The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
So today is the meeting to structure the 1.5p pay out. So we should get some news flow that it is done and hopefully payment dates. It's a 7.5% return based on the current price and I'd imagine that Javier del Ser Pérez and family will plough that straight back in. Hopefully the cement business is picking up as planned. It would be nice to get a rise on this share from the lows.
Morning all,
Full year end is next week. It has been a long time coming!
Chatting with the CEO back in February she was optimistic of getting the end of year close statement out pretty quickly. Based on previous statements and the analysts report this can be expected to be really bullish. The weakness in sterling will also help our US income.
She expected FY publication of results would be September (when back from the summer break) rather than during. We chatted about the importance of showcasing our results in September given my view that they will look spectacular as the strategy will be fulling playing out (and with UKG dropping out of the numbers).
My view is the momentum YoY will be clear (2H 23 loss verses a 2H 24 £1m+ profit YoY). This should double the share price as forecasts looking forward to FY 25 will highlight a profit range of £2-£3m. On a market value of £8m!
We've had an interesting 30% rise in the last two weeks, on no news until todays release. I'm wondering if we're becoming a little leaky. That said, do I care, no. Not if the price is rising.
I am becoming more bullish here. Whilst none of the contracts announced in the last 12 months move the dial significantly, added up there is a significant boost to revenue. Re-reading the cavendish report (50p remember) I see no reason why we're not on track for this year. I move my own view from hold to buy and will start adding again once we drift down from this RNS. I own 0.1% here, and will move to 0.2 % pretty quickly.
With global equities at a high KMK should benefit from wider shareholders looking for opportunities (as should Newmark Security as previously tipped on this board at 50p - now 85p - I own 3.1% of that smaller business).
Good luck all.
Fundamentals remain strong. Well done all who held and purchased 6 months ago when for some reason (not based on fundamentals) we were at 129p. 50% gain since. Lovely. Plenty more in the tank to keep going rom here.
Re-reading the RNS trading update, we ought not to have fallen so low, but fortunately I topped up at 23.7p (okay so this was on the back of top ups at 26p, 29p, 35p).
Personally, I think we will see a continued rise into the June results back towards the 35p with positive market news flow, anticipated rate falls (not actual as I think we're now looking at August) and growing confidence. I agree MadMat, we will be paid our dividend from the trailed £20m in free cashflow.
Plenty of reasons to think we've bottomed out and we are on our way back up.
Here's a link to the earnings call transcript from yesterday. Perhaps this will fill in a few more gaps than the RNS.
I'd suggest that the buying is from investors looking out 12-18 months rather than the results of the last 12-18 months.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4683121-iqe-plc-iqepf-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript
A great turn around. CEO has had the opportunity to push through the hand he was dealt alongside horrible market conditions and now has the chance to shine. A multi bag opportunity from lows is in play if momentum continues.
I'd agree that under 20p was not expected but the trading update was hardly inspiring. Good news some cash is coming our way and let's hope this is followed by the market picking up combined with the summer price/demand rise they are expecting. I take some comfort that insiders continue to up their stake, its just a lost opportunity cost having my cash tied up as we bottom, rather than making major gains, which is happening elsewhere.
The family of the Company's Chief Executive Officer, Javier del Ser Pérez, has purchased 75,000 ordinary shares of nil par value each in the capital of the Company ("Ordinary Shares"), at a price of 17.96 pence per share, via Portola Group Limited.
Accordingly, the family of Javier del Ser Pérez is now interested in 19,078,115 Ordinary Shares, representing approximately 8.71% of the Company's existing issued share capital.
Agree Fevertreeman,
Whilst I regret being in at a higher previous price both here and in Speedy, both will turn at some point and we'll see a recovery in the price. I've topped up twice now sub 9p. With the asset sale so no need to call on shareholders for capital, the price will rise or we will be taken out. Patience will prevail.
I don't use any paid for services but I find Citywire an excellent free resource. Also Proactive Investor and Share Cast can have some pretty good stuff.
Citywire's Investment Trust Insider gives excellent content and with Trusts you'll lose some of the volatility of single shares (although sectors can get a kicking). They also push out single share and funds info. You can always buy ETF alternatives.
I hope you find this useful. Perhaps others can provide wider comment.
