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Hey Presto ... Pretty juicy RNS that one.

10 Director buys.

There was once a time when £10.9m coming into the company was super exciting.

Now it's just meh...!!! 😂😂😂

Ps for those new to the company - 2.9% dilution was just vaporised.

Of course there’ll be a buying squeeze Pepsie...

It may not cause an immediate spike 100% , but it will absolutely underpin the price going forward.

Let’s break it down:

1. Retail (PI) Buying

Australian PIs currently can’t easily hold Greatland Gold. But from June 24, they can. Many well-informed retail investors are already aware of the Havieron deposit, thanks to growing coverage in the Australian financial press over the past year. Expect a wave of retail buying in the first weeks post-listing.

2. Smaller Institutional Buying

Next comes smaller funds that missed out on the possible 2.5% compliance placement. Many will be targeting $5m to $10m positions, and there could be dozens of them. That’s your second wave, likely to play out over the following 1–3 months.

3. Index Buying

From August to September, expect the very large index funds to start building positions—especially for inclusion in the ASX 200/300. That buying will likely be front-run by the likes of Regal Funds (Phil King) presumably during July and August. Then you’ve got the GDXJ and GDX rebalance later in the year either September or December. Plus - As Greatland's market cap continues to grow, these cap-weighted funds will be forced to add significantly in December.

4. Pension Funds

Pension funds are the dark horses here. If they want exposure, they'll struggle to build a 10–20% position on market without pushing the price aggressively. So they may wait for a structured capital raise or try to acquire shares via off-market block trades.

What About Newmont?

If you're Newmont, you’re not going to bleed stock into the market through brokers— that would crash the price, and they want certainty, not chaos.

Instead, I personally expect block trades at fixed prices to large institutions—especially pension funds—who might take 1–5% chunks. That’s clean, controlled, and in everyone’s interests. The market makers would try to lowball Newmont in open market drips.

The Bigger Picture:

After Friday’s BOD stock issue (presumably to be RNS'd Monday), there’s really no one left who benefits from a lower price.

Every aligned party now wants the stock heading higher.

I was wondering what triggered the spike in gold and the 1% drop in the Nasdaq after the US close on Friday. Turns out it was Moody’s — they downgraded the US credit rating, citing the spiralling national debt:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-05-16/us-credit-rating-cut-over-massive-government-debt-evening-briefing-americas

Presumably, this means the cost of borrowing for the US increases, further accelerating the debt spiral — since higher interest payments expand the deficit even more.

It raises the question:

Now that Moody’s has blinked, will S&P or Fitch follow suit — potentially pushing the rating down another notch to ABB?

"It's all about quality - its a balance between quality an value"

The rise will be stead over a 6 months period. No need to get a spike on listing. 25p-30p after 6 months.

Dave Franklyn Argonaut Fund Management “GGP the Cheapest gold you can own”. from 8 mins on gold.

Then listen from 28mins on GGP " Of note he’s 20% cash highly unusual for him and He’s increased exposure to BHP and Rio big time. He’s in Brazilian ionic clays…

But he highlights GGP as his biggest position: “a really interesting story” - "The economics, they just get better - the most value is key". "100% Paid back in no time." "Telfer/Hav cost them $750m and after 5 months they’ve generated AUD $300m free cash flow now sat in the bank" . "They get their purchase price back in cash in the first 12 months… 30% return on capital invested in the first year" - "Havieron has been missed by the market" "A very low cost project paid for in cash.. lesser scale, but better quality than DeGrey - “Greatland The cheapest “quality gold” : stock you can own” ... “ There’s a lot more ore at Telfer than the market understood” ... “Its an exciting story”

That's a credible, independent, fund management mining stock expert talking...

In the end it does appear, the truth prevails.

