I think we view this opportunity quite differently then Hexam. I've been arguing for months that there is little value in any of the miners around the $30-$40k mark as profitability is minimal whilst hash rate massively expands.
Now take Corz for example as it's a company we were discussing over the weekend. At the start of the year BTC was at ~$45k and Corz was at $10.43 / $3.4b mcap. Today BTC is $22k and Corz at $2.10 - theoretically BTC merely needs to return to 30% short of its ATH to see Corz back around $10.50, a 5 fold return, in a reasonably short timeframe. If BTC surged to $100k in 2022 Corz would v likely be $30+. Back in early Jan was there any chance of Corz 5 bagging and going to $50? Virtually none. Of 15 bagging? None.
Now of course the downside risk is greater today than it was on Jan 1st and there is now a chance of losing 100% but from Jan 1st 80% has been lost which is still the majority of one's capital. I'd much rather be investing at a point where yes the risk of bankruptcy is higher but the upside is many times what it was before.
It's not what I expect, it's what has happened traditionally with higher than normal market uncertainty - investors turn to gold. This time around they aren't.
And yes I've always called bitcoin beliefcoin as that is all it really is, but if there are enough that believe and adoption continues to increase then it will continue to go up and there's money to be made. Millions of people believe in the four year cycles, enough to create a self fulfilling prophesy so I see enormous value in investing in a beaten up miner that is able to ride through this period before surging in the next rise.
I'm closer to your line of thinking Calamari than I am the opposite - but bitcoin's advantage is that it's already well known, has a large market cap and is deemed by many as 'digital gold' - there is no chance that a whole load of coins become stores of value but one, that's possible and if there's going to be one it will be bitcoin.
I'm here because I believe there's at least one more bull run in bitcoin - catch the right miner at the right price and we could be talking 10X or more.
Retail is finished for now, that we can pretty much say for certain. Many will have clung on and those that haven't will be disillusioned for a little while. It's HNW individuals and institutions that may decide soon is the time to dive in, not in a gung ho all or nothing Saylor style but in a more prudent fashion, deploying a percentage of their cash.
There is no easy solution out of this mess bonker. Raise interest rates and we'll likely see at a minimum a hard house price correction as well as further hardship on the stock market but act slowly to deal with the rampant inflation and it might just become untameable.
The Fed also claims the economy is strong so they appear to believe they can hike interest rates without full blown economic chaos.
Anyone else thinking along the same lines as me that the Fed might surprise with a higher than expected 1% interest spike tomorrow? Get the tough reaction out the way and show they are serious about bringing down inflation...
ha that made me chuckle. If you're talking about Will Clemente he seems genuine to me and has at least predicted $22-$23k as the bottom for a good few months (we don't know if he's correct on that yet) but hope Raoul Pal isn't back making predictions - Ethereum was meant to be about $15000, only 92% short of his forecast.
RE: BTC fall and liabilty on loan13 Jun 2022 13:53
You really think MSTR are going to be in a position to start acquiring companies with the debt they're sitting on? They are really relying on their business intelligence operations to start showing profit again if they are to get themselves out of trouble (or bitcoin increasing, obviously.)
RE: BTC fall and liabilty on loan13 Jun 2022 13:19
The miners will potentially cause this bear market to be much longer and more painful than it would otherwise. By HODLing through the bull market many are now forced to dump not only their newly minted coins but also their reserves down here in the mid 20s which adds further constant selling pressure. That's up to 27000 coins a month + whatever their reserves are, not to be sniffed at.
RE: BTC fall and liabilty on loan13 Jun 2022 12:48
Absolutely but it explains how they got it so wrong. Not just Argo, all of them. They got greedy and were too concerned about short term sentiment vs long term security. They were probably scared of being an outlier and calling it wrong too, after all if BTC had soared to $100k and PW was selling down at $50k he'll have got a lot of stick.
I don't follow many of the miners in detail but whoever has the most cash on hand should benefit enormously from the bear market - whilst access to capital tightens those with cash should be able to buy up rigs far cheaper and as difficulty comes down any expansion in hash will mine an ever greater number of coins.