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80p, rejected, share price starts drifting back towards placing price, £1.20 offered, not beyond the realms of possibility to be accepted.
Certainly vulnerable to something starting with a 1, which is ridiculous and all the fault of Alastair.
Share price goes up 70%, not a word.
Share price retraces 5% - 'what a start to the week'
It's a 'pump and dump' only if we're back to 50p by the end of the week so let's wait and see - i'm extremely confident this holds above ~60p now.
Currently TGRs basket size for what they are selling in Madagascar is made up of 90% large and jumbo flake and this market has remained resolute with TGRs selling price likely to have actually creeped up year on year rather than fall.
It is true that small battery grade flake remains under pressure and may do for the considerable future. This is relevant as it's what drives sentiment across the whole graphite space as well as affecting the viability of TGRs Mozambique assets however in terms of simply achieving a profitable enterprise in Madagascar prices are still supportive.
https://www.asianmetal.com/Graphite/
See Flake Graphite +195 and +895 ^^^
In regards to Argo it's not enough to be slightly profitable, to overcome the situation they are in, to offset the high net debt and challenges of replacing fleet and growing (if possible) they need to be bringing in at least a few $m in cash per month which means ~$6m ish revs per month - to achieve that realistically we need to see BTC around the $140k mark.
Well with two days to go until the next difficulty adjustment it looks like there won't be much change, certainly not a big downgrading to somewhat offset the halving of rewards.
Yes fees will make up a small part of the loss but right now Argo is mining the equivalent of barely more than one BTC per day so perhaps $85k per day/ $2.5m a month revs, $3m tops - that's what $1-$1.5m cash burn per month?
Perhaps one more small placing to keep them ticking over until the hosting agreement ends and if no massive move in BTC, well ahead of hash rate, it's lights out.
This move is exactly what I've been going on about from months. Clever little traders thought that they'd be no interest here until the dispute was resolved and that sure they'd miss out on the, say, 40-60p first thing on the announcement of good news but get in without muck risk at 08:02... even cleverer folk like P100 predicted 10p before a positive jump if dhsc outcome was good and hence just sit back and relax and jump in when they want.
No in this case the gains are made by stomaching the small risk of being wiped out, the gains are made by our friend Amers and the like who have bought and bought well in advance of this move.
I don't really understand how the fees work. CLSK, I know you're on top of this, realistically how much of the 50% drop in rewards could be made up for by fees? 10% i.e essentially a fall in revenue of 40% BTC being equal?
Just look at the last two fundraises - £15.1m in December 2022 and then £5.1m + £16m ($20m) debt facility - and compare it with today's mcap. We know full well from the misses that another funding round is going to be needed and now they have debt to service and are well short of break even they aren't going to access further debt financing so it's got to come via equity.
Raising just £10m this time around will double the shares in issue, add an extra 50% for another £5m.
This isn't investable until (i) financing has been arranged and (ii) there's a clear improvement seen that gives confidence to profitability being achievable.
If the result goes ncyt’s way then any payout close to the counterclaim will have them sitting on more cash than they did even at the peak of covid, having already endured all the costly restructuring and having acquired a quality company in YG.
No we won’t revisit the share price peak of 2020 but boy will they be well setup to hit the ground running from July forward.
My guess is that he's been made inside and there's a placing coming.
'Due to the lack of revenue streams and the increased cash burn rate, the group's and the parent company's ability to continue as a going concern are dependent on raising additional funding in the second half of 2024. We have discussed with the directors the strategies that they are pursuing to secure further funding if and when required.'
The SP bounced off the bottom following Alastair's director purchase but I'm talking about since the two updates on 7th March. I wasn't expecting immediate changes but we will need start to seeing action match talk for a genuine recovery, of which being at 5.8p isn't.
As the year runs from March to March we're now due a full year trading update, let's hope that H2 at least beat H1 production-wise for starters. From there I expect to start seeing progress on the fronts I previously discussed - cash from the Mad gov. , debt facility, reputable new NEDs etc
I don't disagree now that this has become somewhat uninvestable until changes are seen / improvements are made but that clearly wasn't the case in the past. There was no issue in raising funds even as recently as January and the only reason more wasn't raised previously was because the Poddars didn't want to dilute themselves and believed they could achieve all that they planned to with the most minimal of resources.
It was slowly becoming evident through 2023 that Shishir's walk did not match his talk but it was only after the resignation of Isobel that investors truly rushed for the exit. Before that the board was starting to look a lot healthier but after isobel's resignation, followed by Murat, Shishir was forced into the laughable decision to have a board of three - himself, Puruvi and the apprentice.
So far over a month has passed and none of the proposed changes have been seen. The search for a CFO continues, the search for two new NEDs goes on, the $2m hasn't arrived and there's no news on the working capital facility. So far so bad.
True but that’s partly due to the chasm of difference between the two sectors. The gold environment is so strong that timescales can slip, actuals can fall slightly short but whatever happens cash isn’t going to become a constraint and strategy can go ahead as planned.
There is still a bit of mistrust of management here hence the poor valuation vs fundamentals but the margins and cash generation are simply too good to ignore.
In summary Shield has underperformed against expectations time and time again.
The most recent equity raise and debt facility was to get STX to breakeven. For this to happen they needed to hit very punchy targets but not only did the most recent results show they are on the completely wrong path (28.6k prescriptions vs 55.5k target) but the previous quarters were revised down too.
So for example prescriptions in 2023 came in at 77k and if you just looked at the 206% growth rate you might think excellent! But this was the year when the full sales force were in place and trained up. Do you know what the original guidance for 2023 was? 140K, it was then downgraded to 100k-130k range and that was missed by a mile.
In order for that cash break even to be achieved before a cash call is needed STX are going to need to up their average net price per Rx in 2024 and beat the previous target of 330k prescriptions... how likely do you think that is compared with 77k in 2023? And at what cost do you think the cash call will come at if it isn't achieved now that the current mcap has fallen to just £11m?