Member Info for Dartron

My guess is around £12.40. That's roughly 8x last years adj ebitda. I knocked 10m of the EV (back to the mcap) in leu of the buy backs that wont occur, so meaning the 10m debt can be considered as gone. I think if the offer can get over 12 they will recommend it. Board will be more concerned about jobs than shares. So many free options his real average cant be in the 14's.

Have to be careful on many of these stocks, people say "the market thinks this or that"

Honestly, a lot of people dont factor in short selling, which in many cases is not expressing a view on the company as much as the sector and technicals of uk macro. I can see why NCC is an easy short currently just on those facts (and NCC have stated a time line for Escode). I would be concerned if after the Escode sale goes through and the short interest is not reducing. Very similar to Gama really, and look how that played out.

Amazon recently experienced at least two outages because of issues with the company’s internal AI tools, including a 13-hour interruption to a customer-facing system in December after some engineers allowed its AI tool “to make certain changes”.

https://www.ft.com/content/00c282de-ed14-4acd-a948-bc8d6bdb339d

From main article

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ng-interactive/2026/mar/11/amazon-artificial-intelligence

'My son worked for this company for 6 years'

'it was run by fools' - is that how he got the job ?

'staff would leave after a few years' - not your son though he stuck around, why was that ?

'a few good men carried the rest of the dead weight' - ill just leave this here.....the firm has grown from around 500 employees in 2014 to over 2,200 by 2025, operating in the UK, Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands.

are you muddling it up with Car phone warehouse ?

Every stock got faded today. They shouldn't have gone up like after the TACO. Euphoria for no reason.

Did some analyses on this recently, trading below NTAV of about 83m. Also if you extrapolate out the value of the indian JV from the option they had to sell it, that values it at alone at 40m. mcap 76m last time io looked. May stay cheap for the foreseeable, but seems decent to nibble away.

EV ≈ £88m. NTAV ≈ £83m (From interim results balance sheet analysis, which from the recent TU still sounds about the same, regards bridge liability etc)

The market is valuing the operating business at roughly its tangible asset base

EV ≈ £88m

At £12m PBT: EV / PBT ≈ 7.3x

At £15m PBT: EV / PBT ≈ 5.9x

Guidance: £12–15m PBT

Against: EV £88m

That £12–15m is a depressed year

1. Weak current earnings ✔

2. Strong forward workload ✔

3. Delayed (not cancelled) projects ✔

💡 “Earnings trough with visibility to recovery” Plus new management.

Has all the ingredients of a recovery play, but we are still very early.

Chelmo, the approach came at Gama, but after the 20% drop. Price still not above pre-results with M&A. Hard market.

GBG is the last one on my watch list that shorts have not smashed, hence I dumped my leverage position mid conflict. Still hold SIPP, less worried.

I would say, just be careful. Iv seen this movie 4 or 5 times so far this year. Bytes, Gama sold off, then ok results, wallop down 20%. So personally, im not buying until the trading update, which is next Wednesday (or week after) they say date in the re-financing RNS.

On that note, quite large the refinancing, what are they planning? why cant they just pay down debt. Expect they will buy something.

This is in addition to the residual EUR 1.6 million of capital allocated for share buybacks in October 2025 that has not been used to date.

Are they buying as many shares as they could be? (I dont know because this is dual listed), but if the price is falling it implies that the buy backs are not aggressive enough. Is it just another tactic to draw things out.

While the chart had clearly turned up and looked a good entry, we didn't see those technical you mentioned YHAL. Im glad I bought when I did and backed my conviction, though I must say, was not expecting a TO.

In your face GLG, took it down to below £7.00, now you got to cover. ha ha.

My original post was aimed at the people who say property worth X therefore Spire worth Y. I was pointing out that X has decreased by conventional commercial property valuation metrics. The valuation of the estate is based on its earnings potential, ultimately its yield. Because they are hospitals, they cant be used for much else, and if the estate was reduced it would weaken the business case, as there would be geographic holes, and fixed costs would have less to be shared between. That issue is Spire's operational gearing. The bull points you mention are being dragged down by the NHS refusing to pay up. Spire being stuck, unable to negotiate. Spire needs NHS, NHS needs Spire. Look at these points from the December TU:

Self-pay trends have continued to improve and PMI trends are broadly unchanged since H1. However, this has not been sufficient to offset the well-publicised recent slowdown in NHS commissioning activity to the Independent Sector, due to Integrated Care Board budgetary restrictions. We continue to work with local commissioners to navigate what we believe to be a near-term challenge and deliver quality care outcomes and continuity of care for patients.

