Member Info for Element1

Hi Martin

Genesis is the best comp they had June quarterly gold production of 70,767oz taking FY26 production to 285,400oz. - similar Mcap to us

https://www.listcorp.com/asx/gmd/genesis-minerals-limited/news/business-update-3373102.html

Geneis $520m cash - Underlying cash and equivalents build of ~A$258m (March quarter A$253 million) before investing ~A$78m in growth and exploration (including ~A$36m to fast-track Tower Hill), A$13m on stamp duty in relation to the Focus Laverton acquisition and A$247m cash payment relating to the Magnetic Acquisition. Payment of A$14m in PAYG income tax instalments during the quarter Cash and equivalents of A$520m at 30th June (A$600m at 31st March) after ~A$352m of outflows during the quarter relating to acquisitions, stamp duty, growth, exploration and income tax instalments.

Vault $842m

VAU ($4.3B) - Vault produced 337koz gold in FY26 (Q4: 89.3koz), meeting guidance, and closed with $842m cash and bullion, no debt and fully unhedged | up 6%

Not if renewables prove cheaper to the consumer of energy... Fortescue reckon they will save $1.5bn per year in diesel alone.

A reminder of my June quarter results posts :

June Quarter Results25 Jun 2026 09:23

My estimates

Av Gold price $4410 (down from $4871 previous Q)

Production circa 86koz (up due to longer quarter of production and no shut downs, as far as we know and new equipment and better strip ratios )

Revenue of US$379m plus $126m in copper = US $505m/ A$728m - (almost 3/4 of a billion dollars Revenue)

Cu estimated at US$126m A$183m for 11kt of copper at weighted av price US$11,500 up 11% )

AISC A$2200 / US$1526 at low end of guidance and hopefully even lower (due to elevated diesel offset by elevated copper prices)

Cash flow - Gold $4410-$1526 AISC = $2884 x 86,000oz = region US$248m / A$357

SO Total A$284m to A$288m in free cash flow added to the balance sheet (includes a payment of circa $73m in tax)

Yup - circa $280m cash banked...

Ongoing Telfer expansion Capex should be A$30-40m

Closing Cash A$1,468bn (includes $12m interest and -ve40m in capex) so almost 20% of our Mcap is cash at hand.

Of note ATP price still over $3040 per 10kg = Tungsten deal is coming

We could more or less afford to buy Antipa Minerals with this quarter's free cash

Absolutely nothing 96dc2 ...

Looks like we have a seller somewhere (or a shorter trying the luck against gold price macro...)

When gold turns hard the next few weeks and we report huge cash flow beats, and decent production beats and huge AISC beats again

They presumably will close and we'll jump

But regardless - Oil Prices have collapsed 42% from the cycle peak in May

I'm not I'm suggesting its cheaper to dive an EV. My Scarcity comment related to Hormuz not future oil production.

China went into complete oil lockdown during the war to preserve supplies.

Or the economy is slowing..

However - There was a point made recently by Andrew Forrest on a podcast yesterday quoting a former Saudi King.

"It's essential to keep the oil price below £80 - because if we don't, we're finished!!! "

What he meant was that if oil gets too expensive, the green energy transition accelerates... and the world realises sooner that Renewables are cheaper.

I just discovered myself with our second hand Tesla Model 3 long range. I had to drive 5 hours to Scotland with the kids for a climbing competition. Do I take the Tesla or the Discovery 5? - I took a punt and tool the Tesla - .... having failed to fully charge it the night before.

Cost of return trip to Edinburgh :

Discovery 5 - at Least 1 full tank of fuel minimum £150

Tesla ( having failed to 100% charge I left with just 50%). £27

Just a no brainer ....

Inconvenience factor? Tesla remarkably Low - I had to charged 3 times ( 2x 18mins and 20mins and 1 x 6 mins )

ie next to zero on a long run as needed a rest breaks and to eat)

Cost factor £150 vs. £27 - Taking The Tesla paid for both my accommodation and my dinner.

This is why oil's days are numbered... And Andrew Forrest knows his onions.

Hi Speedy I think that fact is that oil demand is weakening... People are using less fuel because they recognise the scarcity.

So Far speedy they are dead wrong... Oil is collapsing.

Continued....

Why does Hedgeye care?

Their message is:

Inflation is no longer the biggest risk.

Instead:

High real interest rates are becoming the risk.

