Member Info for HarChris

Yes, they raised post year in February, a mix of debt & equity.

Well well well that trading update is far better than you were expecting horsetrader, eh?

That’s because you’re valuing against one of its projects - a reasonable thing to do when they lie dormant but not when they the lithium asset has the largest lithium producer globally working it up (and having completed its drilling campaign) and the other full steam ahead with possibly the two most important metals in the years to come - copper and tungsten - alongside tin.

I agree that arguably ATM is fairly valued against the tin operation as things stand without proving up the scale promised but it then applies zero value to two major projects which could both generate many times the current market cap if eventually sold.

One thing's for sure he won't get away with operational failures forever, not now all these heavyweights are invested.

The deals made and partnerships across the rest of the business has been very positive however.

Their AISC were sub $28k/t (including royalty) as of last year, they quite clearly are turning a profit at $57k tin.

The lithium plans were shelved because the lithium price fell too low to justify taking on such large amounts of debt to build it, that's too high risk. Now the price has risen many multiples and there's grant funding available and specialists on board so it's a totally different kettle of fish today.

As to your other points re ore sorters and jig plant, 100% agree, it's not good enough and it's why the share price is where it is despite the backdrop - lack of faith in management to make the most of it.

Still, I think it's pessimistic in the extreme.

And none of that includes the lithium integration at Uis which is looking ever more likely now, with the EIB involved as well as other serious entities.

Pull that off over the coming years and ATM has a monster polymetallic operation at Uis with 100+ years mine life with industry low costs - sure there’s a lot of hurdles to overcome to get there but the fact it’s even a distinct possibility to me makes the risk/reward here even more eye catching.

I’ve felt I’ve had to sell elsewhere and buy as much as possible today. I know we’ve been continually let down but the company are without doubt funded now, they are generating decent cash from the tin operation to cover all group costs (and some) and we could get company-making news from one of multiple avenues at any time through the rest of this year.

$90m mcap for all that is too low and won’t last forever unless AV totally f’s this up and I don’t think with the partners they have and the IIs on board that that will happen.

They’re into the second month post Riverfort debt maturity meaning a second month of interest tacked on as punishment. God knows what other terms are in that contract but I think we’d all agree that failing to meet this debt could see things get ugly pretty quickly.

Need revenue to start flowing very soon and if not I’m feeling the only hope is if Jason can summon more cash from his investment vehicle - I’m doubtful of that though.

Mike as the expert on the Emi-le trial do you have any info on how much treatment is likely to cost if approved seeing as it’s a specialised ADC? Perhaps $150k-$200k per course ? Am I in the right ballpark ?

Certainly an area 6000 will win out.

And are they trialling patients with advanced metastatic cancers ?

6103 should be targeting the same if the preclin is anything to by.

They probably wouldn’t pay huge sums for such a drug although I’m hoping they (or perhaps a biotech firm slightly lower down the food chain) will pay modest sums to acquire such an asset funding 6103 and the rest of the pipeline through 2027.

That would tick both the funding box and the long awaited third party validation

Let's face it these results are good, no point claiming otherwise.

Still Avacta's value is in its technology and IP and the myriad ways a future acquirer could put it to work. Moves towards an approval for a single indication for ava6000 would obviously be positive but it won't likely be much of a factor when it comes to the price we are offered following any TO.

No it doesn't, cash position was €1.6m as of December 31st, that's almost half a year ago. It's likely about about $600k now.

Still, it's arguably worth a punt at such a low mcap for the most risk loving of investors.

' Importantly, a significant renewal by the Group's largest customer in May 2026, on enhanced commercial terms, will improve the short-term cash position of the Group, once funds are received later in the year. The outcome is that the performance for the current financial year will be second half weighted as the majority of revenue from these recent wins is expected to be recognised in the second half of 2026.'

The question is can they get to that point? Very possibly but are the contracts enough to fund the company going forward? No. And the going concern statement doesn't really all that well.

At the end of the day the focus appears to be all on cost reduction rather than any sign of a material increase in revenues. It's a race to the bottom.

I don't care about the 500 shots on goal or whatever anyway, 6103 looks like the real deal. And whether or not 6000 turns out to be a successful drug in its own right (more likely in combo) or simply the pathfinder that led us there as long as 6103 follows through on this preclinical all the holders have hit the jackpot.

No it wasn't! That was a global pandemic with a very short lifespan, this is cancer that unfortunately will be with all of us well into future generations.

I'm fine with anyone sharing any cancer development or breakthrough - if you find yourself unhappy with such news then you probably need to have a long hard look at yourself.

Equally it's laughable to think that competition might prevent a meaningful return from here, for a company valued at $400m in a field with 100s and 100s of $b's to go after.

I suspect between the drugs coming through including Avacta’s own pipeline by the mid 2030s cancer’s stain on the world will be a mere fraction of what was it was through the 20th century and the earlier parts of the 21st century.

That’s what investing hundreds of billions does to an industry.

In September 2025, just eight months ago, the lithium spod price was $620/t, the tin price was $35k/t, the copper price was $4.6/lbs & the tungsten price was ~$540/mtu . Today the lithium spod price is $2588/t, the tin price is $57.5k, the copper price is $6.58/lbs & the tungsten price is ~$2300/mtu.

That's a more than 4X increase in lithium spodumene, that's a 65% rise in tin, it's a 45% increase in copper and it's a 4-5X rally in tungsten.

And now each of these projects are being worked up and there's the Geological Survey of Finland amongst others at Uis working to integrate the lithium.

Fundamentally it doesn't get better than this.