Member Info for KarlTaylor

I think you are looking at old debt, and since the last debt review Marstons have reduced debt by about £80m:

"Leisure analyst at Shore Capital Gregg Johnson points out that net bank debt stood at £183 million at the end of September 2022 while total debt including securitisations and long-term property leases stood at £1.21 billion."

Marstons Trading update for the 42 weeks to 22 July 2023:

Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs for the 42-week period were +12.0% on last year.

Dividends from CMBC are expected to be £11.0 million in H2 of FY2023.

Reduced by £50-£60 million at the end of FY2023 (around £1b now).

Compared with Mitchells & Butlers Trading statement covering the 43 weeks ended 22 July 2023.

Like-for-like sales in the year to date to 8.9%, with total sales growth now of 10.5%.

From Half Year results: 17 May 2023 07:00

Net debt reduced to £1,193m (HY 2022 £1,253m), excluding £467m of IFRS 16 lease liabilities (HY 2022 £483m)

So if comparing apples apples, then Marstons are very very undervalued:

Michell and Butler: Locations = 1700

Marston: Locations = 1500

Michell and Butler: Debt: £1.4b

Marston: Debt: £1b

Michell and Butler: MCAP £1,314m

Marston: Debt: MCAP £203m

Spelling corrections:

MAB has more debt than Marstons.

Marstons also has the 40% stake in Carlsberg Marstons, which gives then retail sale revenue, and better margins on alcohol sales in their pubs.

Considering the Platinum Equity takeover bid of 105 a share for Marstons was rejected as being too low, the BoD must see a ton of upside from here.

I personally would love to see another aggressive takeover bid with a third party buying 30% from the open market to force the BoD to the table and agreement.

MAB has move debt than Marstons.

Marstons also has the 40% stake in Carlsberg Marstons, which gives then retail sale revenue, and better margins on alcohol sales in their pubs.

Considering the Platinum Equity of 105 a share for Marstons was rejected as being too low, the BoD must see a ton of upside from here.

I personally would love to see another aggressive takeover bid with a third party buying 30% from the open market to force the BoD to the table and agreement.

Look at the price divergence around October 2022 and then another big divergence on March 2023, between Mitchells & Butlers plc and Marston's.

Considering both companies are roughly the same size, same debt, etc.. it means that the marstons share price has a 300% rise to match.

1: NAV is 95

2: Compared to Mitchell and Butler, Marstons is 500% down. (they have similar debt and rev/profit)

3: There was a takeover bid of 105 in Oct 2021, and the BoD rejected as this price is "undervalued".

Marstons have done the hard work of:

A: New Carlsberg Martson partnership is better profit generating

B: Site consolidation to yield better profit from their estate

C: Site consolidation, with property sales reducing debt

D: Debt is being reduced and fully handed and inflation coming down

Michell and Butler: Locations = 1700

Marston: Locations = 1500

Michell and Butler: Debt: £1.4b

Marston: Debt: £1b

Michell and Butler: MCAP £1,314m

Marston: Debt: MCAP £203m

Are things being equal Marston Share Price should currently be in the 60's

Wagamama owner The Restaurant Group has increased its full-year profit expectations in light of strong sales growth at its outlets, defying a gloomy picture for the UK casual-dining sector.

TRG, which has been under pressure from a group of activist investors over its languishing share price, said its revenues in the six months to July 2 were up 10 per cent year on year at £467.4mn and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation stood at £36.3mn, an increase of 15 per cent on last year.

The group, which also owns the Brunning & Price pub chain and Italian-American diner Frankie & Benny’s, said on Wednesday that the stronger than expected trading performance supported a “moderate increase” to full-year expectations for adjusted earnings.

Source:

https://www.ft.com/content/613f96b1-d8f4-43e8-829e-1dd91d04ec55

The last week of trading has been strange.

Looks like the MM are doing everything they can to drag it down and eat up all the free shares.

Usually this is a great indicator they the are expecting great results.

Trading update out on the 11th October, so could see a fast re-rate back to the 60's based on NAV and other costing factors.

Time to shut shop and sell to a property developer to bulldoze the whole pub estate and build social housing and flats.

@NoloServileCapis, also come to think of it, how many of the 1550 pubs have big car parks.

Seems like a great opportunity to bulldoze all these pubs and build big blocks of flats.

Would be a fantastic opportunity to marstons and flatten all the pubs to turn into social housing.

government are doing all they can to flood the country with migrants that dont drink but need somewhere to live, so it would be a great opportunity for some party donors to make alot of money.

@Supercharger, I prefer my plan currently, this will mean a 150% profit from here to any buyers now.

Would prefer to see Marstons have a takeover bid for £500m now, and get the estate sold off to a property development company to make way for social housing.

Buy the company for circa £500m and turn all the properties into flats, and sell off the whole converted residential property estate to a property managed firm for £2b, and pay off the £1b debt to make £500m profit. Easy flip.

You could even throw away the 40% stake in Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company as it would be worthless without the Marston's pub estate in place.

Carlsberg will panic, one of their big revenue streams in the UK is the Marston pub estate gone and they would be reliant on retail sales and the mercy of rival pub/brewery partnerships.

So really, as a way to protect themselves it would actually be wise for Carlsberg to buy up as much of the current free float of Marston shares to have a controlling position.

Realistically the only thing that the CMA can do is ask for prices to be fixed for a period of time.

Considering all the factors outside of CVS hands (inflation, and niche employment market), it would be wholly unreasonable for the CMA to ask for price reductions.

CMA should focus on the energy and housing markets, those are the 2 areas that are ripping consumers off the most.

Based on the Trading update in July 2023, it would appear that Marstons are tracking for a very very good year, and reduced Debt.

So what are people expecting for the October 2023 trading update?

July 2023:

"Like-for-like sales for the 42-week period were +10.7% vs FY2022. Both drink sales and food sales have been strong, demonstrating the steadfast trading resilience of our predominantly community pub estate.

Like-for-like sales in the 16 weeks to 22 July 2023 were +10.9% vs FY2022, reflecting the warmer weather in June, which enabled us to maximise the return on investment in our outdoor trading areas undertaken ahead of the summer months.

Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs for the 42-week period were +12.0% on last year."

I would love another takeover offer for 100 again, surely if that happened then the BoD would have to accept based on current SP

Very big spread, any buys are making the price jump fast!

Expect that there is very limited free float and any decent buys this will rally fast back over 35 levels.

Things are looking good, company moving to profit, and solid bottom has formed.

great time to buy and hold for an nice easy profit.

Can see this jump up to the 100's fast with a big buyer.

Price has evened out and solid bottom formed.

A fund will see the big profit opportunity from here, so expect a big consolidation buy to happen next week.

More and More big buys coming in!

01-Sep-23 12:03:07 872.50 8,561 Buy* 860.00 880.00 74.69k O

01-Sep-23 12:03:07 872.50 8,561 Buy* 860.00 880.00 74.69k O