They think the Fed may be keeping policy tight even though inflation is easing.

⸻

What could happen next?

If this continues, markets often react like this:

Good for:

Cash

High-quality government bonds (eventually)

Defensive sectors such as utilities and healthcare

Can be difficult for:

Highly indebted companies

Small-cap stocks

Commercial property

Cyclical businesses

Gold is interesting because:

Rising real yields usually pressure gold lower.

But if the economy weakens enough and the Fed starts cutting rates, gold often performs well again.

⸻

Relating this to Greatland Resources (GGP)

Since you’ve asked about Greatland Resources before, this is relevant.

Initially:

Higher real yields tend to strengthen the US dollar and weigh on gold prices, which can be a headwind for gold miners.

However, if these high real yields eventually slow the economy enough that the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates:

The US dollar often weakens.

Gold prices can rise.

Gold mining shares, including Greatland, may benefit.

So this chart could be interpreted as a short-term challenge but potentially a longer-term positive for gold, depending on how the economy and central bank policy evolve.

In one sentence, the chart is saying:

“Inflation is fading, but interest rates are still very high, making money expensive. If that continues, it could slow the economy and eventually force the Federal Reserve to cut rates.”

That’s why many macro investors are watching these trends so closely.

Hedgeye just produced these 2 chart in their Macro themes Pack - two key slides on Kevin Warsh and the new Hedgeye inflation nowcast thevery best inflation data available

https://ibb.co/rfkXBhVS

https://ibb.co/W4vjGCqT

Point 1:

INFLATION has peaked it Peaked in MAY in the US and is now in a downward sloping trajectory. (thats bad for 2 year yield and the USD and good for gold)

Point 2 - Kevin Warsh and his options:

I could initially interpret the Kevin Warsh slide as very positive for gold (and bonds) and I implored the Telgram group to examine it closely... Within a few minutes complaints arrived that it was effectively "Double Dutch to them" so a smart individual took the bull by the horns and asked ChatGPT to analyse and interpret the Kevin Wash slide in plain English... (nice work pal)

The interpretation AI provided was frankly excellent and very understandable - so I'm pasting it here:

Kevin Warsh Slide

This chart is essentially saying “the market thinks inflation is coming down, but borrowing costs are staying high.” That’s important because it can eventually slow the economy and affect stocks, commodities, and gold.

Here’s a simple explanation of each chart.

1. Left chart – “Nominals = Curve Flattening”

These are US Treasury bond yields (government borrowing rates).

Orange = 2-year

Blue = 5-year

Grey = 10-year

Black = 30-year

The highlighted area shows that:

Short-term rates (2-year) have stayed relatively high.

Longer-term rates (10 and 30-year) have stopped rising as much or are falling slightly.

This is called curve flattening.

In plain English:

The market believes the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for now, but doesn’t think they’ll need to stay high forever because the economy could slow.

⸻

2. Middle chart – “Inflation Expectations = Collapsing”

This measures what investors think inflation will be over the coming years.

The lines are all moving down.

That means investors are saying:

“We think inflation is becoming less of a problem.”

So:

Oil isn’t pushing inflation higher anymore.

Price pressures are easing.

The Fed’s rate rises appear to be working.

This is generally good news.

⸻

3. Right chart – “Real Yields = Ramping”

This is probably the most important chart.

A real yield is:

Interest rate minus expected inflation.

Example:

Interest rates = 4.5%

Inflation expected = 2.5%

Real yield = 2%

If inflation falls while interest rates stay high…

➡️ Real yields go UP.

That’s exactly what’s happening here.

⸻

Why does that matter?

Higher real yields make borrowing more expensive.

Companies pay more to borrow.

People buy fewer houses.

Businesses invest less.

The economy slows.

The chart even says “restrictive”, meaning monetary policy is now starting to squeeze the economy.

⸻

Continued...

Hi elcobbledore I'm just drafting a post on exactly that. - Yes in short I think bottom is in.

Greatland most recent production RNS shows:

They mined 6.761mt or Rock

And 3.630 Mt of Ore was sent to the mill

So broadly 51:49 % split between Ore and Waste

What Bamps is saying is RNS implies that ratio gets "much better" with the statement made. Where by ore to waste ratio could increases to 60:40 or 70:30

Ie much more ore IS produced for every UNIT of mining expended (ie sum of the labour / diesel / time cost ) put in..

