhere without action.
If it comes to words and targets TGR has missed theirs / performed worse than virtually all others. Shishir maintained the 6100-6500T q1 target right past the quarter and yet it was missed by a country mile, not even close to half. Q2 then came in even lower and after that we once again get quite bullish targets for H2 but so far , with the half year over, we haven’t even been given a hint of how either Q3 or Q4 went.
As it happens TGR in many ways are in a healthier position than many other graphite miners due to taking a low cost approach to their growth strategy, so whilst misses have been egregious the losses have remained modest but that doesn’t excuse the misses.
Shishir floods the airwaves when he has good news to share but goes into hiding when the opposite needs releasing and as of this point in time has shown no ability to turn the ship around.
However it’s hard to imagine the four that are part of the requisitioning group have what it takes either. So all in all a pretty miserable situation
Whilst I'm on the fence over this requisition wouldn't this be the best time for Shishir to actually start delivering on his promises? Go back to March and look at the flurry of rns' we got - one after another. We had 'Corporate Update', 'Global Graphite Outlook', 'Madagascar Exploration Update', 'Business Development Update' and PMDR dealing yet 6 weeks later and still nothing. No tax rebate from the Madagascan government that's been talked about for nearly a year now and was supposedly imminent, no CFO in place, none of the new independent NEDs, no update with actual production figures.
It would only take modest operational improvement for Shishir's position to be safe but so far in 2024 the jury is out.
It's a tricky one this for me. On the one hand it's clear Shishir is difficult to work for and is possibly not up to the job of growing TGR into the entity it could otherwise become with competent leadership however some of what is being demanded and claimed seems to me, disingenuous - front and centre is the supposed lack of independent directors yet the only reason for that is because Isabel and Murat resigned, leaving Shishir with no choice but to install whoever he could which was essentially his only two senior corporate employees (his daughter and Alastair)
So Isabel and Murat make up two of the four proposed directors that TGR supposedly badly need yet they were already on the board and chose to resign... so why not be more honest and simply say they don't think Shishir is fit to run the company plain and simple rather than using the excuses they have which they themselves forced.
I don't think so no, they've just 'rescheduled' it meaning they benefit more now from POG, in the immediate term from this $2300/oz price but if gold stays here or goes even higher through 2024 they'll be losing out there instead as it will be hedged/collared a lot lower than spot price. If they had actually used up cash doing this Dan would have emphasised that either in the rns or IMC but he didn't.
They are potentially giving up future cash revenues to maximise short term generation, understandably as they need to navigate the next few months whilst the cards are stacked against them.
I don't follow Corz like I used to but their daily mining reporting gives a little insight into what's happening re fees and post halving, albeit I think they're also installing new machines alongside. Here's the last few weeks for example:
April 12th: 32.3
April 13th: 30.4
April 14th: 29.5
April 15th: 31.7
April 16th: 29.1
April 17th: 29.7
April 18th: 30.1
April 19th: 30.8
April 20th: 57.3
April 21st: 25.2
April 22nd: 21.2
April 23rd: 25.2
April 24th: 19.6
April 25th: 16.2
Whatever happens, as near to 100% STX will be relying on cash to get them though the rest of 2024 so the question is who provides it? AOP? This is an FDA approved drug so if it is as good as the mgmt team claim it to be it's obviously worth something, the problem is they won't be able to fight off a lowball bid from the likes of AOP this time around.
Last year the mandatory cash offer was 6.01p, this time around they could easily pull off a TO at less than half that.
CS the £1.38 target isn't an incentive but the knowledge that they'll receive 950k/390k/465k shares for LR, Steve and Joanne respectively incentivises them to make as much of a success of this as possible - the difference in cash terms between £1.38 and say £5, especially for Steve and Joanne, is significant.
There's not even a chance their focus will be on just ensuring Novacyt is a £100m mcap/£1.38 a share company, they'll be gunning for many times that if they win the dispute.
'Shield has also undertaken several important measures to manage its cash flow, including the reduction of operating expenses, and working capital enhancements, to provide the necessary resources with the aim of turning cash flow positive in the second half of 2025'
It's worded very vaguely, intentionally so.
