Member Info for HarChris

‘ so if they don't want to get into a bidding war they do in fact buy now, don't they?’

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Certainly agree Wyn and that could very well be what’s happening, hence the lack of news. Due diligence on such a takeover will take time and likely won’t come with much of a warning.

Unfortunately a bid at this stage would likely be at far less of a premium than many of us hope, perhaps something like £2.50 a share, however if even that were to be the case it’s not a reason to be bearish today at 70p, in fact it’s a reason to buy more for such a return over such a short space of time.

Yeah that’s largely my take. I see boards like this as a natural home for those invested or looking to invest, not for those unconvinced by an investment/doubtful of the upside case. In terms of the latter almost all of those just gravitate to the bb of the company they instead invest in rather than ‘educating’ the unwashed masses.

Observing rather than commenting, I’ve often found myself becoming the pub bore like you on other BBs and I’ve realised it and chose to stop. That’s all. You crack on!

i've often sketched out long posts like wyn does on shares i don't own or where i think others have lost the plot and need a bit of a reality check but i almost always stop myself from actually clicking 'post message' when i read though it as i realise just utterly tedious and boring it reads. and i remind myself i don't want to be that guy as everyone knows one of those types in real life and they're irritating as ****!

‘Cornerstone investor’ is their way of saying that they have a sticky institutional holder taking most of these shares. I guess they can’t guarantee 100% for certain they won’t suddenly take small profits but it suggests Avacta very much expects that not to be the case.

Either way the ‘Heights issue’ is more or less behind Avacta now, other obstacles to overcome atill obviously but one less (and a big one at that) is good news.

I know he’s on holiday so let active at the moment which could explain it - agree though look forward to hearing your views on the update and video.

We get quarterly updates for production with the next due max two weeks time, so we'll find out soon enough. Really hoping the jig plant has added at least 20 or 30t per quarter.

Agree on the other point though, AV never acknowledges when targets are missed, they're just quietly buried / dates are changed.

Yes next month, so 13 months til expiry.

They aren't going to be exercised unless share price closer to double to where we are now and the market knows as share price rises that if it heads higher up to 458m of warrants will be exercised and hit the market hence the catch 22.

It's going to take totally unignorable news to push share price beyond a penny or a renegotiation of these warrants imo.

I think a solution will be found to deal with the warrants and that will be the start of the recovery. No idea how long that will take or whether warrant holders will only budge once it gets closer to their expiry, which is still a long way off.

They're in a financial bind atm, must be low on cash and soon unable to meet the monthly CLN repayments, Akoko needs funding and there's the wall of warrants.

This all rests on the financial moves that come next, if MBS steps up and issues large debt funding Hamak is a winner, if not things get messy with the ATM death spiral taking hold.

So chemo isn't tired, old, has-been tech after all???

6103 is going to grab some splashy headlines in the not too distant future.

If the most pessimistic negative poster on here is predicting £3-£4 per share then that’s a very good sign.

I’m hoping for more but if that ends up being the result it’s still a very satisfying pay day.

Exactly Wyn so the most important thing is in seeing that pre|CISION works. For SGC they're hoping that by directing Dox in the tumour it will improve the efficacy and safety profile by enough to make it a standout new treatment. For now we know it certainly produces durable responses in SGC patients quite unlike Dox in monotherapy and any of the combos used, we also know the side effects are reduced and we're waiting to find out just how much greater the PFS is (anywhere from modest to significant improvement).

This is all positive but it's still quite different to AVA6103 and Exatecan. The unknown question isn't along the same lines as it is with Dox, it's not 'that by directing Exatecan in the TME do we see a more efficacious and safe drug?' because we know how efficacious it is for the indications they are going after, there's no question that if it's directed at the tumour with minimal leakage that ava6103 is going to shrink tumours. And it's already been seen impeccably at the preclinical level. So it's just about taming Exatecan and I think it's a fair logic to at least say that's what pre|CISION does.

So really we should be seeing the odds of 6103 success now high and if that happens Avacta will, with certainty, be a very big winner from here. We know it's not long til we get a very good idea just how good 6103 is and we know (at worst) the amount of dilution needed to progress 6103 another 12 months to full evidence and proof is small.

Prove the platform and that should be the company sold within 12 months or so.

Well seeing as doxorubicin isn't approved to treat SGC i'm not sure it's as simple of that, Avacta needs to prove that it's targeted approach significantly improves on the best options currently out there, ie the likes of CAP (cisplatin doxorubicin) which are used off-label. It's possible that Doxorubicin as a monotherapy just isn't effective against many of the subtypes of SGC and hence however well ava6000 targets dox it won't necessary be all that effective. If that's the case it might have limited use as a monotherapy here and instead end up seeing a deal with a partner later looking into combo therapies, for SGC or possible other 6000 indications too. Either way the data suggests pre|CISION works which is an excellent read across for STS, TNBC and 6103.

Or like CC continues to allude to there is a deal that's very close to being agreed. They now have plenty of time to land this, whether it's this month, next month, August or September all would be well before another round of funding would be needed.

If you’re genuinely interested I’ll answer you, they probably haven’t been making much money but they certainly are today with the hedge lifted and tin at $57k.

I would say they were probably cash flow positive for the past six months or so but only modestly hence not enough to cover the capex that apparently was still needed or to pay off the debt when it matured. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t profitable now as tin goes even higher, the hedge is lifted and production rises slightly too.

No question though that they aren’t making the most of this tin backdrop right now and to be transformational we need to see that scale come online whilst tin remains above $50k… otherwise we’re relying on news from one of the other projects to command a much higher share price.

Chemo-refractory. That doesn’t mean some improvement on straight Dox isn’t possible (it is) but totally obliterating these heterogeneous SGC cancers through directing more Dox at the tumour doesn’t appear to be achievable.

Har har, wouldn’t have a problem with that personally.

Someone wanted out with apparently 20m shares to dump, that sort of selling is always going to hold the share back but if they're done now i'm sure we'll find lots of keen buyers with tin at this level.

It’s a fantastic video update - sure Martin has in the past suggested we’re at an inflection point etc but I’m not sure I’ve seen him push it this directly and confidently.

At all time low SP the risk/reward here is compelling.

I'm not sure anyone is arguing they can... that's where Nick's doing a great job here, slowly bringing key people into the fold / acquiring assets with a clear eye on boosting the quality of workforce.

Couldn't disagree more, the collapse in share price suggested all could be rather unsavoury behind the scenes, especially during the transition from individual brands to Peeko and all the new revenue streams . That's certainly not the case.