Member Info for HarChris

Perhaps not crazy, but we’re at the stage where it takes very little delivery against this backdrop for the current valuation to look like a total disconnect. And if multiple of the hoped catalysts land we’re talking a major rerate.

It's an inarguable fact that US investors are more risk loving than UK, shares across the US markets trade at higher price earning multiples than UK listed, far higher multiples to NAV etc etc

That doesn't mean being on the nasdaq is a silver bullet but you don't tend to see big potential nasdaq listed companies fail because they could never raise the required funding to implement ambitious plans in the way that you see all the time on AIM.

I'm confident Avacta in its exact form, with the same tech would have commanded considerably more funding on the nasdaq over the past few years, accelerating their plans and progressing far past the point it's at today on AIM as long as the data that followed was compelling.

Instead they've had to be extremely frugal and prudent with the limited resources they have, constantly pivoting to progress the programme with the best bang for its buck rather than multiple streams simultaneously.

Anyone fancy a Namibian holiday/fact-finding mission?!

Self funding operations requires solid cash generation (tick) and a lack of continual capex requirements, the latter is where they keep falling down as they keep coming back to the market to fund the mythical ore sorters.

Obviously now they are generating even more cash as tin sits comfortably above $50k and hedge lifted but boy do we need to see these ore sorters come online and stop draining the cash position once and for all.

The high tin price, the hedge being lifted and (surely?!) modest scale tin increase at Uis hugely derisks the investment whilst we sit and wait patiently for any of the three named catalysts to land. As long as the tin price holds steady it means no risk of any cash call now, no risk of the finance stalling progress etc

Despite all the frustrations we all air on here the set up here is excellent.

A reminder of what happens if we suddenly here that the decision re Goantagab goes Andrada's way...

240000tpa at 1.5% average grade means 3600tpa contained tin which at current tin price is $190m revenue per year. Split initially but the terms are locked in to buy the entire project for $15m.

I struggle to see the Namibian authorities side totally with the safari companies when this much is on the line economically.

It just all looks very murky to me.

What Tirupati needs more than anything is to demonstrate the ability to generate positive cash flows, do that and financing opens up and the valuation gap can close, but there's absolutely zero evidence that this is happening. It's just the same deflection tactics that we got from Shishir, focusing suddenly on nameplate capacity rather than actual numbers etc

Its awful when broken down:

Restarted Vatomina in Feb 2025 with targets of 1000tpm by July and 1500tm by December. I think the most they achieve in a month was around 500tm and by the middle of the year the July target was missed but December's maintained. That was obviously missed again and then Vatomina was paused for upgrades with a target of 1300+tpa post upgrades but no figures have been given throughout 2026.

The next update is therefore a positive operational update that shows what the upgrades have managed to achieve production-wise or its to announce another placing to keep the business operating - for me the latter is far more likely given the exiting of those two directors at such a time and the rampiness of the recent RNS' and presentation.

This does feel a bit out of the Poddar playbook rather than progress - Shishir constantly banged on about the relative undervaluation of TGR vs peers and yet never managed to close the theoretical valuation gap.

Three big catalysts this year now - progression to next stage of this Lithium Ridge JV, a major discovery from Brandberg West, and news re the third party ore at Goantagab. Any of the three could be a company maker.

Meanwhile we can safely say Andrada will be generating cash from Uis with tin price above $50k.

Avacta & Space X are easily confused!

What are you talking about? They gave a target in their March research note and April. It is new.

I'd have thought it was just a temporary pause as there's the data release in just a couple of weeks followed by a possible acceleration of deferred payments, both events which could change the forecast.

And from here the warrants are modest and accretive if exercised, with just 8m at 0.6p, just ~25m left at 1p, a small handful at 1.4p with the bulk, 85m, at 2.25p. Still sub 1B shares if all are exercised and considerable cash would be received in return.

It does seem strange that Rollins has stepped down after fighting so hard to secure such a position, nobody could genuinely argue it's job done on his part since getting the reins like he did - the share price has fallen from a pre suspension price of around 6p to 1.25p today. And barely any commentary whatsoever in the rns.

If a surprise ceasefire lands which turns stock market sentiment i’ll offload some back to you for 1.6p :)

I'm buying yours.

Today's news that Jangada still has $2m in the bank is a biggie. Yes there are many hurdles to overcome but with possibly 500k ounces of gold inferred by the end of this year across the two projects equalling ~$2.2B in revenue at spot price today I think the current $10m valuation ie 5X cash is simply mispriced.

No but it's unlikely to have been in 2017 when AV stepped down as an executive if they went on to many tens of millions of dollars in both 2018 and 2019 isn't it? Perhaps take it from someone who followed things closely back then rather than just vaguely imply possible links that you then admit to having no knowledge of?

Bushveld was an impressive AIM business that went south many years after Antony left to focus on Andrada, that's hard to rationally dispute.

I also spoke to AV back around that time on numerous occasions and therefore know for a fact he was disappointed in the management post his exit and i'm sure he's learnt a lot from his ex co founders strategic failure.

Bushveld's decline was anything but Viljoen's fault. It grew as a company in the years in which he was an executive director and hit an all time high 12 or so months after he left that role to become a part time NED. It's arguable that Bushveld's decline started whilst AV was still a NED in 2020 but certainly not whilst he was in a managerial active position.

The downfall of Bushveld lies squarely at the feet of Fortune Mojapelo, not AV.

He has very much the perfect background to lead a company like this, as bohercom just highlighted. He also cofounded Bushveld Minerals and oversaw them reach a market cap of over $500m and at the time of stepping down (May 2022 to focus on Andrada) Bushveld was still valued at $200m. Failure happened in the years following his exit.

That doesn't always equate to having the right set of skills for a CEO role like this but his background on paper is ideal.

I meant geologists more than miners:

Father: The late Professor Richard Viljoen, a highly respected South African geologist and a towering figure in the global mining industry. He was known for his expertise in platinum, gold, and other mineral deposits, as well as his work as a prospector, explorer, scientist, and educator. Anthony has publicly described him as a mentor, business partner, and major influence.

Uncle: The late Professor Morris Viljoen, also a prominent geologist (he passed away in 2021 from Covid-19 complications). The Viljoen brothers were well-regarded in South African and international geological circles.

Profiles of Anthony Viljoen often highlight this heritage with phrases like “Rocks are in his blood” and note that he hails from a “well-known family of geologists.”