Member Info for KarlTaylor

The company is barely worth £50m.

Hopefully the sell of the coaches for scrap will cover the debt.

Going to 20 - company bankrupt - and your mother hate you is that the shorts keep saying.

but i believe in you long term holders that have been here since the 130 region.

despite everything pointing to this company going into administration.

Spend your lives climbing the mountain, at the top only a tomb awaits, in time it will be covered in snow and you forgot.

your lives are meaningless.

There is no god and your lives are meaningless

The BoD need firing and the company needs to be sold to FlixBus for £1b.

I think its time that FlixBus start sharpening the pencil and prepare to takeover Mobico while the price is low.

Hopefully get a takeover for £1b.

If the Mobico BoD cant turn the fortunes then its time to fire them and bring in new management.

@KGinvest, FlixBus getting a £3b IPO, so would have some lovely funds to hand.

Flixbus would then have a massive pan-European and USA transport network, using this larger profile to get better rates on new vehicles, and cost reductions with streamlining overlapping transport lines.

It would be easy for FlixBus, as they have experience and history of takeovers to expand, and would be easy to get the funds from JP Morgan et al to finance the deal.

If ever FlixBus was going to launch a takeover bid, now would be the time before Mobico price starts to move north.

@KGinvest, now is the period we will see high levels of takeovers while companies are on average 70% down on their MCAP from March 2021.

I personally would love for FlixBus to takeover Mobico. Look at FlixBus takeovers:

1 January 2015 MeinFernbus Received investment from General Atlantic [31]

2 July 2016 Megabus Europe Stagecoach Group Stagecoach became an operating partner [32]

3 August 2016 Postbus Deutsche Post German bus lines [33]

4 May 2017 Hellö coach network Austrian Federal Railways (ÖBB) Austrian bus lines [34]

5 April 2019 Eurolines and Isilines Transdev [35][36]

6 August 2019 Kâmil Koç Private equity firm Actera Group Turkish bus lines [37]

7 October 2021 Greyhound Lines FirstGroup U.S. bus lines; price was $78 million

@JG68, read through the trades over the past week, vastly more big buys than sells.

The sells at the moment are snipes and mostly autos being triggered.

Fair value for this company now should be in the MCAP region of £1.7b = £2.5 a share!

First Group £1b MCAP, and arguably in a worst situation than Mobico with smaller market.

The current pricing for Mobico is complete BS.

I just hope either FlixBus or a fund put in a takeover offer and move ownership to a foreign country.

@Jcj07, yes compared to the sells the buys the past few days have been massive.

Seems like forces in the background are working to keep this share pinned down so they can load.

lots of value here, and funds using the summer lull to buy up shares cheap.

as usual come September this will pop by 30% overnight for no reason...... the stock market game is irrational and not for the faint of heart.

The selling of the travel biz smalls of desperation, however it could be just a rational restructuring.

What do the smart money and people here think?

I can make heads nor tails if this is a value trap.

10-Aug-23 11:39:54 85.95 236,000 Buy* 85.85 86.05 202.84k O

Basically, adapt to the times and become embedded for guaranteed revenue streams and improved profit.

Link to their evolve strategy:

https://www.mobicogroup.com/about-us/our-strategy/

To summarise:

//// Reinvigorate public transport

Grow use of public transport in cities suffering congestion by building partnerships with stakeholders who want sustainable solutions.

//// Multi-modal expansion

Build more modal capability and city hubs from existing locations where we already have a physical footprint

//// Operational transformation

Application of our best-in-class processes and know-how to drive efficiency, operational improvement and lower costs

//// Fill the transit gap

Encouraging modal shift away from private cars in areas that are not well served by public mass transit

//// Consolidate & compound

Consolidate fragmented markets and create ‘at scale’ operations to drive operating efficiencies and better customer solutions.

Looks like a very big transformation is coming with public transport becoming dominate again due to the costs of running private cars.

mobico are now perfectly placed to become a dominate force and grow very fast to big profit streams:

https://businessnewswales.com/number-of-gen-z-owning-cars-predicted-to-fall-drastically/

Lots of big buys after hours, this is gearing up for a massive re-rate back to the 120's!

Circa 2 million shares in 3 buys today.

09-Aug-23 17:11:25 85.77 38,805 Unknown* 85.80 86.35 33.28k O

09-Aug-23 17:06:36 86.454 187 Unknown* 85.80 86.35 161.67 O

09-Aug-23 16:52:41 86.25 750,000 Unknown* 85.80 86.35 646.88k O

09-Aug-23 16:45:00 85.80 22,652 Unknown* 85.80 86.35 19.44k O

09-Aug-23 16:37:02 86.45 3,442 Buy* 85.80 86.35 2,976 A

09-Aug-23 16:35:17 86.45 281 Buy* 85.80 86.35 242.92 A

09-Aug-23 16:35:17 86.45 602,850 Buy* 85.80 86.35 521.16k UT

It would appear that someone was hawking for a big buy and the drag down was timed with summer to sneak the big buy through.

however, looking at the sells for the past year there has been little actual big sellers and major holders have kept their relative holder sizes.

plus there is a 1.8% short position still to be closed, and they will be looking at this current price as a motivator to close.

can see this re-rate back to 120 levels very very fast.

Nice big buys starting to happen:

Buy:

09-Aug-23 13:59:15

Shares: 750,000

Value: £646.88k

Expect that the funds are moving shares across they have been eating the past few days.

Will expect to see the share price pop after hours when trackers re-align.

Can see this move back to the 100 region very very fast.

Nice big buys starting to happen:

09-Aug-23 13:59:15

Shares: 750,00084

Value: £646.88k

Tree shake from April 2021 has been impressive.

Bottom is here, bad news out, new contracts coming online, and debt dealt with.

Fair Valuation for the company circa £1.5billion, so about £2 a share

@Hindy86, £1.5b for Mobico with all its tangible assets and contracts is very cheap.

Could see FlixBus as a good company to make a takeover play using leveraged funds, its been their growth strategy for the past 10 years.