The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Https://news.sky.com/story/london-listed-safestyle-opens-door-to-company-sale-12981794
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SFE/response-to-media-speculation-los29tbnj7cz12p.html
Hope they got that short covered.
I think those SWS articles are not very useful IMO. They are kind of AI generated, just looking at some key numbers. If you are going to invest in small caps and AIM stocks, you need to go deeper than a few headline numbers. Yes it has got a lot of debt, but sounds like it has headroom. Below is info from the RNS regarding the debt.
The debt facilities consist of a £70.0m senior finance facility and an undrawn revolving credit and overdraft facility of £25.0m, both maturing in November 2025 but with an option to extend for a further 12 months. Including cash balances of £36.6m, the Group had access to £61.6m of combined liquidity at 1 July 2023.
Nice spot. I do monitor Castings, but not seen the update today because they are on the main market. In terms of geography:
The group operates two iron foundries – Castings P.L.C. (Brownhills, West Midlands) and Wm Lee Limited (Dronfield, Derbyshire) – together with the CNC Speedwell Limited machining operation which is also based in Brownhills.
You never know..
Sounded ok to me. The TU did not provide the previous EBITDA margin, which proactive are reporting as 20.5%. Bit silly to say 'lower' but not quantify by how much in the TU.
Adjusted EBITDA margin was just over 17%, compared to 20.5% in the previous full year, which was attributed to reduced average utilisation, partly reflecting quieter summer months.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1029202/alpha-fmc-says-more-positive-market-sentiment-is-returning-1029202.html
I was scanning down my stocks of an evening. Not followed the news that much, but in between these posts have read up on it. To be honest, I have tried to block most of it over the weekend (on Twitter), as I cant stand horrific images of human suffering, who ever they are. I am really troubled by any kind of suffering, be it war, torture, starvation etc.
As an outsider I have a feeling where your ideals lie on this matter, and I wont discuss it further, other than I feel all war is ultimately futile and not in human kinds best interests. There will always be wars unfortunately, it is just too convenient for certain ideals, or perhaps too easy to misuse under the guise of certain ideals.
To your point, no the USA did not declare a war after 911, where as the Israeli prime minister has. It sounds like the trouble is not contained yet, so these issues are on going. The Israeli shekle has dropped about 5 or 6%. The UN are trying to intervene now. Until stability exists there will be extra risk to this investment - pretty obvious I think. I would expect the Israelis to regain control fairly quickly (though im no military expert). It does not sound ideal with Netanyahu on corruption charges either, but I deliberately do not follow news in that area of the world, as it seems way too time consuming for how depressing and frightening it is.
My point perhaps back to BVC is that this risk was perhaps always there, and has now manifested. You can use it as a chance to slander me if you wish, however your insults pail in comparison to what is happening over there.
I have been questioning why several foreign companies are listed on the London market. What's in it for the UK?
Clearly this is a set back for the investment, how ever you spin it.
I was aware of the blog, and a few others.
It is just a waiting game now, to see what the financing looks like. Then we could have a meaningful discussion of how far that money will take them, and what effect on the NAV it will have. Assets are not even in the price currently, so plenty of upside IMO. I doubt the losses would be that high personally, they are well attune to minimising the losses. BOD even forgoing payments. The period you are basing those losses on, dont forget all of the exceptionals they had: Cyber attack fall out, paying off Misra, Moving from Duraflex to Liniar (caused payments due at different times). Made redundancies. TV advertising etc.
I don't think you can model the cashflow from the previous 12 months. I do think the new financing might give us a clue, I would expect them to need money to make it through at least another 6 or 7 more months of this environment. In that time frame it would give them time to explore further restructuring, possibly even a strategic review.
Dof, if your interested, the differences there are:
1) Greater than 50% ii ownership (at far higher prices).
2) Property assets worth £15M vs £3M mcap.
3) Company has previously been very profitable. Contraction is temporary due to economy.
4) New lending in place, just being agreed - no placing confirmed by last RNS.
5) DP has had many more years in charge as CEO to buy shares. RN been CEO for about 12 months - He will have to buy on market as placing has been ruled out.
EQT has never been successful, has never had positive earnings per share, has never paid a dividend - SFE has.
Its a fair train of thought if you don't know the details, but there really is no similarity between the companies or their situation at all. I have also only been in SFE for about 5 weeks, so not seen month on month decline either.
I was once an EQT holder (around 1.3p down to 1p). As you say, things have just gone from bad to worse over the course of 3 years.
What gets me, scanning the RNS is that David Palumbo does not even own 1% of this company, if you need any evidence that even he is not convinced there it is. Everytime you consider buying these shares, just remember David Palumbo doesnt think its worth buying them, other than for a token show to steady nerves whilst the II clears off. I expect there is a nice carriage clock or picnic hamper somewhere for this. I do not think EQT has a future, maybe there are bits that might work if someone else ran them, but as a whole EQT are not going anywhere - and it looks likes no one is interested other than mug punters (v little II ownership here). My advice would be to sell, and if this is your largest / longest investment, have a serious think about what you did wrong here.
I have added PHP to my new income portfolio today. I like the sound of the listing on the JSE, and the general steady nature of this enterprise. Also bought in time to get the next dividend. Looks like some of the stock was short in September, but it seems to be reducing. (Also took SREI, LGEN and KGH). Aiming for 7% return to next October.
Well Nutmeg is in good company here then.
I do miss bluerill, has he sold (or been re-assigned?)
