Member Info for HarChris

Apologies BV, really that should have read 'many of you have this wrong, listen to BuenaVista!'

It makes sense, it allows the company to present totally fresh updated data at ASCO next week rather than have all the topline results already released.

Agree re talking heads who rushed to claim results were stunning.

How can it be the new data? It's the same PFS as given in December, it's the same number of patients etc do you think they stopped treating patients from October (clue, we know they didn't).

There's a few bits of new info which is positive (neutropenia is v low compared with Dox) but yeah it's definitely the old data.

I'm just wondering if we'll get anything from the company to explain this or we just have to wait until next weekend.

You’re all wrong! This is an abstract placeholder based on October data cut off, it’s the 19 patients from SGC discussed in December with an additional 8 patients across the other two cohorts (a fact we weren’t given back then).

This isn’t the data being presented at ASCO, that has not been released yet! Looks like we will have to wait til next Friday or even the Monday after for that as it’s presented.

I’m hoping a tweet this morning st least to explain this.

It appears the data is once again cut from October with 19 SGC patients and 8 across the other two indications. All that is new is the side effect profile which is vastly improved, especially as neutropenia is the most common grade 3 event with I think often more than 50% of Dox patients seeing grade 3 or 4 neutropenia whereas here just 11%.

Most bbs have a nutcase that once lost money and can’t let it go - we’re not special to have Coco!

The debt is too high to escape from, the only way out of the debt is via equity but down at this level it’s prohibitive. So the only way out is a meaningful profit posted that (despite the market’s full knowledge of the debt situation) sees a rerate of share price to say 1p and then as big a raise as possible to pay down more debt.

It’s not impossible but as each month passes without a discernible step change in performance it becomes ever less likely.

I try to ask myself if there's any benefit for Nick to keep trotting out the 'should cover all G&A costs' re Raglan without actually being able to show that in the months ahead... if they go and deliver puny numbers then he'll lose a lot of credibility.

Suggests to me that from everything he's seen over these past months he does actually believe that statement.

The below is a joke before someone accuses me of accidently typing that on the wrong account!

Christina is ramping, claiming Avacta is about to revolutionise this space to allow Hughes and Bryant to unwind today for a profit - very sneaky, we see you. Abstract this evening will show 6000 is a dud!

Well when it comes to SGC Christina made it as clear as day that the FDA simply require additional data plus further time for PFS to mature, not stronger data, so if the additional patients dosed and observed since the last readout five months ago provide that additional consistent data then it follows that it’s enough.

I reckon most if not all agree with my statement re the data expectation, they just aren’t all buying in because they’re not convinced it’s necessarily going to move the share price dial…

Nor am I in terms of immediately moving the dial but I do think we’re edging ever closer to the point where the science wins out here. And possibly a matter of weeks/months.

In late March Avacta chose to raise just enough to extend runway by six months implying that that made the best financial sense with what was to come this year. Next week they start releasing updated 1b data, data they will have had full line of sight too when making that financial decision in late March and with that knowledge Hughes bought an additional £500k worth of shares. Bryant purchasing £50k too.

I’d be astonished if the data releases next week and in June disappoint.

And that is to be dwarfed (not just exceeded) by Maddens which shows just how much free cash flow could be delivered in the not too distant future.

Obviously there's been better communication between management and Heights or they wouldn't have changed the terms to begin with...

Whilst all they care about is a return that also means they want to maximise returns and if they are buying more into the development here there's every chance they hold off those deferred payments until the time agreed (October 2027) with an expectation of being able to sell at multiples of the 75p in which they will be received at.

It turns on a dime with this share - wouldn't be surprised if we get that flip today what with the full abstracts from ASCO being released after hours.

A lot to prove over the coming months for sure within the current cash requirements, absolutely have to show some positive numbers coming out of Raglan and some signs of what Maddens is capable - do that and raising any additional cash will be a doddle. Fail to deliver and it'll come at a less savoury discount.

I'm sure i'm not the only long term holder still excited by the potential here though.

It's unusual sure but it's also unusual to beat the PFS of the best current treatment by at least a factor of 2 in phase 1.

For a disease that's so hard to control displaying a 90% disease control rate with enough of a sample size should hopefully see regulators move on this. We know from December that 11 patients from p1 + 19 in p1b wasn't enough but they went away and added further patients since so hopefully this bolstered sample size will be enough.

Zinc price just a smidgen off four year highs too. And a good 15-20% higher than when acquisition took place suggesting SKA got a good deal.