As for the previous post re 45k scripts Hardman modelled 55k scripts for q4 of last year rising to ~65k by q1 of this year to get to 330k in 2024. 45k scripts won't be anywhere near enough to get them to cash flow break even before the next cash call but I agree it would certainly be reason to be a bit more optimistic, especially if there's any movement on net price per Rx.
No, anything going on with Anglo is far too indirect to make an immediate impact to the ARCM share price.
What recent events and commentary has done is cement the notion that copper is front and centre for the plans of both Anglo and an even bigger giant BHP - that bodes very well for the JV and is reason for those holding here to feel optimistic.
'Are you really saying that after last week you was defending 2 billion valuation for SRB based on guidance for a production profile that isn't even funded and not even guided for until atleast 2026?🤡🤡🤡🤡'
No, you've got the wrong person, that was someone else. I have a £1 target for SRB.
'The amount he cried last week because I said SRB would test 55p was unreal.'
You're an odd one. (i) I didn't get wound up because you just came on the SRB board spamming with no interest in debating and (ii) I was right that it wouldn't pull back that far.
Anyway I won't reply to you again however abusive and slanderous your posts as it's tedious for the rest.
Reading through your post again essentially what you're doing is assuming a fairly optimistic base case that involves POG remaining this high and Coris being supportive regarding the debt maturity that's looming as with your figures they still aren't going to meet the short term liabilities they have this year. Certainly could work out but the risk is much bigger than you want to believe.
HUM keep repeating that Coris is supportive but they are a bank not a charity, they will want their pound of flesh in return for this support.
The_shareminator that's a really detailed post thank you. A great starting point although from almost line 1 you got something wrong (Yanfolila guidance has been lowered to 75k-85k hence my 75k remark). Still, I'll start from the basis that the rest of the post is more or less accurate as a jumping off point for my own research. Thanks again.
If you think falling short of production target by possibly as much as 40% is going to have no knock on effects for an indebted miner such as HUM then fine. You might be right but once you're running the risk of failing to meet debt obligations things turn sour pretty quickly.
Will continue to watch with interest and hope for your sake Dan Betts starts to follow through on his ambitious plans for once and HUM holders get some respite.
No so let me at least expand on that earlier comment.
December placing at 11.25p. The placing rns included this: 'The Company is on track to produce c.200,000 oz in FY-2024' which (from a later update) we know would be ~80k Yanfolila and 120k Kou. There's also plenty of talk of deleveraging the balance sheet as a priority hence my focus on that metric earlier.
Now we know that first quarter production was 22867 oz. Let's assume Yanfolila hits 75k target what do you expect from Kou this year? We don't know obviously but is 100k possible now? No, 60k? Perhaps. Conservatively let's say 50k - that would mean HUM produces 75k oz less than they set out to just a few short months ago so let's assume expectation were for gold to average $2100 this year back then - that's over $150m lost revenue vs prior expectations. Gold price would need to go way, way higher to counteract the lost revenue from this mess with Corica.
So is this a steal vs the 11.26p placing price in December? No i don't think so, not when the plan was to pay off $77m debt this year which looks impossible now given the situation and tight cash constraints.
Will HUM become a 200k oz producer at some point in the future? Sure they obviously still can but at what price in the meantime? How many more shares will there be in issue at that point and what will the debt be? You might even find that it happens at the end of the gold bull market and all the cash generated simply goes to slowly paying down the debt for years to come.
No one likes to hear it but unless the situation is sorted very quickly at Kou the next lot of financing is going to be a lot uglier than the last.
Difficulty has actually increased around 10% vs the average in q1 too so I suspect direct cost per Bitcoin now is about $34000 x2 for the halving.
I watched the entire presentation and q&a for a change and it’s clear there’s absolutely no strategy to get themselves out of this situation besides putting on a brave face and remaining publicly upbeat in the hope that a BTC price surge translates into an Argo sp price surge and enough interest to place again. Personally Thomas will be focused on reaching this November vesting date to receive his ~1m ADR shares and then in an ideal world the next November and the one after too.
Those are basically the questions I put forward, alongside a’at roughly what BTC price, difficulty where it is now, would Argo be back generating cash?’ but they were ignored for silly questions like ‘is Argo thinking about paying a dividend this year?’