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Love it. £2m would be fantastic but I am less optimistic. Given the 2H 23 loss, and UKG, I am expecting a small profit for 1H24 but no more than £250k-£400k, I am expecting £800k to £1.2m in the 2H. I'd love to be proven wrong on the upside, more than £500k for 1H and we'll be on track for £2m. 1H revenue YoY will be cloudy because of UKG but that won't matter if the profit number comes in.
In 2 weeks we'll know for sure.
I think we need a little news/update to push higher from here. So bring on the 25th Jan.
It has been a lovely run into the new year and there is a great deal of comfort to be gained due to the lack of selling through the 60's and 70's. Clearly the majority of investors believe that there is significant upside from here to hold onto what they have - me included (in fact I might have added a little more :))
It should be remembered that the 1H 23/24 results reflect a period including UKG, but also a period where price rises were pushed through to other customers. And the likely bottom of the Safetell business before the rebound in revenue.
Whatever 1H 23/24 shows, we also know that this will be the bottom, with the 2H already positioned by the management as the stronger period. We also know that with our contracts and reoccurring revenue, in markets set to grow significantly, that 1H 24/25 will be stronger again (YoY and HoH) so there is literally only good news to come. Revenues, profits should all climb, debts repaid, forward invoicing costs reduced, so regardless of any short term volatility, buyers will come in and the floor price will continue to rise.
My end of year range prediction whilst wide is somewhere between 150p -250p by December. We achieved share price growth of 150% last year against what on the surface wasn't specular top level numbers (although if you know the background with UKG you know the underlying performance was strong).
So good luck all in 2024 with your investments. This one we know should be fun!
No matter how badly some think the business is being run (and yes things could be done better). EPS will still be around 30p+ this year and probably next with no big shocks hopefully on the horizon.
The question for management is what to do with all that cash, the dividend is 8p. Provisions are made then released, there is only so much investment to do. So what to do with the extra?
My view is that at some point the profits have to fall significantly (unlikely), or specials or dividend increases will be paid or the price will rise due to the market re-evaluation/or through buybacks.
My view is nothing is without risks (but PRA oversight helps UK investors more than we give credit) and the price looks wrong. A P/E ratio under 6/7 is temporary in the short/medium term. Time will tell.
THAL holdings in Newmark SecurityToday 14:09
Will THAL's holding in NWT be a catalyst to drive the price higher in 2024?
I've just taken my stake in NWT to over 3%. The rally towards the end of the year and an overall return on NWT of nearly 150% in the year makes THAL potentially another stock to watch in 2024. The 10% holding in NWT reflects nearly 40% of THALs market cap. At the start of the year it represented just 20%. So not all the value of this rise has come through into THALs share price or other assets have performed less well.
I'm with the recent finals commentary in the NWT could well become an acquisition target in the next couple of years. I'd expect a sale price in the region of £40m as being realistic and this is 5/6x the current price. I am certainly of the belief that we're only just at the beginning of a strong rise in NWT as the US continues to out perform, that Safetell in now growing again and the rest of the world strategy accelerates. Another doubling/ trebling of the NWT share price is on the cards in 2024 and this should reflect well on THAL.
By 2025 we'll be in the offer territory for a take out at £40m or so.
I shall potentially be buying here in the new year once I have done some further research on the other investments.
Will THAL's holding in NWT be a catalyst to drive the price higher in 2024?
I've just taken my stake in NWT to over 3%. The rally towards the end of the year and an overall return on NWT of nearly 150% in the year makes THAL potentially another stock to watch in 2024. The 10% holding in NWT reflects nearly 40% of THALs market cap. At the start of the year it represented just 20%. So not all the value of this rise has come through into THALs share price or other assets have performed less well.
I'm with the recent finals commentary in the NWT could well become an acquisition target in the next couple of years. I'd expect a sale price in the region of £40m as being realistic and this is 5/6x the current price. I am certainly of the belief that we're only just at the beginning of a strong rise in NWT as the US continues to out perform, that Safetell in now growing again and the rest of the world strategy accelerates. Another doubling/ trebling of the NWT share price is on the cards in 2024 and this should reflect well on THAL.
By 2025 we'll be in the offer territory for a take out at £40m or so.
I shall potentially be buying here in the new year once I have done some further research on the other investments.
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/newmark-security-plcs-lon-nwt-054612507.html
Wallstreet article now showing on Yahoo! that allows comments, so I have added mine, just in case there are investors reading up.
Merry Christmas all.
I've sent your feedback Provest :)
Hi Marie-Claire,
Great to see the RNS out today and the price is up again. The notification on results should set a floor under the current gains and generate further interest from investors keen to get the update that will come with the 1H results.
I'd like to bring to your attention a recent post from what I think is a new investor that has just bought in:
Title: Growth drivers
Will one of the biggest near term growth driver will come from the rollout of Primark stores in the US? 8 new stores this year and 60 by 2026, GT clocks etc should be added at each of these shops. There are 1,309 TJ Maxx stores in the United States as of December 05, 2023 so Primark needs to get a move on if it wants to be competitive. Its only a bit disappointing that NWT dont talk about this more, but I guess the lack of transparency gives insiders the chance to buy stock without telling the market where the real growth is coming from!
Just like when you explained the US model at the AGM -where we are super scalable and efficient. If the above is correct, it would be great if you could provide case studies (Primark or equivalent) at future investor updates. This will help that improve the understanding and make real for investors the opportunities, companies we support and how we will achieve the growth story.
Again potentially something to think about and plan to cover when you are holding the next updates.