These are the Key lines:

- Upside potential from Inferred Resources within the ORE mining shapes but treated as waste includes:

§ Open pit - Potential to convert 42% more gold from Inferred Resources that is treated as waste within the ORE pit shell.

§ Inferred to Indicated open pit conversion continues to occur at excellent rates (>85%), with further conversion having the potential to materially reduce the LOM strip ratio of the ORE shell

NB the reason they call it "potential" is because it's gold price dependent factor - obvs at $3200 gold it might be "waste" but at 4100 gold its "very profitable".

At underlines my key point: "High volume low grade gives highest torque to gold price" ... That obviously works both ways... So as gold price came off we were overly punished being a Lower average grade operation

Despite the huge undeniable impact of the gold price counter factor the big March MREs .... where significant value was created by the drill bit

J Simon dont mean to call you out but I will...

Gold +ve 2.5%

Oil -ve 1.8%

No wonder central banks buy it hand over fist

Hilarious they always appear at the lows these accounts never when it’s hits £7.80😂

A reminder of my June quarter results posts

June Quarter Results25 Jun 2026 09:23

My estimates

Av Gold price $4410 (down from $4871 previous Q)

Production circa 86koz (up due to longer quarter and no shut downs, as far as I know )

Revenue of US$379m plus $126m in copper = US $505m/ A$728m - (almost 3/4 of a billion dollars Revenue)

Cu estimated at US$126m A$183m for 11kt of copper at weighted av price US$11,500 up 11% )

AISC A$2200 / US$1526 at low end of guidance and hopefully even lower (due to elevated diesel offset by elevated copper prices)

Cash flow - Gold $4410-$1526 AISC = $2884 x 86,000oz = region US$248m / A$357

SO Total A$284m to A$288m in free cash flow added to the balance sheet (includes a payment of circa $73m in tax)

Ongoing Telfer expansion Capex should be A$30-40m

Closing Cash A$1,468bn (includes $12m interest and -ve40m in capex) so almost 20% of our Mcap is cash at hand.

Of note ATP price still over $3040 per 10kg = Tungsten deal is coming

We could more or less afford to buy Antipa Minerals with this quarter's free cash

No - Bg2025 - there's nothing to be aware of re GGP and the MRE - but shorts are simply targeting GGP on gold price weakness...

Make no mistake - The MRE was large and highly consistent 5moz reserve was excellent. Consistent with everything we know about Telfer and Shuan.

Obviously it omitted most of the highest grade new zones in the WDU - which is spectacular - and VSC which is a minor issue, but one that categorically is being fixed with more reserve definition drilling.

Today however - it's Sh*t show time. Buckle up. Buy more... or toddle off to the park for 4 weeks.

Personally I'm Hedging a bit - with a 3x short a gold miner fund I found via my broker AJBell and the 5x short Nasdaq with some spare cash. Still holding my GGP albeit its hard looking at the mens... and a few others that I'm committed to.

The ASX GGP shorts are simply "having some fun in the sun".

They pressure retail and weaker hands because they know we can be fickle... IMO They probably have a basic thesis that gold goes to $3800 zone - which, looking as that chart is potentially on - especially if the 2 year breaks higher - and they think enough GGP holders roll over near term.

Expect some severe and sharp whipsaw volatility... in the coming days. It's a short window - but you know what happens:

The GGP biannual white knuckle rollercoaster ride.

As I said that FACT stands INFLATION peaked in in May... And the Lon end of the bond market gets it. 10 year and 30 Year yields rolling over

These shorts have a relatively narrow window to play their game.

But play they will...

Remember They haven't won much recently, other than catastrophic losses.

When Warsh flips the narrative - which is obviously going to happen (from rate rises to rate cuts) - the reversal will be blistering.

There is only 1 way for US Debt and gold... And thats higher.

Oil more likely to go to $50 than $70

I have to say I was a little baffled by that… 2/3 possible explanations.

1) a very late report. Could’ve been from Monday or week or more ago that the trade went through (and maybe a sell consequently?).

2) fat fingers and was a buy at 6.22 not 7.22

3) someone in a hurry to load up late on Friday for some reason we don’t know… It was 89,000 shares - so I wouldn’t describe the trade as “massive” - we’ve seen regular £1 - £5m and the odd £10m and I believe one at £18m once before.

But it’s definitely a little unusual.