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Not to be taken as advice:
I normally would have Sold around the 440-445 without hesitation, …BUT… with Aviva results due in a few days (March 7th) , looking at most insurance companies announcements : AXA Higher profits with more returns to shareholders, Allianz Boosts dividend with more share buybacks, UK insurers Beazley plans 300 million capital return. my own car insurance has risen just over a thousand pounds in a year, plus the huge influx of people fed up with the NHS waiting lists taking out private medical insurance. We “could assume” Aviva must be taking a good percentage of that business…
So is it worth the chance to wait for the possibility of great results then Sell out on the price uplift, or wait a little more time to receive the possible larger dividend as well , at the risk of watching this puppy fall in price before the divided…?
Easy for the investor, another difficult one for the trader…
Best of luck with your Own Decisions.
US market does look toppy but we can't say that about Aviva. Sure, America could dive 30% and take Aviva with it but I'm here for the long term and the excellent dividend yield.
Always a personal choice, but I’m no longer adding. I think this will continue higher this year, maybe to £5.
I think the ‘other runners’ are presently better value.
Does dividend yield trump capital growth, who knows, but there are signs the UK economy is bottoming out, FOMO keeps me in the market, and if the shares do their cycle I still have a good income.
Also got rid of some, doubled my money so more than happy with that
still holding a load which I hope to place into ISA next tax year
Sorry guys but I’m out. I’ve been selling like mad over last 2 days. No reflection on Aviva, but the record highs in the US with the tech stocks have really spooked me. I agree with XK on Advfn. It feels exactly like the internet bubble all those years ago and then bang, crash, wallop.
I am hoping for 460's as well as we go toward the results and then a jump. However there is always the old adage. Buy on rumour and sell on news. There could be a sharp exit on the results. Today, the share is a little sluggish....probably the profit takers moving in after a few good days plus the Friday sell off to get the price of a few pints over the weekend. If the dividend declaration is good it may sustain the price towards the ex-div date.
Could be regarded as self funding I suppose.
Now thinking this could go into the results in the 460's. Then on decent results jump another 5% +. Who knows. Looking positive for a change
Agreed - it is just good to know how to compare the old figures etc. Comparison purposes only etc - as it plays havoc with the historical charts. I've been in this baby for about 30 years :)
Thanks Nervous Nelly - that seems correct. Well done for remembering those figures LOL !!
Thank you Trotsky.
Not easy to trust old historical charts - so your method works with my old chisel and stone records !! Thanks.
Would you consider buying another one please
Increase in SP is 100% down to renewal of the insurance on my Range Rover next month.
Increased premium adds about 10% to forward EPS.
and anything that says that at any point the sp was over £5 in recent years is just plain wrong (likely ****ed up by the consolidation)
No. (i'm going from memory so forgive inaccuracies)
The price at the point of the capital return was 423.7p (sorry - i know it's sad to remember that) the 102p (ish) returned was 24% of that & your holding was reduced by 24%. The price pre all this messing is directly comparable to the post split price.
The whole point was to keep the SP the same pre & post the capital return. We didn't gain a penny on the return. Where we are now gaining is on the increased dividends paid. (again from memory 22p pre split to 33p now - so 50% increase).
Personally i didn't use the capital return to add to my holding, however I'm getting more income from a 24% lower investment. (Chips AND rice :))
....we've been here many times...i still feel there is some substance to them....fellow dip buyers sept /oct 23 happy atm......on a side note i see aviva have now taking over all Nationwide building society travel insurance......gla.
Hi Rothers, We received c102p per old share which is equivalent to c134p per new share (we received 76 new shares for every 100 old shares - 100*102p/76 = c134p)
This was a great post Trotsky - However could you just explain how you get to the C134p for the new shares?? I really can't quite get my head round it to compare onions with onions :) Thank you !!
"AoC, the 285p figure I quoted is not my figure; it's LSE's. Check the historical chart.
I've checked some AV purchases I made in Aug/Sep 2020 and they agree with the prices quoted on the historical chart, so I think it's safe to assume that LSE has not adjusted the older share prices to take account of the capital reduction in April 2022 when we each received 76 new shares for every 100 old shares held. So, I would asssume that your (sarcastic) "think about it?" comment would be in reference to multiplying LSE's figure of c285p by 100/76 (which would give your figure of c368p, allowing for some rounding differences).
Hmm, so far so good, but what about the c102p per old share (or c134p per new share) we received as part of the capital reduction? For a proper like-for-like comparison, you'd need to either add the c134p to today's price i.e. 368p vs c551p or deduct it from the adjusted July 2020 share price i.e. 234p vs 417p. You can't simply ignore the capital return or discount it as if it was a normal dividend return (it wasn't paid out of AV's current year profits and is non-recurring) simply because it's convenient for your argument.
For example, if (say) you'd originally bought 1,000 old shares at 284.5pps (LSE's quoted closing price) on 6 July 2020 they'd have cost you £2,845. Today, you'd own 760 new shares which, at 417pps, would be worth c£3,169. However, you'd have also received c£1,018 as part of the capital reduction. QED if you'd bought 1,000 old shares for £2,845 on 6 July 2020 and sold your 760 new shares today at c417p you'd have generated a total capital return of c£4,187 plus annual dividends of c£793 i.e. a capital return of c47% and/or an overall return of c75%. Not that bad when you consider Covid, war in Ukraine, Truss-enomics, rampant inflation, near zero growth etc. LGEN (run by a man) doesn't even bear comparison (unfortunately)."
Things are looking a lot more promising.......... about time hey !!
Highest it's been in last few years it about £4.60 so ignore what google says. Went a bit wrong when they did the buyback and reduced everyone's holding.
There is momentum in Aviva's SP and it is a brave person that would ADVISE you. I have a smaller holding than you and something has generated an impetus in the SP. For my part I am not taking profits yet. Results are not far away and I am waiting for them. Don't take this as ADVICE!
Don't forget ex-final div date is 12th April, so probably looking at a dividend then of around 20p Payment 23rd May), that's just under 5% of the current SP, so if you sell you'll be losing out on that. Interim is hot on the heels around 4 months later.
Also, there is potentially something happening here. For AV to shoot up 13p in one day and not retrace the next is an indication that someone, somewhere probably knows something we don't, as yet.
As with any share, it's a gamble. But if you have a good profit already, then maybe take it. It has been up to around 585p in the last couple of years and 460p in the last year, so I think it's a fairly safe bet it'll have a little further to go yet.
- Titles for this forum-
SHARE DISCUSSION FOR AVIVA. + AVIVI SHARE CHAT .
What did YOU want to talk about..? Your intellect…? lack of medication today..?
Begs a question if you need to come on here to make a decision