Member Info for HarChris

I don’t think that happens this cycle, MSTR should be okay. I do think Strategy might bring down the whole ecosystem in 2027 or more realistically in 2028 though.

Even if those results look great from an ORR perspective, don’t rule out the possibility that approval fails due to economics, seeing as they are expensive ADCs going after the tiny market of a subset of SGC.

Well, the update is due this month. This time last year it had already been released but that was unusually early, the year before was 21st June.

There's a chance it lands this week but what with AV being at the Indaba I'd guess it actually ends up being later next week.

I don't believe for a second that the Goantagab Mining decision will totally go against Andrada, it sets a ridiculous precedent if there's absolutely no compromise to be made and therefore hundreds of millions of revenue given up and enormous amounts of Namibia have to be protected to support the safari companies.

A deal where the conservancies receive some royalties from Andrada to help protect the black rhinos and threatened wildlife is the best case for all and highly likely to ultimately (no not you Safaris) be how it plays out.

I just hope it's sooner rather than later.

I appreciate the respect rather than being told what to do.

And whilst I reply to the odd post of Wyn's if I feel I have a meaningful response to offer on the most part I get a migraine from all the world salad and end up having to come off the lse bb for my own sanity!

Are you sure there’s a lock-in for retail at the SpaceX IPO? Do you have a link to show that?

I once used the filter function religiously and what I found was just one less person interacting (me) w ith those people and no change to the narrative otherwise. When I then checked on a private browser so I could see all posts I felt that said filtered individuals were being poorly challenged and therefore their views were gaining more traction than before, especially as it’s easy to just set up multiple accounts and talk back and forth with yourself if no one is responding.

So personally I won’t filter anymore unless we’re talking complete imbeciles who can’t string sentences together as they have no influence whatsoever.

There you are doing it again! You cannot wait two weeks post placing to see the reaction, you just can’t! Each and every time you come up with a theory for why share price isn’t immediately responding only to see for sure it’s BS the following week.

This is AIM, there’s a lot of traders involved and so they sell post placing announcement and come back when the dust has settled. In addition the broader markets are having a wobble this week and almost every AIM share I’m following (and there’s many) are down today.

Let’s revisit this late next week, gentleman’s bet that the share price is at least 10% above the placing price?

Of course there’s risk, it’s a small cap biotech with modest cash reverses but there’s a strong case to be had that the platform is increasingly derisked as data lands across multiple assets from the pipeline.

Consistency across multiple drugs is an auspicious sign that the tech works, that the platform is a winner and with the enormous markets that will open up we can safely say that confirmation by BP through sale will command significant premiums on today’s lowly £350m mcap.

It's another reason why we need to see the tin scale increase asap. Right now, let's call AISC $31k, the royalty makes up about $3k of that. The funded tin increase will not only likely bring down aisc by perhaps 3k due to economies of scale but also 2k from the decrease in royalty so suddenly that we are back to close to $25k/t AISC and looking pretty cosy in this tin environment.

Scroll down one more line on those interims and you’ll see the royalty which is also included for the full AISC.

The exact wording makes it far less ambiguous. Also if costs had ballooned to something like high 30s that would arguably be material and he shouldn't be sharing that info at a conference publicly, if they are more or less in the same ballpark ie a 10% rise to ~$30k then that's nothing unexpected and hence not material.

The $55k comment is a bit of a throwaway but it probably was $55k the last time he looked on Monday morning before the conference, hence just highlighting the extreme margin they are seeing at this very precise time.

The fact he can state that they are very profitable shows there's no grey area here, cash is quite clearly flooding into the business right now.

Haha that's probably the worst scare mongering i've seen on here in a while bigdaddypump. Well done!

'More likely people are nervous with a RI just before a data release. They may be using the logic that if the news was good a RI would be at a higher price or for more money in total after a good news update?'

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Nah, I think most would feel the same as me, that the release of data from the additional 21 patients between STS & TNBC is unlikely to blow the doors off in such a way to counter possibly as many as three Heights draw downs by July 21st.

The raise changes that, it doesn't need to blow the doors off to prevent a share price decline, now all it needs to be is consistent with SGC, clear signs that pre|CISION is working and effective in these indications and therefore increased confidence that a deal will follow in July/August/Sept/Oct (ie within current cash runway)

From 06:53:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sd2K7KncRLg

Really enjoyable, humorous and shares some valuable snippets. Talks of lithium ridge being one of the most important lithium discovering in Africa this decade. Also confirms what I was talking about earlier, how profitable Andrada now is… he mentions the challenges of building a tin mine before saying ‘ ‘we’ve done it, our mine is now very profitable. We hit the tin market in its prime. There’s one or two engineering projects that we’re working on to increase our volumes but look our all in sustaining costs are sitting around 30 odd thousand dollars a tonne and selling at 55 thousand dollars per tonne’

Once the selling dries up you'd think between the likes of Miton, Higginson himself and possibly a couple of others they'd start buying a modest amount to push it back up - would take such a modest amount of buying to double from here once the seller is out.

At least I attempt some analysis - your MO here is just to bit*h about AV like a scorned ex girlfriend.

A load of very serious investors with impressive pedigree have bought into Andrada since management decided to drop the AISC from their quarterly non audited updates. They aren't idiots and aren't going to be so easily hoodwinked by AV if for example it's because management are hiding problems behind the scenes.

We might not know the exact AISC until it's reported months down the line but there's no reason why it would balloon from the $27.5k level it was last at but even adding a whole 20% on still gives a $20k/t margin on today's price, enormous! The AISC margin is greater than the tin price fell to in October 2022 (tin fell to $18k) and still Andrada was 4.2p a share, let that sink in!

With a bit of scaling the aisc margin will be more like $25k/t, that's the actual average tin price from mid 2022 to early 2024!

This tin price is obscene and will now be flooding the balance sheet with cash, with even the most modest execution (ie ore sorters implemented) bringing free cash flow to probably close to half of today's mcap.

Yeah, someone appears to want out at whatever price.

Are you coming to the AGM at the end of the month?