Someone said 'churn done' - what planet are you on - just picked up another $43m worth of shares, $30m of which will be at a 20% discount and $20m which carries a 12.5% coupon. This will take years to work its way through.
I see that this is loss making and has a bit of debt, does the scale of the ramp up justify the current mcap? Seems heavy considering just 6m revenue in 2022 so likely to still be loss making even with all the large pharma contracts?
People talk about getting better financing terms as if it’s inevitable. This company has huge debt and loses a lot of money. But dint worry Africa will send this to the moon… no wait…. Atomic will blow the doors off…. One sec…. we found 1bn barrels lying around it will be massive… All the while big salaries paid and the one money comes from shareholders and debt. I’m sure we will be able to buy out the Chinese because we are on acreage that has sent so many companies bankrupt before us.
RE: Another quick jump up, another RNS lodged?20 Apr 2022 15:40
Tomorrow looking like £3.55 if there is no update.
An update will take it to £5+ IMO
How much + will depend on the reason for the delay and whether the latest contracts are included in the update. If it was merely a PWC delay and the EL contract is included then £6+ is doable after a week or so. The analysts will be srabbling to lift there price targets that's for sure.
Seems that only Permian is taking note of what is going on outside of the company official announcements. We've pretty much had a guarantee that there is no material issue with the accounts. Permian already own a sizable chunk so will be bang up to date with their DD. The fund only has a few holdings so it has no choice other than to watch them closely and react immediately to any news or shifts in price. They see this as a massive opportunity and I wouldnt be surprised if they continue to add up until he accounts are released.
Personally I wasnt a holder before the accounts issue so its presented a nice opportunity to get in a good company at a very good price but I would be very annoyed with S4 if I had been a holder. They basically wiped off a huge amount of value due to unclear comms. Just one additional line in the RNS would have prevented a £1bn sell off, and refusal to provide a clarification update following the sell off just beggars belief.
Anyway, I think this is a great company in the right place at the right time and wouldn't mind holding for a year or so to see £10.
“we confirmed that the results would be in line with market expectations, the range of market expectations. So I think that's very explicit. If there was anything material to report of significance, we would be obligated, both PWC and ourselves, obligated to report it. So I would just say, just stand by for further news.”
Third quarter update:
Year-to-date Revenue up 101% and 56% like-for-like · Year-to-date Gross Profit/Net Revenue up over 91% and almost 47% like-for-like · Year to date like-for-like Revenue and Gross/Net Revenue profit two year stack up 65% and 63%
Plenty of oilers have over 1 billion of oil in place. Just look at 88e - multiple billions of barrels under their land. All that matters is whether you can get it out commercially. Until the wells are drilled we won’t know what is there and what can be extracted at what price.
So 16 wells this year, conservatively that’s £80m. We are already maxed out on the credit card, can’t afford repayments and potentially have a deal going through which will take all amour cash. In the meantime we are not meeting our production hedge obligations and we need to spend a lot of money of a pipe for the Shannon facility. We need clear guidance on where this money is coming from. A large placing and more debt means it’s a make or break year for COPL, currently producing 100bbls from the last drill isn’t going to cut it, even if it was a vertical we are looking at around 3x on the horizontal - not huge numbers for the cost and considering the hedge shortfall.