Have a great Christmas.
Regards
David
Sent from my Galaxy
Marie-Claire has confirmed that the RNS with the date for the 1H results will be out this week. The results will be accompanied by an analysts note on the strategy and opportunities for growth.
Both are are suggestions of improvements we can make that Marie-Claire has supported.
I don't believe in surprising investors, it is not acceptable and naive just publishing results without a notification of when they will be published. So by getting the date out It allows us as investors to prepare for the results and might generate some coverage or trading activity. As we'll be on the radar for reporting companies. We'll get into investor calendars where we might pick up some interest from commentators, journalists or just interested investors.
The analyst's report will provide a more authoritative reference and summarise what is lost in the results publications and focus on the opportunity. I've not see the note obviously but I can imagine the picture it should paint based on my own understanding of where we are and where we are heading.
Like hedgehogs, provest's and fft100 ideas, if anyone has any ideas that might be useful to communicate to Marie-Claire please post them and I will happily share them in my future communications.
Great input Provest 2013. It would make a great case study if Primark are happy to be named. I will certainly mention to Marie-Claire.
We had coverage from Simplywall.st. Nice to final be noticed given recent gains and the annual gain of over 100%. As they state more to potentially come and as we all know the numbers are a little clouded by UKG. No one is pricing in the Safetell recovery either.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/tech/aim-nwt/newmark-security-shares/news/further-upside-for-newmark-security-plc-lonnwt-shares-could
Hi Marie-Claire,
Just a quick note to wish you all the best at the conference today. It’s fantastic that you are in NYC promoting what we do.
You should not hold back in telling the audience what you’ve created and achieved in the US (as well as the UK/Europe obviously) and what you have planned. The strategy success is only just becoming visible to investors who are closer to the business. Whilst our valuation has doubled on the back of this, we have a market cap of under $10m, yet revenues are at $25m and growing alongside profits that are set to escalate. Given our margins and opportunities there are many more multiples to come as our success will become much clearer for wider investors in the next 18 months. Thus, the timing is perfect to be updating investors at this conference in the US about our business and our plans.
It looks an amazing conference, full of potential investors who will be looking hard to find the best investment opportunities in the sector. Tell them - we are the one! They and I will thank you for it.
All the best
David
Welcome martyh,
Frustratingly there are no forecasts but here is a slide worth looking at. https://x.com/00dab/status/1734941407431839919?s=20
The decline in the old Safetell business has masked the growth in Grosvenor Technology. The business looks like it is treading water at the top level but as this graph shows it is a very different story.
In January it became very clear that we have a very successful strategy in GT playing out. The price has risen from 30p in Jan to where we stand today, but this is still very cheap. This year has seen a turn around in Safetell (as per the final results of 22/23) so we are expecting both business to be adding to the bottom line for 23/24. Note that we also had an impact from UKG on 2022/23 and 1H 24 revenues, this will work through this year leaving us with what I believe will be a £2m+ profit in 24/25. This is all my own research. Please do you own. All the usual caveats etc. Happy to help with any questions.
Imperial Capital
@ImperialCapital
Imperial Capital is a Toronto-based private equity fund focusing on buy-out opportunities in the Canadian and U.S mid-market (EV's between $50-$300mn).
I'm waiting for the 'X' feed to start on the Security Investors Conference, I will then chip in with a few take aways for one of the presenting businesses 'Newmark Security'.... Let's see if we can drum up some attendees for Marie-Claire's session and shine some light on this amazing opportunity.
It has to be a bit frustrating for anyone wanting to take a big bite or even a small one given there is (currently) a lack of stock supply. We've moved up on very little volume from 50p to 65p on the back of around 50,000 shares. Sellers who might have previously sold into such a rise are clearly sitting on their hands given we are so close to the strategy coming through in the numbers. I'm not selling a share until we are 100p + and then not many, I expect many other long term holder might be doing the same. The opportunity to go so much higher will be a constraint for sellers. A take over is clearly the way to go if you really want to get in and you are big enough or perhaps you have to approach directly the holders of significant holdings an agree a price (250p +), as otherwise you are constrained to a 1,000 shares a time with the price moving up trade by trade.
It's a wonderful place to be.
It has taken a while but we are pushing nicely higher knowing there will be further validation that there has been a real strategic change in the business as a whole.
GT continues to win contracts, grows reoccurring revenues and is highly profitable.
Safetell grows revenues further after years of decline with its new strategy, supporting profit growth for the group as a whole.
All very probable outcomes from the new year update, all leading to a price that could well be above multiples of where we are now.
A £6m valuation for a business that is turning over £20m and has net assets of £8m, that is cash generative and profitable is laughable. Again I stress just a £6m valuation...
It is great to be on this journey with you Hedgehog. When we hit £2, the champagne is on me at the next AGM!
Security Investor Conference
Hear from our CEO, Marie-Claire Dwek on 13 – 14 December in New York.
https://newmarksecurity.com/
I've flagged that the link to find out more is not working...
Benedikt pointed out that Wexboy had written about Newmark Security in 2014. I've dropped him a note on X flagging the opportunity of a multi-bagger. Here's hoping. https://x.com/00dab/status/1731972495475949736?s=20
I've written to Andrew Hore inviting him to take a look.
https://www.ii.co.uk/authors/andrew-hore
It only takes a few buys or sells to move the price by a good margin in either direction. The fact the bid price moved to 52 and traded at 54.5 is a good sign. A few articles about this share bring one to watch in 2024 would really help so I am reaching out to more AIM investment article writers.