Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Https://kestrelpartners.com/news/
Should we get excited that Kestrel are buying stock? They are a private fund who buy shares in small caps, then put a member on the board. They are buying other companies too, for example increased in RCN today. Exploring the website indicates some others they hold too. If anything, they maybe able to broker a deal for another buyer. You could look upon Kestrel large holding as a negative, now it means that an approach from someone else is very unlikely. I follow a similar vehicle called Dbay who have near 29% in a couple of companies. They surprised me when they took Finsbury food private and kept it (due to the FCF). I think a company making cakes has limited growth compared to TIG, so I doubt this would be a sensible approach. Perhaps they could flip it by relisting it on the Nasdaq, I dont know. But if you follow stocks, Kestrel buying and having a board member is fairly normal and im not reading much in to it, other than a huge endorsement from some very skilled professional investors. Kestrel fund is not open to the public, so you could go and buy all of their holdings to replicate the performance..Also shows where the value zone is, if they are happy to buy under 1.20. I caught the bounce of 115 this week with a few extra but sold them today at 122. TIG is a good holding but im not expecting fireworks any time soon, the yield is low here and the SP growth is slow to come. A lot of the time, I forget I hold this and focus on other stocks.
Regardless of Kestrel I think the BB shares will get cancelled, though strange that they have not done so already. The alternative is that they work on increasing the share price and use the shares for an acquisition so long as they are valued at higher than they paid for them. Currently bought back 8% of the company.
Just checking on the buy back..
Started 4th April, plan to purchase up to 20% of stock.
Currently has purchased and cancelled 5.39% (30,295,958 shares).
The Share Buyback will end no later than on the conclusion of the annual general meeting of the Company in 2024 - which is in May. So likely they will make it to 10% in that time. They can always continue it next year I suppose.
Your argument falls down as i3 has more than halved in just 18 months. I think BP transitioning in to renewables will be a long term better bet. Investing in I3 has taught me to be wary of 10% yields - there is always a catch.
The tip is on the basis that there is a valuation disconnect. What poor advice from investors chronical, your supposed to buy winners. They are basically advocating bottom picking. There is no reason for the valuation to improve here. They have it on a forward PE of 7 which sounds high (expensive) as well. If I was advising I would say go for BP, you'll sleep better.
Correction, this is after the placing:
As part of the Placing, First Equity Limited ("First Equity"), an existing Shareholder, has agreed to subscribe for 11,000,000 Placing Shares pursuant to the Placing at the Placing Price. Following Admission, First Equity will have an interest in 29,000,000 Ordinary Shares,
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CMH/holding-s-in-company/16284009
Armstrong Investments Limited - up to 16.726727%
Note this is before the placing shares are admitted.
Great news.
I looked at the broker note, it was a like a compilation of 3 similar companies shall we say. There is only a page on each. My understanding is that these type of notes are really a mouth piece for the CFO of the company, so no analyses from broker. We already know the aspiration, now we have to wait and see if it can be achieved. It would be nice to hear some more detail on the contracts mentioned recently, perhaps an interview or RNS reach might cheer us all up.
The trouble is this type of investment needs an exit, and there isnt one. No II interest to soak up shares, so the price drops after each event. Many events have been disappointing, and to be honest you are spoilt for choice on AIM with speculative companies like this. The execution which is 'ok' at best is not a compelling factor, the hit and miss geology is becoming less attractive, and all in an environment where real quality is for sale on the same market at knock down prices and valuations. Any spike is going to be sold heavy here.
Wow:
Over the course of the year, as the Group foresaw a reduction in productive workload, it made the decision to reduce the operational working week and to enable the retention of key skilled operatives, ran its own in-house furlough scheme, paying up to 70% of normal basic pay for non-worked time for those operatives that were affected. However, as the year ran on it became apparent that a permanent reduction in direct labour numbers was required. In September 2023, the Group entered into a redundancy process and made 14 employees redundant prior to the year end, with ten of those leaving under voluntary acceptance. The cost of this exercise to the business was over £0.1m and is classified as exceptional due to it being an infrequent occurrence.
Trevor Brown holds 35,421,915 Ordinary Shares representing 25.70 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital. Trevor Brown has agreed to subscribe for 3,550,000 Subscription Shares pursuant to the Subscription at the Placing Price. Following Admission, Trevor Brown will have an interest in 45,571,915 Ordinary Shares representing 25.41 per cent. of the Enlarged Share Capital.
So this has cost him £71k to retain the (almost) same stake in the company. I think unless you increase your stake in a placing you have not averaged down. I plan to try to calculate the cost of his holding. I would hazard a guess that it is at least 5p/share. He has also seen the value of his 25% crash today just like the rest of us. He must be about 50% under water at least. I know how it feels Trev! I was also here at 5p.
Yeah, I did the maths. For the mcap to remain the same, the placing should have been 2.3p.
However, that isnt usually how placings work. In the good times, this would have been a much smaller discount. The argument being that the EV has increased due to the cash achieved from the raise.
I still think Trevor will exit this with a profit or a MBO. So for me, having been here over 2 years the only option is to follow him. I have managed to increase my stake (he remained the same). I bought a few times today, and one of my buys was the 1.994. Im pretty fed up with this saga though I have to say. I think the price was low, and it is concerning that 830k might not be enough cash again - although the previous placing was for only £330k and it lasted nearly a year . A higher price could of achieved a little more cash. I am surprised that TB did not increase his stake, in that case he has not really averaged down. Should we be wary or excited about this? I always thought if we had a placing here it would be for TB to reduce his average and go to 29%, but in actual fact the cost of his 25% has now increased again by £71k.
I will be interested to see who bought the shares, or rather who is likely to keep them. Recall Miton sold around 2.5p, was this insightful trading from Gervaise? Does he get them back at a 20% discount.
My last point is that I would like to see the board really commit to RDC. To do this they should sell Petrel, and use the cash to erase all debts and deficits, and invest in capacity etc. One day when this is taken out, its going to get broken up anyway. It might even achieve a better multiple as a single focus company in the mean time.
It cut my message off.
Less than 3% (dont write that with a less than symbol).
Dowgate wealth are also buyers here. I really enjoyed this video where he talks about EKF (and many other interesting stocks). His comments re a buy out here too. I linked to the EKF chapter but worth a listen to it all. He also mentioned PMI which is yielding around 9% per anum, so you are paid to wait for a recovery there, where as we have had the booty here.
https://youtu.be/DXfrakc20cs?t=2641
Might add to EKF in SIPP if it falls below 30. Im sure it will re rate soon, but on news. I think EKF is probably fair price currently.
SB, the securities lending is for them. Their voting rights are 518374 extra due to them borrowing stock.
Usually in this situation they are going to sell (some of their 12%) and hedge the drop by a CFD or similar.
It is probably lion trust selling I would say. They are 'doing a Dartron' (LOL) and taking needed gains to deploy elsewhere.
Just like Dartron they still have exposure here. Mine is in my SIPP. I sold my income holding to buy PMI as you probably know from Twitter, that goes ex dividend next week.
I think the rise could be another buyer, who has not had to report (
I am not sure I can see a buy out at these levels, if Dbay themselves paid £1.50 per share for their stake, and their previous offer of £1.50 for a take over was declined. Any take over would need the consent of both Dbay and the founders agreeing. I cant see either agreeing to lower, and I cant see DBay paying that sort of valuation now. I bought in today and am happy to hold in my pension until this gets concluded, but im not sure it will be soon. Any one have any thoughts on this?