Read this one a few times, and back to your point, if it were a block of flats or a supermarket, the income would be index linked.

We anticipate NHS volumes to be a material uncertainty across the sector, particularly in Q1. We note that the NHS has recently published a consultation on 2026/27 NHS Payment Scheme prices. The proposed annual tariff uplift falls significantly short of the prevailing rate of inflation. We will contribute actively to this consultation to support the partnership agreement between the NHS and Independent Sector.

That's the real issue here, spire needs NHS. NHS cant pay, wont pay. Spire has low quality earnings. This is true no matter how PE run the rule over it. Even an Op co, Prop co wont really work, as Op co wont be able to keep up with rising Prop co rents.

The improvements you talk about are a step in the right direction, but if GDP growth is low, budgets get squeezed for private pay, where are the earnings going to come from.

Also its 30% NHS: from FY results.

“70% of Hospital revenue comes from private payors and private patient momentum has continued to improve…”

“30% of Hospital revenue comes from NHS commissioning.”

I do hold this stock, Im not saying an offer wont land. I am just putting across the argument that many are missing here, and why its difficult to find a buyer. I would say Spire is still an event driven play. My plan is to wait for the event. It has just taken me 3 years to exit a POS oil and gas co, but black swan events do bring exits. Spire is basically critical uk infrastructure. It will have its day, but in the mean time the fantasy M&A talk on here is pie in the sky.

"Assets do well in an inflationary environment"

That’s true for land and some real assets, but income-generating assets like commercial property are valued off their cash flows. In a higher inflation and rate environment, required yields rise, which puts downward pressure on valuations unless income growth keeps pace — which is questionable in Spire’s case given NHS pricing constraints. We can already see this in the REIT sector. Since the invasion, many are trading 10–15% lower despite having index-linked rents. That’s because required yields have risen alongside higher bond yields, so valuations have adjusted downward even though income is growing. The property book at Spire has derated due to the Macro in my opinion, and so have the forward earnings. In the same way that many other stocks are now cheaper too. Regrettably.

If inflation rises, interest rates rise, discount rates rise, property valuations fall. Financing becomes more difficult / expensive, growth outlooks lower, private healthcare demand could weaken, or flatline. It changes the whole proposition, which was never a property deal, but more like an asset backed going concern with scope for improvement. Maybe Spire was worth £3 back in September, but to these people banding around prices, with no acknowledgement of market conditions changing, its not helpful. AGM is in May, I expect they update before the AGM, but outcome is uncertain.

Yes you are right, it was spun out of Altron (SA) Dec 2020 Demerger + IPO on LSE (and secondary JSE listing).

Its worth bearing in mind that Bytes is also listed in SA, so that must appeal to these funds. According to my research, the SA's are just more comfortable with this type of business model than the UK is. Also worth noting that Coronation holds a large holding in Quilter plc, which is a near identical set up (ex SA demerger). Possibly - This allows them to trade Quilter shares in Rand (ZAR) without exhausting their individual foreign asset allowances under local exchange control regulations.

Perhaps they can encourage Bytes to de-list from the UK, which might help share price appreciation back in SA. Complete guess on my part.

Atlas reply. Reminds me of aucti0on tec all over again. FWIW, I paid 70p for my shares, so in reply to Atlas, lets agree to disagree.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/None/statement-re-possible-offer-for-brck-group/17528901

Https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2026/03/31/us-investor-behind-bovis-circles-listed-brick-giant/

Possibly, though the whole sector has bounced. In the end, the stock offered a nice entry spending the day wicking below £7 yesterday. I should have waited.

Absolutely agree and that is good advice.

