Member Info for HarChris

Yeah I've certainly learnt to avoid unfunded companies / those that aren't unequivocally heading in the right direction.

And also learnt to ignore what management says re funding - if they claim they are good for X months they are almost certainly raising in X-3 months time.

I agree with all that you're saying except you won't accept that the cash they require for the next stage, which if implemented successfully opens everything up, is tiny relative to their assets and is only 50% of the money they are owed n VAT rebate. So whilst it's not ideal to be waiting that bit longer they haven't found themselves in an impossible position, they have found themselves in a situation where they need a further £1m capital in the short term to ramp up to a profitable level and they have £30m worth of assets to back any loan against and are owed £2m in cash from the Madagascan government.

IF they then fail to make strong progress then we start getting into worse territory with poor funding options but the short term funding needs aren't a big problem.

Likely it will be tons of shares executed at 3p and the share price will fall back to that.

Something to think about in the future rather than today at 1.8p.

It proves/adds weight to the long term copper price narrative which will vastly increase the value of the assets Arc owns as and when discoveries are found.

No, and once the dust settles on this (another week or so?) I imagine focus will turn to the ever growing copper hype as copper price has started taking off and reaching 52 week high.

Ps look forward to watching your vid!

The valuation can't really go any lower now (relative to financial situation) unless there is further fear created regarding foul play/suspensions, hence what is happening now.

If you were genuine you'd just sell and be off quietly into the night. The fact that you're willing all these allegations made by yourself and one other (possibly the same person) to be true proves you aren't.

Auditors are independent and they signed off the last accounts so either they grossly failed in their duties last time (and every time) around or you're milking the current situation for your own gain.

On the topic of ABDX they just put out their interims - have nine months of cash remaining (from 1st Jan) but forecasting cash break even by the end of 2024. Such fine lines now between success and failure in this climate, if they are telling the truth about reaching break even and not just claiming that to bolster their ability to raise.

Completely agree about Oxford Biodynamics Kaeren, really worth a deep dive into their company although I don’t think it likely that Novacyt end up acquiring them - YG will probably be the biggest and they’ll be looking at bolt on acquisitions instead.

Take a look at Abdx though, promising product and a growing business and another running out of cash - gone from £30m mcap a few years back to just £8m now. They’ll probably end up sinking another 50% so could be picked up for around that price (£8m) later this year.

Nout to be worried about on this front for now, it appears to be a very specific part of northern Moz. Also the likes of Syrah and many other miners adjacent to TGRs as of yet undeveloped assets aren’t having any issues.

‘Additionally, heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Cabo Delgado region, where some of its concessions are located, and the ban on exports of local wood, have further contributed to this strategic decision. ’

Absolutely, that’s why we’re at 5p.

All it will take is some operational improvements and signs of management listening (one can hope!) and this turns quick - still prefer that position than being a £4m company with no history of success attempting to raise nearly $40m - ie a near impossible task in this climate.

Another competitor forced to raise at a lower and lower price. Started 2024 at 28p a share, just announced a placing @ 9p a share for ~£10.5m.

OBD will have a market cap of ~£28m, with just the cash they raise (£10.5m?) and revenues of £0.5m a year and a cash burn of £10m a year (£10m operating loss two years in a row).

And still they get investment for the potential of their tech - remember that when knowledgeable YG holders tell us that their Ranger tech is going to be worth hundreds of millions in the future. Novacyt have years to reach profitability with their cash position and likely increased cash position following the dispute.

Well if all higher than expected US inflation can do to gold is push it down to $2157/oz then god knows how high this might go when the Fed starts cutting.

That's right, yet to produce any revenue and have £300k cash as of June so now just over £100k going by best case cash burn. £100k against a $38.6m capex requirement for stage 1 of their graphite project

I think i'll stick with hoping TGR can turn things around vs the likes of ACP.

CJ it wasn't me that called it a shi* or bust tomorrow, i don't think it is either.

We could really do with a thorough update from Craig though whatever the outcome is tomorrow to tell us where the last ten weeks has left us, compared with the update we had in early December.

Good on you Amers, this is certainly an attractive level in which to load up.

https://*********************/media/tirupati-graphite-advances-graphite-exploration-in-madagascar-amid-global-demand-surge/id/20357

They could raise £1m at 5p but no way is it worth increasing the share count 20m for...

There's a lot of work they can be getting on with whilst they wait for the VAT rebate such as stabilising production at 1200t a month, appointing a CFO and two new NEDs and releasing the updated resource after the exploration update the other day.

Sadly there are still question marks hanging over this even if BMN collects the rest of the initial subscription funds from SPR tomorrow - what is then going to happen in regards to the rest of the funds? BMN are due $13.2m from SPR for 50% of Vanchem, $3.7m when Mokopane transaction completes and also a $25m-$30m working capital facility later this year.

And there's also the delayed $3.5m from Acacia too.

The only surprise is how well the share price has held up - 2.1p at the start of the year before any of these problems were known, 1.4p today - far from total capitulation.

Tamesis has a target price of 75p based on POG at $1950 for 2024 and $1950 for 2025. But if we see $2150 for 2024/2025 that increases EBITDA from $25.5m to ~ $32.5m and for 2025 from $34.4m to ~$45m, against today's mcap of $57m.

AND then it's 2026 when an even sharper increase in production is expected as seen here:

https://twitter.com/Serabi_Gold/status/1767542059995394089

It's worth noting that other brokers for other goldies have started forecasting much higher gold prices for 2024 and beyond.