Member Info for Dartron

Kendall, I broadly agree that the market is sceptical (but the price has been depressed somewhat by shorts).

Here are 3 angles, of why I am still positive, but owning AMS at 2.20 is fine by me even if no deal emerges.

1) We should not under estimate HB Fullers need to buy AMS. They are basically struggling, and need to move up the value chain. If you look at stocks like Croda (chemicals) the brokers are cautious there due to Chinese manufacturers eroding margins. I think HB Fuller is in the same position. Therefore they need to be moving in to areas where the margins cannot be eroded, etc. Although HB has a weak balance sheet, this could be much more of a sink or swim moment than the market attributes to the acquisition. Not to mention as I said before, the AMS management team is an asset in itself, as proven executors for M&A, and building a platform.

2) We already saw that HB Fuller were lurking before the PE guys walked. AMS board conduct themselves on the low key. In hindsight, if HB had offered 285p, that could have been enough for the PE to walk away, not because AMS is bad, but due to already being priced out. Now, consider that if HB are lurking, who else might be lurking. I think the odds of a deal are increased, due to there being an interested party. We actually saw something similar at Spire, when the 2 PE walked away, they both issued waivers saying that they may make another offer. This is down to price discovery. One offer may produce another offer.

3) The board have some skin in the game, but not a huge amount. I dont buy the argument that they will hold out for a really high offer. I think previous rejections may be a reluctance to being managed by PE. I think a trade buyer to AMS is more appealing to the management, who could then have new ladders to climb and the opportunity to continue growing the business. This may be an important consideration to them alongside price.

You must be really traumatised to continue to post here after selling out. You seem to spend a lot of time worrying about the situation here, given you are not an owner, yet I see no posts over at your new investment, ULTP. Does that sound rational to you? I also notice, that you are using a lot of gambling related terms in your posts. Maybe you should take a break from the 'Tape watching'.

It sounds a lot like confirmation bias, where every development here becomes a vindication for selling or a justification for incurred losses. Listen to yourself:

There not doing a buy back = They don't care

There doing a buy back = Its a conspiracy

Now you are even seeing ghosts in the SETS auction data!

It crossed at 308. = The L2 auction is being managed in some way to depress the price.

The buy back runs until Aug 2027, so its potentially 15 months, meaning quite low volume. The wording also does not imply it runs every day, and states that notification is after 7 trading days, so likely ad-hoc reporting. We don't know if it has actually began yet either.

Assuming roughly 65 weeks (about 15 months):

Cash deployed per week £25m ÷ 65 ≈ £385k per week. Shares per week 6.2m ÷ 65 ≈ 95,000 shares per week

95,000 ÷ 5 ≈ 19,000 shares per day, so the buyback, if spread evenly, is actually quite modest.

I think its a bit early to speculate on who's buying or selling after 5 days, when this should play out over a much longer time scale. I would also point out that some of the free float is owned by index funds and institutions, such as Gresham, UBS, Helikon, Allianz Global.

Instead of 'tape reading' you should be reading the Ultimate Products Kleeneze catalogue and working out how the decline in Ebitda is going to be reversed. Perhaps Harrison has some innovative ideas about Mops?

Thats the difference between Fish and Chips...

I see from reading the other well known chat board that sipps claims to have sold his PRN and bought ULT, although he still makes multiple posts on PRN almost daily, which is interesting. It seems PRN is now living rent free in sipps's head.

ULT revenue: flat. EBITDA consensus: down 20%. EPS consensus: down 30%.

PRN forum posts from former holders: apparently still growing strongly.

As for the "creeping squeeze-out" thesis, if the family eventually takes the company private then surely the key question is the price they pay, not the fact they make an offer. the entire post seems to boil down to:

1. Buyback reduces the float.

2. Ownership concentration increases.

3. A bid may eventually emerge.

If that's the outcome, investors who bought at 310p are hardly the victims. The post presents a series of assumptions as established facts. It is perfectly possible that the family eventually crosses 90%, but that does not automatically mean minority shareholders are somehow destined to be forced out at an unfair price. I kept quiet this week while building a much larger position, mainly based on the squeeze characteristics of the buyback and the additional optionality that float tightening creates. Ironically, the scenario he describes as a disaster for shareholders could just as easily turn out to be the investment case.