I'm all for taking profits but in my view we're going way past 50p this year. Why? We're in a very different cycle from 2024-2027 than we have been in 2020-2023. World risks aside, given the UK's / PRA stringent capital management approach combined with macro economic factors and interest rates I have us topping out around 80p in the next 24 months. I will obviously take some profits along the way but not at 50p for me.
Absolutely Hedgehog! Without the new HeSaaS strategy, the business was never going to get out of the rut of being reliant on year on year orders. Safetell was the prime example of being reliant of fitting out screens and protection for customers that were moving away from branches. With just install of entry systems GT's market was in a similar place. The software and clocks approach with licences was the game changer (although, HeSaaS is not without risk, remember Sony's and Nokia's OS before Android?) It doesn't always work but when it does it can be worth a lot of cash. The reseller model here is our big play, distribution is coming from partners confident in the product. It does the job and partners and customers are happy. Disruption is also hard (particularly as the Chinese product isn't liked in the US) if your customers and resellers are happy and this gives us a unique opportunity to make hay for a good while, embed our product and take a leaders position.
We are holding nicely in the 90's this is a testament of the fortune to me made here. Why sell when we are only valued at £8.5m and in such a strong position with a fantastic product/customers and margins. Stock is short so there is only one way for the price to go.... Up :)
Thanks for your write up Meconopsis. Really appreciated.
Your analogy with gin and whiskey is excellent. The impact of IRFS 17 on the numbers is little understood. As a long term JUST holder it has always been about the embedded value (up 34p a share 190-224p in todays results). The CEO's should perhaps try this with the analysts who themselves are still getting their heads around it...
- Aviva has a huge general insurance business that flatters performance when you premiums rise. It's much more of a gin business - you make it; sell it and take profit more or less immediately.
- LGEN is much more a whisky distillery - you make (actually sell) stuff that needs to mature (in the CSM+RA pot) and you realise profit later
- PHNX is more like a whisky dealer that's bought up lots of stocks that are slowly maturing can be incrementally sold over time.
On the dividend point. It is still a relatively young business so the cash it is throwing off isn't the same as the older asset rich insurance businesses. It also doesn’t have a huge customer investment book hat it charges fees on. Again, this impacts cash generation.
Don't pay out cash when any cash can be used as capital against growth , when the RRR is 13.5%+ keep it and grow.
There are so many good number in here. The 34p in underlying value growth per share is the one for me. From 190p to 224p. Thiat is real value set to be paid out in the longer term and bosts the liklihood that someone might take them out when the price difference is so great. I expect us to shoot past £1 and would expect £1.20 within a few weeks .
Our store of future profit increased 9% to £14.7bn (2022: £13.5bn), with CSM up 9% to £13.0bn (2022: £11.9bn), reflecting contributions from our growing annuity businesses and the routine longevity review in H2, and by the Risk Adjustment (£1.7bn) up 11% from 2022 (£1.5bn).
Hardware-enabled SaaS (HeSaaS): Dawn of a New(mark) Era -
What an excellent post and I totally agree. HeSaaS is the magic formula as Apple have proven (okay perhaps not the most realistic comparison). The point is however it is a bit painful to change your hardware and software and you'll likely lose your historic data. So once you have a customer and thing are going smoothly they are with you for good. You can increase your annual reoccurring fees in line with inflation and perhaps a little more, then you charge them to swap out the hardware every few years. It all adds up to a great revenue and customer model. Capturing share is important which is what NWT are doing right now....
On the valuation front, personally I think we'll get taken out before we hit £100m. Marie-Claire turns 60 years next month (April) and whilst she will be enjoying this strategy playing out, I am sure she'd want to be considering her exit in a year or two. We probably need the valuation to be at around £20-£30m (now only 2-4x current price 220p - 330p) for a bid to accepted around the £50m mark (550p). That I am sure will do all all parties! The crazy thing is that could easily happen in the next 18-24 months! Sit tight! Lift off is soon...
I don't keep a list of historical share trades but I take a look at LSE trades and regularly see blocks of 10,000 shares going through at the buy price which are tagged unknown*. There must have been at least one a week this year which leads me to the conclusion there is stake building going on by someone yet we have not had an announcement which leads me to conclude there is another buyer out there yet to hit 3%. Could it be multiple buyers - maybe, but most trades are tagged with a buy or sell. It is the regular re-occurrence of these 10,000 purchases tagged *unknown which is driving my theory. Unless a sale comes through in the next 20 minutes we'll hit that 8 year closing high and I'm lucky enough to be heading to the pub tonight :)