For most of march, £8.50 was defended several times, and at one point GLG had gone below 0.5%, so I did think the bottom was mostly in. If I used a reversal strategy, I would need to see a 2nd higher high, and that could be up at £9.50 odd. I probably wouldn't want a position with a £9.50 entry, as there wouldn't be enough upside / margin of safety. There is also the chance of a pop in share price, if sellers are exhausted and GLG are still short. I am not sure about that however, maybe there is a seller, as there are some large volume spikes - but that can just be the short sellers recycling stock. I did see a few large 700k prints today above ask, which show as normal transactions. With such a low float stock, I dont think you will get a good price if you wait for confirmation, but you do get better odds. There are a few bullish technicals on the hourly, like a rising RSI, and MACD turned green.

As I say, it is feasible that this is the last flush down, that you mentioned. It could even turn out to be a bear trap, and price could reclaim £8.50 in a matter of days. Under your conditions there would be no reason to enter, price would still be at the bottom of the trend, however I would be 50p in profit.

Not saying im right, just sharing some of the rational behind my decision.

One question for you - is it currently working in general, waiting for confirmation, with the market so choppy, and so much profit taking? I see very little momentum to the upside, other than O&G stocks, which I am selling out of, rather than buying.

Shorts increasing too, I have noticed it on several stocks that are under M&A, shorts still seem to be happy to increase. Maybe they are getting tips from Donald? I guess Fitz are locked out for another 5 months though. No rush..

Its a tough one for sure. £8.50 looked ok (5.4x Ev/Ebitda) , now £7.50 looks ok (4.7x). No reason why it wont go to £6.50 (low 4's). All the time GLG are showing as short, its probably going lower. Full disclaimer I bought at 8.50 and 7.50. I am not a momentum chaser, look at what happened over at Goodwin, or the gold price. Momentum is tough. I prefer under valued stocks, with turn around stories and re rating potential, thats more my cup of tea. The down side is so much more limited in these situations. Only have a modest holding, and will probably add if we do see any momentum to the upside, but that could be in 6 to 9 months time. From a valuation perspective we must be close to the floor, but possibly not there yet. Not only has Gama derated, but the sector has and on top of that the UK has. Had a good read in to what they do, what the drivers are etc, dont buy the bear case of telephony is dead.Have to wait and see now.

The issue is that the company have said there is nothing to get excited about the next 12-24 months or so, so little to pull in buyers currently. Its probably still too expensive to attract a bid, and needs to prove its new strategy more. However, if those go to plan along with a good reduction in share count :

2027, 150m Ebitda (modest bull case) * 6x multiple = 900m, divide by reduced share count of 80M = £11.25p = about 40% upside from my £8 av buy in.

More shorts declared for yesterday, now up to 9.3%. they appear to think the RR is decent going short at 115p.

Yet Harwood has bought a further 1m shares

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCC/form-83-ncc-group-plc-f7gn90r1yh867xp.html

Totting up the recent 8.3's (only the recent ones, so some holders will have been missed) we have (51%):

Griffiths 16.96%

Harwood 12.5%

State street 1%

L&G 2.06%

Perpetual 2.94%

Slater 1.52%

Lombard 2.68%

First TRust 2.61%

NCC Employee trust 2.6%

Dimensional 1.43%

Vangaurd around 5%

Not to mention these guys showing as holders on various web sites: Artemis, Aberforth, NFU mutual, The Welcome Trust.

Have to wonder if it would be possible to buy back 9.3%, if there was an offer etc. Do you think there might be more holders than shares? A few of the disclosures above are using CFD's, but not many, cant be more than about 8%. Yes the Cyber business is valued at around 50m, Kelso thought it was cheap when it was 140m.

Based on Kelso's internal calculations and the figures referenced above, the resulting Cyber Security business implies an enterprise value of £140.0 million, equating to an EV/Sales multiple of 0.6x on the revenue contribution of £238.9 million for the period ended 30 September 2025. This represents a significant discount to its peers.

Kelso originally invested into NCC in October 2023, with further investments made during 2024. NCC remains one of Kelso's largest holdings, with 2.0 million shares held at an average in price of 133.7p. In April 2024, Kelso highlighted the potential value uplift that could be achieved if NCC considered separating it's two operating businesses (Cyber Security and Escode).

NCC announced yesterday afternoon that it agreed the sale of its Escode business to TDR Capital, subject to the relevant conditions and regulatory approvals being satisfied. The transaction values Escode at a total enterprise value of £275.0 million, compared to the market capitalisation of NCC, on the day prior to the disposal announcement, at approximately £415.0 million.

that day share price was 140p.