The irony is that AMS has spent years proving it can acquire and integrate niche businesses. HB Fuller may be looking at them and thinking:

"We don't want to replace these people. We want them running our healthcare platform." That's a very different acquisition rationale from a cost-cutting deal. HB fuller need to move up the value chain in to speciality adhesives. The deal makes a lot of sense to me, but they wont get it for 280p IMO.

Becasue the buyback is increasing debt, the EV is now 80 + 466 = 546. Stated Ebitda is 69 (I took this from the leverage ration of 1.15).

Therefore current Ev/Ebitda = 7.9.

At 160p the EV would be 460, Ev/Ebitda would be 6.66, which I do not think is greedy for something that is not demonstrating growth, with high debt.

Just because some of us are not invested now, doesn't mean we haven't followed the stock and previously been invested.

I was quite surprised when I saw negative EPS this morning, it took me several attempts to make sure I was reading it right. I sold recently as posted, I was almost starting to have a tiny bit of regret with the share price up in the 230's, but todays update makes me more sure I dont want to own this.

Honestly, id want to pay around 160p for this, and hold for a breakup. OF the contenders for that type of trade, many other companies have assets much easier to value/tangible.

The problem is more subtle.

Management tells you:

Go is going well.

Americas has turned.

Demand is strong.

AI fraud is a tailwind.

Growth will accelerate.

Then you look at the numbers:

Revenue +3%.

Operating profit +0.7%.

Margin flat.

Debt up.

£73m impairment.

You end up scratching your head and asking:

"If everything is going so well, why aren't the numbers showing it?"

I think it should attack the recent low of 180p, so 160 isnt that much of a stretch.

6 shorts now, I think they will take it there.

Been invested for around 2 years and I have made.....wait for it..... £23.21

Purchase date 20/08/2024 3,250 shares @ 109.51p. Cost = £3,559.08

Dividends received - 7 dividends of 2.2p before the takeover completion:

7 × 2.2p = 15.4p per share, 3,250 × 15.4p = £500.50

Takeover proceeds - Cash offer = 92.574p Retained dividend = 2.25p Total value received = 94.824p per share

Therefore: 3,250 × 94.824p = £3,081.78

Total return

Takeover proceeds £3,081.78

Dividends received £500.50

Total cash returned £3,582.28

Original cost £3,559.08

Profit £23.21

Result

Total profit: £23.21

Total return: +0.65%

So after nearly two years of ownership, I've essentially broken even, with the dividends doing almost all of the heavy lifting.

Net outcome: +2.96p per share.

Was a poor investment in hindsight, but not as poor as NESF. Whether ill ever see this cycle repeat (funds based on cheap debt as rates rise), ill know better next time. You could have made money on this vehicle, with better averaging or having been invested earlier. I think NESF claim to have distributed close to the mcap back to shareholders over the very long term, I expect there is a similar claim here. But if you bought in post 2023, you effectively became the bag holder. Silver lining, im free to leave, albeit with bruises from inflation and opportunity cost, perhaps wiser for the experience.

Gingy, we have missed you.

I had a nice win here. 96p (trading update) to 104p (Friday), just started buying them back today.

The argument against that is...

AMS had a load of cash.. then bought Peters Surgical (and took on some debt). This is when the share price stagnated, as the market waited for the acquisition to be digested, and the debt to lower - which both have. Ebitda increased by 25% last year, and there is no reason why it wont continue to do so.

I think the board have been partly responsible for rejecting some low ball bids. Even at 280p, the company is fundamentally undervalued (11x Ebitda, with the acq just bedding in..). I also expect they have a preference for the type of acquirer, to be fair to the board they have done a good job growing this, they dont need PE to load them with debt.

I understand the point of wanting a fast exit, but actually shareholders might do better holding this one. I think it explains why the board are not desperate to sell, to what may be the current highest bidder, but still a low ball offer. I think if there is not a sale concluded this time, they will have to address the disconnect in the share price. Ideally a buyback might help rerate. Look at the long term chart, its easy to see it make a new high here in time.

You complained about inaction and specifically called out the lack of a buyback on the 26th. Today the company launches a £25m buyback and you've turned it into a major conspiracy. From your detailed analyses of the market microstructure, you'll know that introducing a potential £25m buyer into a thin market addresses many of the liquidity concerns you've repeatedly raised. Whether they spend the full amount or not, the company has now signalled a willingness to buy shares at these levels. I personally think the stock is being shorted, and this move nips that right in the bud. I doubt the price will stay at 310p if there are 2 competing buyers. Note, how quick the buy back is, with a specific end date 27 August, that's potentially 6.2M shares in 13 weeks.