💥💥💥

Should be RNS'd on monday... RichPhil read this :

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GGP/surrender-of-director-and-employee-share-options-oeo8sganrt7ye7s.html

Hard to know the exact number but broadly $35m

"In consideration for the surrender of their Director Options or Employee Options (as applicable), the holders will be entitled to a cash payment of 6.64 pence per Director Option or Employee Option"

"Each holder will reinvest a sum equal to 50% of the cash payment due to them".

On the fifth business day after approval of the UK Scheme by the Company's shareholders, at a market price based on volume weighted average price"

It's broadly $35 Aud net cost to the company, but that saves us shareholders 2.9% dilution and depending on exchange rate etc about 90 Shares get bought tonight.

Its effectively the equivalent of a 2.9 % discounted buy back.

Bullish or bearish? 🧐

I mean that's a whopping number (above the Option price) 😜

You decide ...! 🚀

Hi Sageman - As I understand it they have to raise the 2.5% simply to demonstrate 'market interest' to ASX in the conventional way. But, yes - I see your point. Since we have to offer stock that way. Trouble is of GGP actually tried to buy 2.5% on market in the next few weeks it would ramp the price massively ( so I'm not that sure it would work even though its a nice idea)

PS: if gold stays in this zone for the next 11 quarters after that... taking us to roughly 2031.

Then Havieron's margin is a whopping $3802/ oz And we're immediately producing 100koz from Hav year1 ramping to say 300koz++ years 2-3

100koz x $3800 = $380m year 1

300koz x $3800= $1,216bn year. 2+3

= $2.82bn AUD in cash in the bank after 3 years.

Plus whatever we get from Telfer + WD u/g

( Telfer could in principal add a further AUD$500m to $1bn depending on WD Deeps per year )

This is why I'm invested: by 2030/31 if gold stays elevated, we could be sitting on $500m x 3 + 2.8bn = $4.32bn cash banked

(minus 30% tax = $3bn cash)

All ..... with 17 years Hav mine life ahead of us! Extraordinary.

And here's the kicker…

If the gold price margin stays where it is — north of AUD $2,800/oz — over the next 11 quarters,

we’re looking at AUD $230 million x 11 = AUD $2.5 billion in free cash flow.

Fully banked. All capex covered.

That means:

100% of Havieron funded

~AUD $2 billion in surplus cash

Then what?

Dividends?

A block cave at Havieron?

Strategic acquisitions?

Sweet mother of gold.

💥💥💥😂😂😂💥💥💥

*** of note this allows

Guys dig this calculation:

Forget a buyback — I'd much rather see capital deployed to fast-track production at Telfer. Say AUD $150 million to develop the West Dome Underground and another AUD $1billion to bring Havieron online makes far more strategic sense.

Crucially, we’ve got 11–12 quarters of Telfer production to fully fund Havieron’s 4.5Mtpa development.

If Havieron’s capex is circa AUD $1 billion - and we already hold AUD $400 million in cash - so wee NEED just $600m (of not this allows for an extra $100m earned so far this quarter to cover off the required Telfer capex and the share option cancellation),

THEN >>>>>>> this leaves just AUD $54 million per quarter required free cash flow to self-fund Havieron — without any external capital or debt just from Telfer revenues

OK - Assuming annual production of 300–360koz, as per company forecast - the margin of safety is ABSOLUTELY extraordinary.

Take the midpoint:

82koz per quarter

Telfer current AISC: ~AUD $2,250/oz

Gold price: ~AUD $5,086/oz

Gold price margin: AUD $2,836/oz → ~AUD $232 million FCF per quarter

>>>>> Havieron funded in 2.5 quarters of Telfer Production (at current gold prices)

Now here’s the mega point:

We only need AUD $54 million/quarter to fund Havieron to raise 600m

That means our gold price margin can fall by 77% (to AUD $1,250/oz) and we’d still self-fund development entirely from free cash flow.

Translated: gold could FALL to AUD $3,500/oz (~USD $2,242) and Havieron would STILL remain fully funded from Free cash.

READ THAT AGAIN!!!!!

