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A lot of companies have either merged, di-merged or been bought during that period. You neglect to mention the profit from those companies and more importantly dividends. The FTSE grew rapidly from 1986 to 2001 peeking just before your start point. It regressed from 2001 - 2009 and has grown fast again from 2008-2021. £10k invested in 1986 with dividends re-invested is now worth £195,852. Annualised rate of growth is 7.75% or after inflation (ARR) 5.05%. The last 10 years has actually seen average growth 7.38% with lower inflation. I do think the FTSE has under-performed compared to other markets and see some current upside to investing. This is a mature market which is unlikely to grow as fast as others in the long run. It has been a good dividend payer and a good history of companies acquired at a premiums for investors. There's a nice 50p dividend (£5bn pay-out from Tesco arriving on friday).
If an investor had bought £1,000 of the shares of all the companies on the FTSE 100 on January 31 2001 and sold them on July 31 of this year, she would have lost £63.48, a price return of -6.3%, even before you take inflation into account.
The agenda in the US has now moved towards "it doesn't matter how large the national debt is". We can expect more stimulus USD900bn, then USD 1,900bn and then some more. The IMF has now said it was a mistake to curtail Greek spending in the financial crisis, so we could expect more political pressure to do the same in EU and UK. This approach will weaken the dollar but also stimulate the economy and spending. It will create more global cash that needs a home and the FTSE has benefited from this in the last 4months. I think the FTSE will still move up this year. Corporate earnings are predicted to rise 36% in 2021, resumption of some dividends and hopefully Covid restrictions removed. I see 7,000 being hit in the next couple of months, a summer pull back and then finish above 7,200 a year end. All unless debt becomes an issue again for those who are never going to have to pay it back.
Unfortunately I can't add a chart image here but I drew support and resistance lines on the daily and it shows a very clear ascending triangle with FTSE breaking the lower line today. A close below 6740 and ideally below 6670 would help confirm this and target support at around 6420. DYOR but it looks a good short trade to me with a stop at 6820 for a 3-1 reward/risk.
Denby you are not a Muppet. But stock market does not equal economy. Some rare stocks even benefit from downturn. So even in HARD TIMES, it's not a guarantee of stocks going down. Stocks only represent parts of the economy, not the whole. On top of that, it eventually reflects the best parts of economy as poor stocks fall out of the indices.
We haven't been in that position since being crippled with debt and infrastructure destroyed after WWII so unless anyone is over 75 I don't think we have ever seen that time. We are still 5th largest economy in the world, although most likely to have been overtaken by the 1bn in India now. By land mass we are the 2nd most productive nation in the G20.
I said a few months ago that FTSE is cheap when it was under 6000. Some negative Muppets objected. I say it's still cheap. Undervalued comparing to some other markets. Now that we know what brexit is like, there is no hindrance of uncertainty. FTSE will rise to 8000 and until it does, it's cheap.
And I didn't even mention Brexit uncertainty...for those numpties who predicted such. I think commodity prices are driving things this week plus maybe we've become immune to the pain of lockdown. Whatever, it just shows how investors need not to panic and to take a long term view. Fingers crossed...and everything else...for swift vaccine roll out and effectiveness...and full dividend reinstatements....GLA
Yea been 95% invested since October 100% since brexit done.Been banking on fast roll out vaccines in uk and see how effective they are at stopping COVID.Uk has so underperformed it was only matter off time before it catch’s up.
The FTSE has been the star performer since October but was the worst performer overall for 2020. It is still some way below its highs and still represents the best yielding national market . The pound is up but against the dollar is still closer to lows than recent highs. International inflows to the ftse are strong, recognising the cyclical and value nature of the stocks, under valued pound and also the over-blown brexit fears. the markets are looking beyond the next 6 weeks to ever higher commodity prices and a release of savings into leisure spending once the lock down is over.
So, with the prospect of a full lockdown for at least 6 weeks, restrictions to probably last for a year in some form or other, a double dip recession looming, millions forecast to be jobless and a colossal budget deficit with furlough and support packages being racked up etc etc, the FTSE rises by around 5% since the start of 2021. How can/will this be sustained?! One thing is for sure, you can never second guess the market. GLA
Pretty good Denby, hit 6315 then bounced The bounce was reasonably impressive. So some shares may not go as low as they did again after today whilst others will sink more. There will be winners that will never go as low again and that's what these dips are for - bargain hunting