Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
You mean, like, offer all the funding GDR needs at market rate, preventing GDR from the inevitable protracted discounted placing that's coming? £3m at 7p a share would give NCYT a 25% stake in the company (after dilution) and would build a partnership that could be beneficial to us in the future.
I'd be pro this approach alongside acquisitions.
Last year a quarter of the production was hedged but that contract was ending in Feb/March so if there has been a year extension it would be above $2000/oz this time around.
I'm not sure we'll see hedging this year with how strong the balance sheet is.
Rightfully Shanta Gold shareholders are currently up in arms about the attempt to sell off the business on the cheap to the founders, with the CEO Eric complicit. However I thought it interesting to look at the share price appreciation since that Dec 20th acquisition announcement and see how it compares to THX... surely SHG's share price has been suppressed because of it whilst THX's has been free to soar north with gold now at all time highs?
Dec 19th, day before acquisition was announced - SHG 12.65p, THX 14.25p
SHG has therefore seen ~15% gains since and THX has actually seen a small loss!
POG rising from $2050/oz to $2300/oz and even more importantly the highest average quarterly gold price ever and THX makes no gains.
from last week - largo sells roughly a third of its output to europe and a third to the us
'nearly every speaker at largo’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results conference call talked about the challenges the company faces because of low vanadium prices.
in response to a question about how close largo is to marginal costs given that v2o5 prices are $5-6 per lb, ernest cleave, largo’s chief financial officer said that largo’s 2024 v2o5 cash cost guidance of $4.50-5.50 per lb means “at current prices we’re seeing of $5.90 on the market, we will not be making cash at those levels. but it’s very hard for us to forecast where things go.”
primary production represents about 20% of global supply, according to paul vollant, largo’s chief commercial officer. primary producers are losing money at current prices, vollant said.
“the other type of production, either from steel **** or what we call secondary sources from, oil and gas manufacturing, it is indirect cost, which is very difficult to have clarity on. but yes, we’re seeing the oil industry struggling at the moment,” vollant commented.
declining vanadium prices had a significant impact on largo, resulting in a 7% drop in fourth-quarter revenues to $44.2-million compared to q4 2022 and a 13% dip in 2023 revenues to $198.7-million compared to 2022. revenues per pound sold in 2023 fell to $8.66 compared to $9.38 in 2022.
the european v2o5 price fell 22% in the fourth quarter and 31% year-over-year, with the most recent price hitting $5.90 per lb, cleave said.
largo’s cash operating costs excluding royalties were $5.30 per lb for 2023 compared to $4.57 in 2022. several production problems and an accident resulting in a death plagued the company last year.'
I know we've seen recently that int. prices don't correlate exactly with local prices but there is certainly positive correlation over the medium term. Besides the six month spike in late 2021 through 2022 we're now seeing 10 year highs:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palm-oil
Whilst we have seen a very handsome return over the one year timeframe here is £51m mcap really that much for a virtually debt free miner heading to 60k, organically funded within two years and with long term plans of 100k-200k ounces?
This is excellent to see.
Let’s not forget that Novacyt’s current valuation is roughly equivalent to just the two largest acquisitions - Primer design and Yourgene. Everything else (including £44m cash) comes for free, assuming a neutral outcome from the dispute.
Only a big loss in the dispute will make Novacyt look fairly valued come June
However strong our case may be the outcome is never 100% guaranteed so I can see why Novacyt’s management might accept a settlement that puts this whole saga to bed and with further cash heading our way.
Ideally the sooner this is behind us the better.
And to get to profitability they are needing one more lot of financing, something that is currently being worked.
The management have talked confidently and openly about this which is in stark contrast to the usual hush hush prior to a placing but still, in this climate, it's unlikely many will jump in until that financing is over the line.
It's reasonable to assume that the DHSC never expected Novacyt to stand their ground all the way to the High Court. What with being such a small company I suspect the dhsc thought Novacyt would run into financial trouble over the three year period from when the dispute was first announced leading to an eventual settlement on terms more favourable to the DHSC.
Only now when there's no doubt that Novacyt are going all the way might we see a settlement agreed that is weighted well in our favour.
The V price is less important to a VRFB manufacturer as it is to a vanadium producer - take IES for example, vanadium accounts for 17% of the total cost of a vrfb according to their most recent data, although I believe as other costs come down and they scale that percentage will rise slightly.
The next set of results are really very important now. TGR should be able to reach 1500Tpm without additional funding, the £m they are looking for isn’t specifically for ramp up, it’s more for working capital (cash put aside to pay CLN coupon, to be able to attract a reputable CFO etc) so these next results need to show either (i) they are now at 1500tpm or (ii) they have at least ramped up to break even level (~1100tpm).
If they show no improvement on H1 production whatsoever then it’s hard to imagine future funding will be anything other than painful.
It's a bit of a myth to say Fortune focused on everything but the core activities, this is only said because of how much he failed. At the time of the big $65m finance package in late 2020 BMN were producing 3650mtV a year and the vast majority of those proceeds were directed at Vametco and Vanchem for upgrades, repairs and expansion - targeting a production level of 6800mtV.
40 months on and production has yet to reach 4000mtV in any year.
We can't say who pushed for it, I guess it's ended up at court due to a mutual unwillingness to compromise. All we know is there were active discussions in Jan 2021 to extend the supply contract. The DHSC decided not to and so following this the dispute began. Novacyt sought legal action right from the start.
A year later in April 2022 the DHSC issued a large claim against Novacyt. Six weeks passed and Novacyt filed a defence of the claim and issued a counterclaim. And then about six months after that the trial data of 10th June 2024 was announced.
We know little more than the continually repeated claim that they (Novacyt) believe they have 'strong grounds to assert their contractual rights' meaning both defending against the claim issued against them as well as collecting the sums they believe they are owed by the DHSC + interest.
1.2p to buy, that's more than a 30% increase just to get to Lincoln's 1.1m purchase price a week or so ago.
You'd think the two large director buys last week were a hint to improving cashew performance soon to be announced, right? Whilst early enough not to get accused of insider trading... I doubt Lincoln would buy 1.6m worth only to then see it become a big fat loss following the upcoming results.