The only caveat I can possibly contemplate is some massive technical disaster at Telfer requiring a huge Telfer capex injection — AND a lower price wouldn’t support major Telfer expansions, so West Dome Deeps might have to wait until after Havieron ramps.

But Telfer’s existing mine plan would remain fully viable : AND HAVIERON is built Debt FREE (if management choose)

That’s a phenomenal margin of safety.

All to deliver Havieron’s ultra-low AISC of ~USD $800/oz over a 20+ year mine life.

And let’s be honest — this cash position is already impressive… but it’s just the beginning. ASX are going to buy the bejesus out of the stock.

Poor man - Because they have a far better use of the cash... Building one of Australia's top 3 copper-gold mines.

Hardly RCM they just dropped it 5% to 12p on low volume to fill at 1,062,32 order at 12.3

This is just range trading. Gold is now breaking up higher again.. Great buying opportunity for those with cash. Traders posting their usual guff... Er nothing going for it bar the $250m++ free cash flow generated at the last quarter and gold 15-20% higher this quarter .... Duh

ASX buying will be commencing pretty soon I expect now the Scheme approved. `

It’s pretty simple. Pump Trump panicked over the market carnage he helped trigger, so he partially reversed his position. China, not wanting a trade war, obliged. The result? Trump forced a new "risk-on" position in US Stocks.

The dollar strengthened as global capital rotated back into U.S. equities. At the same time, bearish sentiment meant a lot of big shorts were forced to close. Fund managers, fearing underperformance, are now chasing the S&P 500 higher, despite clear and rising risks.

Today, gold sold off, a partial victim of the risk-off to risk-on rotation. Multiple high-quality miners were hit hard — both seniors and majors:

Kinross: –9.3%

AngloGold Ashanti: –8.88%

Gold Fields: –8.2%

Agnico Eagle: –10.07%

GDXJ: –8.3%

GDX: –7.8%

GGP: –9.42%

In my view, this is an overreaction. Gold remains well above $3200, which is about 3% higher than when most of these miners first traded at current levels in late March.

* 'life extension'

Correct Cullpeper that statement cut off short.

Basically he said he though that Antipa had done a really great job of telling the market Greatland was desperate for their ore (and he understands 'why' they would do that this) - then laughs out loud - but he says even I think with the lid extension we've delivered I think that narrative doesn't hold water... even if we got Minyari tomorrow, Havieron would beat it into the mill. Havieron is better and sooner: Minyari was a stranded before, it's still stranded today... it makes sense it comes through the Telfer mill ... at some stage, if it 'hangs together' .... but that's their burning platform, not ours... we've got all the time in the world!"

Sageman: To be 100% fair to Shaun he only stated "he expected 20x multiple to free cash earnings".

It's impossible to speculate what that really means to the SP today. Other than for this past quarter if broadly maintained (which may be unlikely) but if it was that's AUD $250m free cash x 4 = 1bn x 20 = $20bn AUD Mcap.

Probably more conservatively if we used Aud$200m free cash x 4 = $800m x 20 = circa $16bn (or broadly £8bn). Mcap

Ie an Evolution mining type valuation.

Yes I think that reflects that Shuan talks and works in AUD, but NCM worked in USD. And us UKP are more relevant to us. It's terribly confusing.

Tymers,

GGP’s fall to 5p was the result of a confluence of factors, but the primary driver was the exit of multiple US pension funds and institutions in March 2022, triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.

Let’s be clear — this wasn’t about retail investors (PIs). The real movers here are institutions and the gold price. PIs are mostly along for the ride.

Sure, some retail holders and smaller fund managers were pressured to sell as the price declined, but the initial trigger was the sharp rotation out of gold by U.S. "hot money", in response to tightening monetary policy.

Contrast that with De Grey, which has been more resilient — thanks to a specialist institutional register. Names like Gold Road and Jupiter Gold & Silver held around 30% of De Grey, giving it much greater price stability.