Secondly, even if the company were ultimately taken private, a formal offer would still need to be made to minority shareholders. That is very different from the suggestion that shareholders somehow wake up one morning and find themselves forced out for nothing. You should note that the controlling party also bought in the IPO at £4.75. Longer term, I actually agree with one of your points. If Princes is serious about becoming an acquisitive platform, the free float probably needs to increase rather than decrease. Equity issued as part of future acquisitions or a placement to institutions would help address that.

I wasnt expecting the BB RNS, but it does show that board are not passive. I think investors will make money from this level, and probably quite quickly.

Be careful what you wish for sipps.

It’s only been listed for around 6 months, so I think it’s a bit early to jump straight to “delisting”. I agree the free float is an issue though — if this is intended to become an acquisitions platform, broader ownership and improved liquidity would clearly help over time. The CEO transition reads more like installing their own man after the acquisition. This is almost expected to install one of their own long-term operators after integration. I’m also not overly concerned about the AGM. There’s currently nothing especially contentious to vote on, and the ownership structure already makes the control dynamics obvious.

What interests me down here is that the shares already screen cheaply relative to reported EBITDA and cash generation, and they have funds for an acquisition. That could well change the dynamics in many ways. Happy to keep nibbling shares if someone wants to sell them to me, as you said there are not that many available. 😉

Goes Ex dividend next week aswell.

Kendall12, dont fancy AMS?

So the sequence is roughly:

TA Associates approach emerges / discussions ongoing

Market hears rumoured ~250p interest via Sky

Process ultimately collapses

Then on 30 April, H.B. Fuller Company submits an unsolicited proposal

Fuller is industrial/medical adhesives adjacent, so they may see synergies in sealants, tissue adhesives, manufacturing, distribution etc. This is not some random PE tourism.

The prior bidder walking may genuinely have been price discipline or financing, rather than due diligence disaster.

It also implies AMS management were likely already in discussions / under approach conditions while the first bid drama was unfolding.

The board of AMS notes the recent press speculation and confirms that, on 30 April 2026, it received an unsolicited proposal from H.B. Fuller Company ("H.B. Fuller") regarding a possible cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of AMS.

Krusty, thanks for the input. These questions help me build up my own thesis here (and yes, we are both in NESF so I understand your concern).

The board - including Adam Smith from Glenstone said - "the possible offer by AEWU at a 3% discount to NAV per Share was capable of recommendation and remain of that view".

Perhaps they felt that the merger gave resolution to a number of issues, firstly Glenstone's desire for an exit (they already had the 66p offer), and the criticism that AIRE is small and subscale. At 3% below NAV, they probably had a fiduciary duty to recommend that.

Regarding the dividend, what I like here is that the assets are way more tangible than NESF. Why wouldn't they be able to sell a car forecourt, or a beauty college etc. For as long as I have been invested the occupancy has been 100%, the dividend has always been covered. After the recent refinancing, they reduced the dividend in response to the new interest rate, so the current dividend is still covered. The finance is floating to some extent, so if rates rise its possible that the dividend is under pressure, but rents will catch up.

I think that is the crux of all income investments - your own view on where rates are going. Personally I do not expect a rise, and think income plays like AIRE at nearly 9% is a smart play.

"The Board are also pleased to report that the margin on the New HSBC Bank Facilities of 170 basis points (1.7% per annum) over SONIA"

"remaining fully let, with 100% rent collection and 92.1% of leases being subject to index-linked rent reviews"

Gingy, time to close that CFD. 79p is not happening today. More likely 109p.

Update was good, slightly more positive sounding than Forterra.

Will it rain tomorrow, does anyone know?

I think the cash came from the IPO, and the stated intention is for further acquisitions. This is a growth stock, on a European roll up of food manufacturers.

Changing the CEO is totally rational, and it sounds like they have a guy lined up. Cant believe it dropped down here, so happy to take a few.

Feel its a long duration story, over a few years this one. Lots of nuances if you dig deep researching the stock. One to cost average in to over the coming years, if they can pull the strategy off.