Member Info for KarlTaylor

Yesterday there was over £1m in buys and they kept the share price suppressed, and again today big buys:

01-Sep-23 11:48:57 872.50 14,830 Unknown* 860.00 880.00 129.39k O

01-Sep-23 11:48:53 872.50 14,830 Buy* 860.00 880.00 129.39k O

01-Sep-23 11:45:48 870.00 14,830 Unknown* 860.00 880.00 129.02k O

Spoofing the price and with very large buys happening.

62K Shares traded today and they have managed to keep the price stable.

Looks like they have managed to sneak through £500k worth of buys today.

"Good news, investors! Naked Wines is still a bargain right now. My valuation model shows that the intrinsic value for the stock is £0.90, but it is currently trading at UK£0.66 on the share market, meaning that there is still an opportunity to buy now.

Source: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-retailing/aim-wine/naked-wines-shares/news/when-should-you-buy-naked-wines-plc-lonwine

"Today Naked Wines has over 300,000 angels in the U.S., as well as thousands more in the U.K."

"For sparkling winemaker, Penelope Gadd-Coster, who has made wines for Schramsberg, Mumm, and J Vineyards, there are other benefits of working with Naked: “The reason I joined Naked is because I tried to start my own brand, but found that sales, marketing, finance and administration took me into different spaces. Here they let me do what I love best - making sparkling wines.” "

Source:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lizthach/2023/08/29/naked-winess-unique-business-model--where-consumers-become-angels/

All the bad news out and results now past.

ii will be loading up to average down and add to share trackers.

should move back to 20 fast and this sideways for a moment.

“We congratulate National Express Shuttle and Transit and our PART staff on winning a 2022 NCDOL Safety Award,” said Scott Rhine, CEO and General Manager, Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation. “It reflects a dedication to maintaining a safe working environment and providing efficient, effective, and safe public transit service to citizens of the Piedmont Triad.”

https://kalkinemedia.com/news/world-news/national-express-shuttle-and-transit-wins-gold-safety-award-from-north-carolina-department-of-labor

More reasons that Mobico will become a transport cash cow:

"The soaring cost of car insurance is driving hard-up motorists, already struggling with rising road tax and fuel prices, to sell their vehicles.

Car insurance is now the third-biggest household bill, behind council tax and energy, according to the comparison site Confused.com.

The Independent revealed earlier this month that average premiums rocketed by 48 per cent in the 12 months to June 2023, according to exclusive data from the analyst Consumer Intelligence."

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/car-insurance-prices-driving-car-sales-b2400452.html

Looks like private investors are turning up now its end/start of month to buy up shares on the cheap.

Would expect a lot of the free float to get eaten up fast while at these low low prices.

The share price is currently down 41% compared to the covid drop in March 2020.

Let that sink in, how insanely cheap this share is currently.

Nice buy of 1,776,506 shares, maybe by Flixbus to get ready for a takeover?

@Jcj07, why are you against the idea that Elon might look at Mobico and see a cheap takeover which within 5 years they could fully convert to an electric fleet and start the conquest of public transport.

have some vision, you will see further.

Why would tesla do this = I think people fundamentally misunderstand Elon and his bigger mission for humanity, he has been clear that the objective of Tesla is to make electric vehicles ubiquitous, hence why they made a lot of Tesla patents open source, and taking over a major coach/bus/public transport operator perfectly fits this objective.

Another reason why Tesla would see mobico as perfect takeover target, Space-X. A goal of Space X is public transport across the world, ergo, having a land based mass transport network that supports this is another reason for a takeover.

The whole point of investment is to look into the future.

Why would tesla do this = I think people fundamentally misunderstand Elon and his bigger mission for humanity, he has been clear that the objective of Tesla is to make electric vehicles ubiquitous, hence why they made alot of telsa patents open source, and taking over a major coach/bus/public transport operator perfectly fits this objective.

Another reason why Telsa would see mobico as perfect takeover target, Space-X. A goal of Space X is public transport across the world, ergo, having a land based mass transport network that supports this is another reason for a takeover.

The whole point of investment is to look into the future.

Tesla - now has the Semi Truck in production = less than 2 kWh per mile, Semi can travel up to 500 miles on a single charge. Recover up to 70 percent of range in 30 minutes using Tesla’s Semi Chargers.

Tesla can takeover Mobico, then move to Electric Buses with a ready build transport network in place for instant revenue generation, plus getting the mobico depots gives land for automated cars to park.

Uber = they have hit peak with taxi and food delivery, and with automation still far away they need a new revenue driver for share holders, public transport would be a perfect fit, buying Mobico with infrastructure in place is a quick win.

Didi - massive expansion globally, however they have gaps in their US/UK/EU markets that Mobico would fill.

FlixBus - growth by acquisition, and taking over Mobico doubles their network and removes a competitor.

For new investors =

As it stands Mobico are an essential business with a strong business moat.

Mobico are currently weighted down by short term debt, and macro economic factors.

Future Mobico prospects are good with recent revenue growth into new geographic regions (USA, Germany, Spain).

Things to get share price back to fair value =

Positive company Statement on debt management and Revenue/Profit.

Takeover bid - I personally believe that Telsa, Uber, DiDi, or FlixBus should attempt that now.

Change in macro situation - end of Ukraine war and/or decrease in inflation.

Increase in a major holders position or a new major holder.

As i said in earlier posts, in the immediate term a takeover bid is the best way to give the share price a valuation to take it back where it should be. The current price is sheer lunacy, however an investors dream.

I see this as a perfect takeover for Tesla or Uber, basically companies that are already in transport that can leverage funds to takeover Mobico and roll public transport, as with the 15 minute city concept that is happening to the "west", now is the perfect time for them to capitalise.

The reason why the markets are struggling to move back up is currently:

A) high interest rates, so leveraged available cash used by funds is down

B) pension and equity funds have had a run on customers pulling money - see point A

However, the good news, cash rich funds are looking to buy up the market, so we will now see a rush to hover "cheap" shares over the next couple of weeks.

Mobico being cash generative with secure government contracts and being a fundamental service are "safe", and they have debt under control, so all realistic surprises are out and this makes the view to the future clear.

fair value for the company is in the £1.7b range, so £2.5(ish) a share.

The sell off and drag down is classic August market melt down, however given how mess up the market, and with a lot of equity/funds pulling money out of the market, the dive had a lot of catalysts.

However, this has been the final clear out that was needed, and has given us PI an amazing opportunity to make lots of easy money.

Looking forward to pay day to through my whole wage into more shares here, and every month buying on the way back up.

Fair Company value is in the £1.7b range, so there is crazy profits to be made on a company that is key to the UK and even in the worst situation will get a bail out.

As I said on the 12th August 2023:

"75 to 85 seems to be the range for the next few weeks."

So thank you to all the weak hands and funds for panic selling to give me my 75 entry point.

Anyways, this will be at 160 by end of October, so grab em while you can.

The share price will move because of institutional investors, PI are small fish in the grand scheme of things.

The sell off by M&G is the reason for the drop over the past few days by the looks of things.

M&G have cut position, like Liontrust and Juniper Fund, because millionaires and billionaires are pulling funds out of equity funds due to their leveraged debt suffering higher interest rates.

So as the mega rich get punished, in turn they pull funds which is trashing the whole market.

However, Mobico are in a good position, in that they are essential.

The best outcome for the next few weeks is for a hedge fund to take a mass stake in Mobico while its at historic lows.

Otherwise, now would be the time for a takeover offer.