Member Info for HarChris

The good news is that Brandberg West is a historically producing mine which means there will likely be a much faster route to recommencing mining, nothing like the time it would take to build a mine from scratch. I suspect we'll hear more soon about the low capex route to production that was mentioned in the last business update. BWCAMs potential $51m investment is no back of the pocket change either, that's some serious dough to throw at this and with the backdrop so strong for all the commodities (tungsten, tin, copper) I don't see why they wouldn't go hell for leather to get this mine up and running again.

Honestly, it beggar’s belief, surely they could have just sold the company at a huge discount to Empire PFS NPV but still given the shareholders a reasonable exit? Before this raise they were valued at about $4.5m with NPV of Empire at current Cu & Au prices of something like $180m. Even just 5% of that would be an out at 2.4p rather than this way round which is highly likely ending in failure now. Certainly something like 2.4p with the amount of shares the TVR will end up with is now unlikely.

I’ve sat on the sidelines for a while now knowing full well how this often plays out these days on AIM but honestly, 0.5p is even more of a pi*s take than I expected. Sorry to holders that unlike me stuck with this, it really sucks.

Strange, put in for £2500, got £2500. HL.

I know you think you’re being funny but building a multimetal mining business as an entrepreneur is a steep and constant learning curve. It’s not something you simply master at business school.

A partner for phase 2? A platform level deal? Strong TNBC data? Perhaps a surprise 6103 related RNS?

There are numerous angles in which one could denigrate and criticise Jason but one has to acknowledge that he has essentially gone all in with Maru to keep the wolf at the door when he likely would benefit personally more from just sitting on his large SKA and NEO holding whilst taking the next best option at Maru (likely huge dilution). He's put it all on the line here instead of throwing shareholders under the bus.

I'm no huge fan of Jason but ignoring this fact (expect a GMI loan rns soon) is ignoring reality.

So what price are you looking to exit at? After the 33p placing we've seen as high as 55p, a whole 66% above the placing price - that wasn't enough short term trading returns for you?

I suspect we’ll get our full allocation, or at least very close to full.

When it comes to the leaky ship angle it’s probably true but we can’t put the 50% fall down to that entirely. Far from it. The high was off the back of major ME events that had hyped up a transformational helium spike incoming which gradually looked to have been exaggerated somewhat, with the share price rolling back as a ceasefire came into view.

Also it was pretty obvious that cash was tight and very rarely does everything go perfectly smoothly upon initiating production, even without a leak every man and his dog with any intuition will have known this was a possibility…

It likely played a part in the extent of the SP collapse, just not the main driver.

Yes.

Surprised MKA can’t catch a break with how strong Nd is looking.

I remember in March saying if we can get to June with the hedge lifting with tin around $45k then we really will be sitting pretty... June has just come and gone with tin averaging something like $51k, and is still over $52k today. Record production alongside too even if the gains are only small and incremental currently.

The business is objectively in a great place.

Until fairly recently ATM has been a cash guzzling miner so there's never been any chance to reduce the debt. That's different now but it's all very recent and until $50k and the hedge lifting they would have barely been profitable at the group level as the cash being generated was being redirected at these expansion attempts.

We're now in a very different landscape with genuinely meaningful cash capable of being piled up month after month, which will in time go towards reducing the debt as and when it matures barring a total f up on the operational front. For now it's just a few months but if tin stays above $50k every week, every month is an ever so slight derisking and at the very least (almost) guarantees no sudden cash call that catches us off guard.

I want to see returns immediately but the business is in great shape and doesn't need to leverage its valuation to raise so the undervaluation we all see and believe isn't impacting long term returns and there's no real time pressure for this to all play out, the catalysts come when they come.

I still think we could be close to a rerate, despite all the pessimism.

'I don't think the share price has ever even reached the placing price when it comes to HEX, each and every one has seen a sharp bounce immediately following completion.'

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My comment yesterday looking credible today.

Gib, as long as ATM remain highly profitable ie tin price stays sky high the SP could start steadily rising at any time. After all, every month adds a good few $m into the kitty which derisks the investment and puts to bed any fears of future funding rounds being needed.

I don't think the share price has ever even reached the placing price when it comes to HEX, each and every one has seen a sharp bounce immediately following completion.

There's some great points to this acqusition and Drachs taking up 31m shares is clearly a vote of confidence, so is there long term commitment as they appoint two NEDs and commit to always holding at least 15% of the company.

Really the only (and big) negative is the disappointing strike price, if this was completed a few weeks ago or even just the placing completed (with acquisition to follow) at say 32p instead we'd all be delighted right now.

At the same time there will be value lost in terms of dilution if they fail to deal before the ava6103 readout and then end up with a heavily signposted raise at the end of the year - it's about balance and after waiting years for a deal to come it does feel like now is the sweet spot, even if there could be greater nominal value landing the first deal post 6103 data.

I don't get why placings on AIM always have to be at a discount, why isn't management ever able to pull off a price that values the company fairly? Let's say insider knowledge played a major hand in the share price destruction from a high of 47p back down to 25p, why do management teams never seem able to negotiate placings in these circumstances at say 30p? Placings benefit both parties, the company needing the cash but also the larger entities able to enter with sizeable amounts without having to buy open market and hence without any risk of spiking the price.

The gold backdrop for Jangada is half the battle here, we know they are fully funded for the current drilling campaigns but we also know they'll keep needing more cash and so it's all about getting to production without too big of a share float. Hoping good news across the gold portfolio and against a strong gold backdrop frees up the share price to go on a nice healthy run, ideally placing next closer to 2p than 1.5p and then from there seeing enough developments to potentially open up debt funding alongside equity in 2027.

Currently 850m shares in total, if Jangada can keep TVR below 2B (for example) by the time they are producing there will be huge rewards on offer - 8p with 2B shares is only $200m mcap, that's more than achievable here with the right tailwinds at the right time. And with resource upgrades and potentially $2b+ of gold in the ground it might be quite a conservative target.