That's rubbish I'm afraid Stnz. Unless you think bitcoin is finished (I'm assuming you don't) then discerning between miners is crucial. If bitcoin remains low, say sub $20k for an extended period of time then we are going to see winners as well as losers. A number of things will happen: a) machines will start being turned off, b) rigs and equipment may need to be sold in order to keep the lights on, c) some public miners may be acquired on the cheap, d) some may go under with administrators selling off their assets on the cheap. On top of this global hash rate will be lower than it is currently.
Can you see how those with the best balance sheet could set themselves up perfectly for the next bull run? Of course there would need to be another bull run soon enough that those winners too didn't become distressed themselves (after acquiring other miners or increasing their own hashrate, even if on the cheap). But yes there are certain different risk profiles for each of the miners; riot, mara, hut8, corz, argo etc and which ones you buy depends on how you think the next 12 months is going to play out.
I won't further this discussion anymore, this is my last message on the subject.
Many of us have called this wrong and are down a lot of money, it's frustrating to be accused of somehow profiting from this huge decline/manipulating others. Even now as I hold I don't pretend to be happy with what's going on and doubtful the current management have what it takes to turn fortunes around but I won't sell this low when the finances are in such rude health. Plenty of time for things to turn around before there's any risk of losing one's entire capital here.
What about this on the 13th April:
'I wouldn’t say I’m ramping the share Valju, but ok. It is probably quite obvious that we are stuck between 215-245 at present. That’s about 10% movements, so I’m just selling a little bit at 240p and buy back when it drops below 220p. Wish I’d done it along time ago. I certainly never ramp this share though on hot air as don’t think it’s fair to new holders.'
You accused me of trading for 10% with absolutely no evidence and yet you actually stated you sold in order to buy back 10% cheaper! Ironic or what?
That last message couldn't sum up it up anymore...
And no it's not a fact at all, I posted this two weeks before that 7th July comment:
'I bolstered my holding and bought a few shares back this morning.'
Previously I had shared that I had reduced my holding after Q1 results (at a considerable loss) due to the disappointing revenue figure. I really don't see what is deceptive about any of that? I have held shares for a long time now but have reduced / bought more depending on my confidence. Is that allowed? Does that make me an evil trader or someone just trying his best to protect his capital when times look less sunny?
Since the latest big drop I have simply held. I have very much lost the faith for now but will aim to hold on until at least the DHSC dispute is settled.
Imo where @byp falls down is the non discriminatory way he calls out anyone who is positive, optimistic or has frankly called this grossly wrong and labels them as rampers. I make a clear distinction between a holder who gets carried away (DRB possibly falling into that category) and the manipulative traders who hype and hyperbolise in order to rope in as many naive others as they can to help spike the share price and get their 10%.
I don't think my predictions were ever anywhere near as high as those in the £20+ club but I certainly thought this was a very low risk investment from about £4 onwards and have proved to be completely incorrect on that front.
At a glance: Hut8 has 7406 HODL and is currently mining ~320 coins a month with 2.78 E/H, it can easily cover its liabilities as it has net cash and yet the current mcap is 350m CAD = £226m.
So what's going on there? BTC merely needs to return to $30k for Hut8's HODL to equal its market cap.
I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the miners move first and attempt an out of the blue raise down at these prices - take Argo for example, a 15% raise at 30p a share would be £22.5m in the coffers, giving many more months runway in case the bear market goes on much longer than everyone (bar you Chaebol :D) hopes.
It may seem painful now but getting a placing away whilst still comfortably afloat is a hell of a lot better than a desperate raise to keep the lights on.
It depends on how long they feel they can go without selling. Most likely it's another couple of months and they are banking on a BTC recovery by then. If they get it wrong they may be forced to dump them 30/40% lower than Argo did.
Hut8? Nah with bitcoin looking so weak I'd stick with those that managed to increase liquidity selling above $22k - what if bitcoin drops sub $15k and stays there for the next few months? You think Hut8 are going to HODL all the way through the bear market?
Of course this is a setback but the fundamental investment case still stands - the demand for graphite is about to explode and tirupati are well placed to take advantage of this deficit. The management are extremely credible and should be capable of obtaining the relatively small amount of finance necessary to reach the position in which they are cash positive.
Besides some short term challenges TGR are just as well placed as they were last year when the share price was 140p to take advantage of the impending graphite shortage.
To be fair there's absolutely no sign of them carelessly blowing the £100m 'war chest' - the problem is quite the opposite at the moment. Whilst the saying revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is king' holds true in the long term what drives a share price in the short-medium term is revenue, revenue suggests business is being done and economic activity is going on.
The life has been sucked out of this share because revenues in Q1 were bad and in Q2 were absolutely appalling. £3.5m might be acceptable if this was 2021 and covid test sales had fallen off a cliff but this is well into 2022, there's been plenty of time to start leveraging the new business relationships and partnerships to prove sales ability if covid sales were to dwindle to zero... so far it's a big fat fail. To be back to 2019 levels is shocking.
With that all said and done there is still £100m in the kitty with a decent chance of that going to ~£150m in time. All is not lost but what is certainly lost for the foreseeable is any semblance of sentiment that remained. In terms of share price this is a write off until the market seems proof that management is competent enough not to f*** this enormous opportunity up.
It's not the only hope, there's more than enough money in the kitty to turn this around whether they win the dispute or simply settle and remain at around £100m but to return to pre covid revenue levels of ~£3m a month is totally abysmal.
So far DA's 2022 guidance has been downgraded in Q1 and then downgraded in Q2 as well, that's about as bad as it gets.
You should apologise to yourself for being unwilling to suck it up and sell at a loss - you could have bought back much cheaper and potentially made your money back but instead you were too stubborn and just b***** about it all day.