Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Yeah share price decline followed by weeks of consolidation has always given us the bottom and more often than not it’s been at about 40p. We’re finally in the ‘positioning for dispute resolution’ zone so fully expect this to be more like 70/80p before outcome is announced, with maybe a dip in June if there’s not going to be a settlement and it is to be at the behest of a High Court judge.
If the dispute
We were always likely to see a strong rise after a substantial period of share price stabilisation. It’s happened many times before and has even more reason to now with the dispute resolution so close.
I still think it misleading to imply that historical debt reduction has any read through, it doesn't. Debt has actually come down considerably in the last year or so, mainly because Argo sold Helios and a load of brand new machines but it's not the biggest of positives, having gone from a growth stock to a survive-at-all-costs stock.
As for 80 BTC mined if you mean for April then yeah that probably is about right seeing as the halving doesn't occur until the later in April. As for May though I would imagine it will be 60BTC tops but more likely 50BTC.
Well if they were generating cash for two more years they'd also see a big jump in mcap and would be able to raise their way out of their biggest issue, to at least a decent degree.
Their last hope was a huge rally and significant raise before the hosting agreement came to an end but with the halving that's dead and buried now.
I think we're largely in agreement though - Argo is unlikely to exist this time next year.
'I'm not convinced the halving is the end of Argo'
It is though, when you add in what you then went on to write.
If, like now, Argo were able to generate ~$1.5m cash pm then that would start to open up options re finding solutions o the hosting agreement problem but now the cash generation that will have been going on for a couple of months is disappearing in two weeks time that narrows their options even further, as they will also be needing to raise too just to keep the lights on.
As Kaeren has just pointed out this is just mere speculation. On my part it's to highlight the sheer undervaluation here, that for example a loss making diagnostics company that is cash-strapped and at most able to raise a few million in the coming months in return for a significant chunk of the company is valued at more than a third of what Novacyt is currently.
And also how Novacyt could partner and take a significant interest (less risk, time and energy of TO) for petty cash.
Tekina, that's all well and good but it took a placing and the dumping of their last saleable asset to get the debt down from $70.3m to $54m. How do you suggest they get the next $16m down, and the one after, and the one after that?
The halving is about to drown them.
In this market publicly sharing that you run out of cash next month (they had to for going concern) does not give you any negotiating power whatsoever. I don't really follow GDR but as an outsider it's hard to imagine they pull off a good deal in the eyes of anyone holding from 6p upwards.
Last week following the interims the share price sunk to 2.9p/£4m mcap as they revealed the cash situation and need to raise in the immediate term.
If GDR is a target then it would be savvy to offer 7.1p/£10m for the company with acceptance of offer entirely dependent on whether they manage to raise successfully during April.
As we speak the SP has already dropped below 7p.
All eyes on GDR though as it's a very interesting situation given the recent news. They've already stated a week ago that there's just one more month of cash (May) and will raise soon in what is one of the toughest funding environments in a decade or so...
Despite the positive news it's hard to imagine they'll pull off anything better than a 7p placing.
Well pay your money and take your chances... the next rns will either be VAT refund in the bank (share price soars), a placing at 5p (a fall), or CFO/new NED related.
I see value at this price still.
You mean, like, offer all the funding GDR needs at market rate, preventing GDR from the inevitable protracted discounted placing that's coming? £3m at 7p a share would give NCYT a 25% stake in the company (after dilution) and would build a partnership that could be beneficial to us in the future.
I'd be pro this approach alongside acquisitions.
Last year a quarter of the production was hedged but that contract was ending in Feb/March so if there has been a year extension it would be above $2000/oz this time around.
I'm not sure we'll see hedging this year with how strong the balance sheet is.
Rightfully Shanta Gold shareholders are currently up in arms about the attempt to sell off the business on the cheap to the founders, with the CEO Eric complicit. However I thought it interesting to look at the share price appreciation since that Dec 20th acquisition announcement and see how it compares to THX... surely SHG's share price has been suppressed because of it whilst THX's has been free to soar north with gold now at all time highs?
Dec 19th, day before acquisition was announced - SHG 12.65p, THX 14.25p
SHG has therefore seen ~15% gains since and THX has actually seen a small loss!
POG rising from $2050/oz to $2300/oz and even more importantly the highest average quarterly gold price ever and THX makes no gains.
I think the US price is about $28/kgV currently so for BMN and its premium products that would be around $30/kgV.
from last week - largo sells roughly a third of its output to europe and a third to the us
'nearly every speaker at largo’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results conference call talked about the challenges the company faces because of low vanadium prices.
in response to a question about how close largo is to marginal costs given that v2o5 prices are $5-6 per lb, ernest cleave, largo’s chief financial officer said that largo’s 2024 v2o5 cash cost guidance of $4.50-5.50 per lb means “at current prices we’re seeing of $5.90 on the market, we will not be making cash at those levels. but it’s very hard for us to forecast where things go.”
primary production represents about 20% of global supply, according to paul vollant, largo’s chief commercial officer. primary producers are losing money at current prices, vollant said.
“the other type of production, either from steel **** or what we call secondary sources from, oil and gas manufacturing, it is indirect cost, which is very difficult to have clarity on. but yes, we’re seeing the oil industry struggling at the moment,” vollant commented.
declining vanadium prices had a significant impact on largo, resulting in a 7% drop in fourth-quarter revenues to $44.2-million compared to q4 2022 and a 13% dip in 2023 revenues to $198.7-million compared to 2022. revenues per pound sold in 2023 fell to $8.66 compared to $9.38 in 2022.
the european v2o5 price fell 22% in the fourth quarter and 31% year-over-year, with the most recent price hitting $5.90 per lb, cleave said.
largo’s cash operating costs excluding royalties were $5.30 per lb for 2023 compared to $4.57 in 2022. several production problems and an accident resulting in a death plagued the company last year.'
I know we've seen recently that int. prices don't correlate exactly with local prices but there is certainly positive correlation over the medium term. Besides the six month spike in late 2021 through 2022 we're now seeing 10 year highs:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil