Thanks for that Brom, worst case scenario flies easily through their metrics. $4+ per barrel, 14 wells per drill pad added in a modular way. Assume we would pay costs from first oil or farm out. Company has a great future imo
Question is what value the market will eventually place on 88E pre drill. I can easily see a scenario where we are valued at £150m+. This puts us at over 2p. If we get a COS along with the target recoverable from each target the market will begin to realise what we have here. Unfortunately the short term news driven nature of O&G exploration investment means that we might not see this being priced in until towards the end of the year. BUT i believe plenty will be watching this with the idea that they can get in at sub 0.8p.
My thoughts are what does this mean for the HRZ farm out. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to do this now with the funded drilling. Unfortunately we have no idea if the HRZ fairway extends that far and I doubt it is in the optimal location for a HRZ drill (speculation). It should provide good data but might impact future farm out deals negatively if we don’t get good results. Of course if we get net half a billion barrels on the conventional it doesn’t really matter but personally I would like to see a HRZ farmout before the drill for risk mitigation.
Hoping we’ve seen a bottom here at 0.7p. Nice level to invest and not the frightening 0.5p that is a possibility but I think would be way overdone. Bit of positive news would be nice but basically wait and see for Q1.
RE: 250k block buyer arrives into close yesterday and back today13 Sep 2019 12:03
Target "the Company will then drill further wells and install two RF antennas at a 3 metre separation to undertake the test, as it seeks to recover oil from the Company's Holliday Block using TurboShale's RF technology. Subject to a successful test, the Board expects that initial production will be 5 to 10 barrels of oil at this stage of the programme. "
Result ".....melted bitumen on the ceramics of one of the RF antenna..."
We have raised a lot of cash as we have tried to prove up the assets ourselves. That isnt cheap. Now we are selling off the assets to get someone else to pay. Hopefully we dont sell off too much, cash comes with the HRZ farm out, the oil starts to flow, and the drills dont over run and incur us costs. If that happens no more cash raising.
Indeed. But I’m basing my valuation on the very real prospect that we will be able to maintain 3500 bopd on full production. Very undervalued currently. Anything else, Kimmeride, isle of white, Portland lookalikes are all icing on the cake.
Horizontal flow rates will make or break this in a big way. Capped at 3500 across 6 wells we only need 580 bops from each well. The vertical is currently stable at 360(?) from a fraction of the pay zone that we will be flowing from on the horizontal. I’m not sure about the sp drift, maybe if we had seen a huge spike already but we haven’t. The amount of news and excitement around this just keeps spreading and building. We haven’t yet seen any rise from the rig confirmation or planning confirmation so plenty of scope for steady sp rise between now and flow rates IMO. News from other assets has also been discounted. I’m in so understand I want to believe the best case senator but all seems to be lining up, risk coming right down and SP still very cheap IMO.
Yep, 11 working days left and 6 of them are next week. Assuming SS got on the blower and approved the rig straight after the planning meeting could turn up next week. Yes plans have been pushed back and pushed back but it’s pretty clear now what the reason were. I don’t think a deal will be done with the little leech on the side of our oil tankers so all focus now on the drilling and moving forward other assets in preparation for free cash flow.