Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Good point rylidan. Also you should take into account the cumulative trades on both TMIP and TMI (and not just TMIP).
The other factors to take into account is that with a decent spread the market maker can afford to only adjust the ask and bid a few times a day rather than after a certain volume of trades and with the ex divi date on 9th May we should expect a bit of a price increase and then a 2c or 1.6p drop thereafter.
That’s a very good point thank you . I have seen many of my trades the exact opposite of what they were . Although the this is money site is normally quite good
Sam, you should not assume that the buy and sell indicators are correct. It's just an indicator if the trade executed above or below the mid point between ask and bid. There are many times with a wide spread where trades are incorrectly shown.
I am aware that the company from the top down are very frustrated by the share price and are examining several routes to improve it. I also dont understand the move up when there have been some big sells. Equally it has gone down when it has been all buys. The bottom line is that results by a well managed company will eventually speak for themselves., even in the highly challenging London market with all its short sightedness. But happy to take ANY rise given to date zero credit has been given to this new company
Hi Krusty, yes a strong breakthrough but still more sells than buys. I find this SP deeply frustrating I just wish I could fathom the reason, I don’t suppose a director would voice an opinion on this?
Fingers crossed !
Hopefully broken through the resistance at 80p now, onward & upward.
Beza, likewise I have nor seen any. The EPS is highly variable and subject to many factors but to give you a direct answer for the FY April 2024-March 2025 if the Time Charter Equivalent was to remain at $13,132/day (the figure at the end of March) for the full year and all other variables , particularly vessel values remained unchanged then I would expect PAT of around $24m or EPS of around 7 cents/share.
But given the capital intensive nature of the shipping industry and particularly since ship values can quickly go up or down the conventional wisdom is that the best valuation metric for shipping companies is Net Added Value (NAV) rather than EPS or PAT. A possible alternative is discounted cashflow but this is not easy to calculate for us mere mortals and still has assumptions.
To put this into perspective, in 2021 TMI had a PAT of $252.8 m which included a gain on assets (effectively vessel values) of $245.6m so PAT before asset adjustment $7.2m. In 2022 PAT $26.2m including a loss on financial assets of -$6.4m so PAT before asset adjustment $32.6m. H1 2023 PAT -$120.2m including loss on asset values -$130.7m so PAT before asset adjustment +$10.5, for H2 (oct 2023 to March 2024) I am expecting PAT $83 m including asset gain of $72m so PAT before asset adjustment +$11m. So you can see this asset adjustment or change in ship values is a massive number and leads to massive profit swings in the business.
The shipping industry can be incredibly cyclical, this roller coaster is not for everyone. The good news is that TMI shares are trading at a 33% discount to Net Asset Value , if the shipping industry improves that discount would be expected to reduce giving a potential increase in the share price. Things could go the other way. As Sam explains below the specifics on TMI are promising. But as I have said below, TMI might be in the top quartile of shipping companies but ultimately cannot buck the market.
Hi , I have never seen any . It is a very new company and seems to be almost ignored by many financial outlets. I strongly feel this will change as it’s an exciting story . A 2 year old company buys a 100 year old company ….. and will not stop there . Mike, three things I think of interest re profit . 1. Rates higher in last part of quarter and since. 2. Debt costs reducing at pace 3. Delisting grindrod. Huge saving both in money and indeed time and effort . Good weekend all.
Are any of you guys aware of any broker forecasts for TMIP? I use Stockopedia and TMIP is certainly looking very interesting but there aren’t any broker forecasts for the next 2 years ie eps / profit etc.
......plus on TMI , which is the same share but just in USD rather than GBP $119k bought and $24k sold.
After some deep thought the profit for the quarter was still lower than the dividend payment so we are still relying on vessel appreciation rather than the the usual vessel depreciation or vessel sales so we need to break this trend, but the numbers are slowly moving upwards.
A better day for the share. One purchase of £137,680 . Wish it had been mine ! Buys £250,154 Sells £14813 . The company is being run with rigid financial discipline and objectives. Not sure when but at some stage the market will have to take note.
Hi Gonsan, thank you for your kind comments . Some of the boards are appalling but putting my own entries to one side, I share your view that this board really adds value .
Sam, I agree.
On your comment that the debt to asset ration has slightly increased this is largely due to the delivery of the new build Handysize in Feb to Grindrod costing $33.5m which pretty much offsets the money coming in from selling the older vessels. Interesting that Grindrod sold one Ultramax but with the option to repurchase back at a later stage.
I just wanted to say hello after a very long time and tell you again that this is the best chat in LSE by far.
I eagerly read your comments and I think you guys are not only knowledgeable but very balanced in your views. For those like me that do not have that capacity it is incredibly useful.
I am very happy with my position in TMIP and how things are going.
Smooth sailing to all the fellow investors
Hi Mike, I am hoping in the coming weeks to find out if they have a target fleet number. Will advise if I find out. Agree with all your points. The charter rate for the last part of the quarter is really good as rates have increased further since that time . Prudent to keep money for hopefully the grindrod shares. The next step now is the Grindrod egm with a date presumably being given once the Singapore and Jo berg authorities have given the go ahead to the proposal
Hi Sam, yes very good set of numbers. The NAV increase of 12c/share was above my expectation of 9-10c and the profit for the period of $0.01/share or about $3.3m, although still a relatively small number, was above my expectation of a slight loss to breakeven so they have done well in the charter rates.. The current share price of around 79p (99c) still represents a 33% discount to that NAV of 148c so it has marginally come in.
I agree the focus on reducing debt even further is great although it is at the expense on reducing the fleet number (generally selling the older/smaller vessels) which we cannot keep doing but I trust the management on this.
Hi all, not as good as Mike at analysing the figures but delighted with the dividend and also note the following.
1. NAV UP FROM US 1. 36 TO US 1.48
2.FLEET NET VLAUE UP FROM US743.4 TO US 793
3.MARKET CAP UP FROM £220 to £254.3
4. AVERAGE CHARTER COMBINED UP FROM US11997 TO US12430 . Really good news is the rate being achieved in the closing part of the quarter at US 13132
Pleased that debt to asset tmi has reduced further. In an ideal world would have liked the debt to asset for the two combined companies to not have slightly increased but prudent to hopefully prepare to pay for the remaining Grindrod shares. Will be fantastic if this is successful and will be voting for it with my admittedly small holding in Grindrod shares. Thats my attempt at analysing the figures. Over to my friends for comment.