Did Resistance get the promotion, because Stock-sensie has such a daft name?
Can you really be the 'real deal' if you only post on Easy Jet?
I think I have a wet patch from laughing.
Alright Sunshine, I was following you up to this point.. "hen falling away to 409 at the close suggests that there will be no bid ". So since when has half a days price action, of about 5% meant anything? I was very tempted to slice some this afternoon, as I thought it would retrace. What the day traders who would pile in this at 8 am? How does the price action suggest there will or wont be a bid. You are talking out of your sunshine hole.
Tickhilltim, I appreciate your contribution here. Even though the RNS says that they have no intention of making a bid, my hope is that they do. What would be so bad about that? I have bought shares in a company, had some capital appreciation, and some dividends, and then get to sell my stake and find another. What is the problem?
The other side of what you say, is that this vehicle Abicad (which I dont know anything about), may just understand the value of the company - having the inside man. I think most here would agree that the share price seems undervalued. I certainly plan to buy some, though it is not top priority compared to other shares due to the low yield.
Also, have you considered that he might have stepped up to buy the stake because a fund was forced to sell? Maybe he didnt actively seek to buy this lot? The alternative would be further suppression on the open market.
Its interesting what you post, as I am also a TIG holder (formerly CNIC). Very similar situation there (to my untrained eye), is it? Max Royde is a non executive director, but runs the Kestrel Partners LLP, they are nearly up at 29%.
A few links (as its hard to follow due to the ticker change)
https://teaminternet.com/board-of-directors/
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNIC/directors-dealings-m5mbi08vkw0bfia.html
Finally, I did not understand the distinction that you made between a NED and a NE chairman, why does matter?
Asking genuine questions, hope it comes across like that.
PS, been in SRC, it has its own issues (buying earnings to meet BOD share incentives), but looks attractive currently.
Nicely done. I should probably get some more here.
Yes, I did read about it. Do you know any more details? seems it was privately owned. Feel sorry for workers, I have been in that position myself. From my understanding, this was the same company that had Duraflex, which Safestyle had to move away from (and also Eurocell). Can you add any colour to the storey out of interest? I will try and keep tabs on what happens to these businesses (bought or broken up), again please let us know if you can add any info.
I also invest in Epwin and Eurocell.
https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/hundreds-jobs-go-major-windows-27830380
https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/tewkesburys-duraflex-windows-systems-set-27129902
We have to separate here the position of the business and the value of the equity on the AIM market. Despite the business issues, this is still undervalued (again due to assets and ownership),with the possible short interest too, it has legs IMO. To some extent down at this level the trading vehicle is kind of detached from the company Safestyle, though I hope to be here long term. Look a the money people wanted to throw at CINE or AMTE as it went in to admin. Im surprised there isnt more interest here from the traders.
I was looking through the RNS again recently and the contract they got really starts in 2024. I think that would be FY2025.
I think they may get some small income from the contract post the current FY results we are waiting for, as they are making tooling. Normally you get paid for this as well (Rev for FY24). So, hopefully if they have not come asking already they might be able to make it through with out further raises. Perhaps they should think about selling Petrel, to shore up the other core business. I think that would help with re-rating.
I do not expect any sharp movements up, unless they get more contracts, or sell Petrel. I think it is the lack of visibility of funding that keeps the price down. PI's may not be interested, buy im sure a few funds might start if the threat of dilution went away. REAT is 17M mcap, and funds been buying recently.
I tried to work out TB's average price here, I guess it is over 4p. Since he holds so much, he would probably be better served with a complete sale / take over, something to consider. It could be one explanation for the lack of comms, but probably wishful thinking on my part.
I would be very happy to hold this for a few more years, if the balance sheet went in the right direction. I wont be putting in for more raises, whilst the valuation continues to fall and share holders are not kept informed.
The 6 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Alpha Financial Markets Consulting PLC have a median target of 570.00, with a high estimate of 672.00 and a low estimate of 500.00. The median estimate represents a 75.38% increase from the last price of 325.00.
Then you look at Aviva today, rumours of takeovers for £6, when it was trading at £3.80. The IC actually wrote an article on TO targets, citing this as one.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/08/21/private-equity-buyers-coming-for-niche-consultants/
Last but not least is Alpha Financial Markets Consulting (AFM), which advises asset managers, wealth managers and insurers. Its shares sank in June over concerns that the group had taken on too many consultants too quickly and that its sales cycle was getting longer.
However, the structural growth drivers still look robust as financial services firms are forced to navigate mergers, fee pressure and ESG. Meanwhile, Alpha FMC itself is debt-free and organic sales are still shooting up – particularly in its key market of North America.
Bought, once on the book at 78p for a new pf I have created today. And once on the ask at 79p in my SIPP.
Outlook for both >2 years. I see no reason why KGH cannot get back over £1, and head up to £2 in that time.
The new pf, is more geared to income, over 4 holdings, 2 REITS + L&G and KGH for income and growth. I was planning this earlier in the week, and it would have been Aviva instead of L&G, but TO news has spiked the price today.
The new pf sits alongside my extreme high risk crazy 'bottom picker', which is where I first found KGH, and where I took the 15 minute trade. Bottom picker currently down >40% (it turned out NOT to be the bottom on a few!), but I'm very excited about its prospects again over 2 years.
I thought we might see a spike down around 2pm (normally do with shorts), but I could wait as have work this afternoon.
AFM is a bargain if anybody cares..