Member Info for HarChris

It is very ignorant to assume that everyone understands the science as little as you. It's also true for me, I don't really understand the science, but I'm sure it's not a level playing field when it comes to that, clearly many understand it more than others. Many understand it better than you or I.

Fortunately unlike your typical pre revenue AIM business Avacta’s cash burn is relatively low vs valuation. Just a 10% dilution at current price could fully pay off Heights and extend runway to early H2. Any deal with upfront cash would mean less than 10% dilution to fund Avacta right through into 2028.

The Heights debt was at one point 26% of the market cap, today it’s 5%.

Previously the finance trumped the science, now with what lays ahead of us in 2026 the science trumps the finance - as long as the data shows what we’re hoping for I have no doubt Hughes and the board will navigate the path ahead successfully.

Abstracts are tomorrow evening after close, hopefully means an RNS Friday morning.

Yes a trading update is very much expected soon but HUD hasn’t ever kept to a schedule for these updates so late/delayed is simply your own interpretation. They’ve always put them out when it suits them, usually a few times a year. The AI overview related to actual regulatory deadlines - for that the full year results need releasing by June 30th.

As there’s so much transition going on right now it’s not a big surprise, I’d expect more of an operational update at this stage than trading update as I’m sure the handover to Peeko will mess with the numbers over the period.

I just want to hear there’s enough cash on hand to progress to profitability and that the margins are seeing improvement. Also some detail on the traction being seen by the new revenue streams.

‘How many times do we go around this circle.’

_________

It’s you going round in circles. We know it works for SGC and we know it’s already well beating what will be the primary end point in the pivotal registrational p2/3 trial, we’re just waiting to find out how much by.

SGC alone isn’t a company maker (it does alone justify current market cap ) but next we have the drug that worked even better in preclinical which has been in human for six weeks and all murmurs from management are extremely positive.

We don’t know yet for certain how transformational pre|CISION will be but we certainly know ‘it works’.

No.

Or sudden developments from Goantagab supply agreement going Andrada's way.

Other than that the best we can hope for near term is the jig plant adding a couple more dozen tons to the quarterly contained tin figure, anything over 300t would be a meaningful boost, lowering the royalty alongside the higher sales price with hedging having ended. Over 300t would bring in a lot of quarterly cash.

You must go mad at times the way you sway wildly to and fro in your views!

They aren't late? They have til June 30th to public the results, they are just later than last year.

That AI overview is referring to actually missing deadlines which HUD haven't, they've got six weeks to release these results.

I did look, you never mentioned it back then, only later after my post. You’re never on top of the details here.

As for your other post yes many of us really do trust Christina and do believe what she tells us and I’d say we’ve been right to since the start of her tenure with the share price roughly doubling. Most of us would have hoped for more but it’s been consistent annd steady delivery and unwinding Alastair’s diagnostics and CLN mess is still a work in progress.

Over the same two year period your precious MATD has fallen 66%. Just saying.

You weren’t even aware of it / thinking about it until I brought it up on here for discussion and now you’re going to repeat it all day long. So tedious.

As to what I wrote earlier that’s the worst case scenario and my own reading is that those clauses are only put in there to allow Heights to cash out if Avacta has rerated following the TNBC / p1b data release. It’s why those two payments are at Heights discretion as to share/cash as it gives them an option of sorts. Rerate allows them to demand shares at 75p. Otherwise we’re back to just one payment per quarter ie 4m shares. Back last year when the quarterly payments were truly hurting Avacta there was more like 8-9m shares being issued per quarter ie a much bigger drag.

The deferred payments are due October 2027… yes Heights can accelerate them post upcoming readouts but they will be looking to maximise returns now so aren’t likely to want to be a drag on the share price unless it’s soared way past the 75p ceiling. Well past. And if it has then that’s not a concern for today at 83p.

So in reality come July Heights are almost certainly not going to accelerate both deferred payments and probably neither. Most likely this year Avacta will simply need to suck up 4m shares issued late July and 4m in October. Not the end of the world vs 2.5m daily volume and if data releases have led to some sort of commercial deal or partnership then expect that volume to rise significantly / raise enough upfront cash to give the option to go the pay off route instead of shares.

Heights were a big problem with the share price at 30p and with £28m still to repay, they are much less of a threat with the share price at 84p with £19m left to be repaid.

Let’s be honest, Avacta are currently funded til about January. They won’t leave it til the 6103 readout in late December to finalise funding so the next injection needs to come as part of a 6000 deal around the two conferences in May/June or at least licence out/deal on a pipeline asset. If that doesn’t happen and ava6103 is knocking it out of the park then I imagine they change strategy and release an earlier 6103 update (possibly sharing a complete response or a few partial responses) and then look to raise off the back of that.

An interesting couple of months ahead of us that’s for sure. As for Heights if all goes to plan then they’ll likely dampen a share price rally at times but shouldn’t prevent the share price running well away from the current 83p level.

There is no risk cash-wise for Avacta from Heights, it’ll almost certainly be shares at 75p if there’s no Avacta cash injection in the coming months from a deal… it would be frustrating to be back cycling through all those shares again though so it’s crucial the next six weeks (with the conferences and data releases) goes to plan so there is optionality as to how to cover Heights payments (upfront cash from deal, placing to sticky holders) or sentiment is strong enough to allow Heights to sell freely into the market.

MT has been saying the same thing for multiple days. Sold and hoped to buy back in the 70s. Fine but why we need to hear about it? If everyone shared every trading thought they had this bb would sure be tedious.

You've been happily sitting and watching from the sidelines since you flounced off the site at around 45p.

Not quite right i'm afraid Alde... just Jan and April payments this year were deferred. After these p1s results ie end of June Heights will have the option to accelerate the satisfaction of those Jan/April payments and from October accelerate one extra payment per quarter. So by my understanding they can demand Jan and April payments in early July and then back to normal July 21st and from Oct 21st demand an extra payment ie in October accelerate the Jan 2027 payment.

After that there will be barely any of the bond left to repay but there's a lot of shares to issue over the next six months if Heights choose to accelerate unless Avacta can somehow raise the cash (deal with large upfront cash?) and pay it off that way.

She certainly emphasised that for TNBC the lifting of the cumulative lifetime limit is crucial. Previously many of the patients were as much as half way to that cumulative limit before first dose with ava6000 due to prior anthracyclines and with that no longer being an issue.

Here comes Brian!

It would be a pointless question for AI to try to answer because the vast majority of posters don't make predictions on the share price, they discuss the company and developments.

Both arguments valid, it's a war of attrition where both have plenty to lose but also need to hold out for the best deal.