The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
As we’ve already suggested, acquisitions are more important to Rusty than BBs.
The EGM is for another acquisition - hence spending the money that is no longer available for BBs.
Will leave reading the documents until I get to a laptop but guess they think it’s more accretive than BBs (especially now divi is less than 10%).
Might be right for business but not necessarily for short term SP support. We’ll see!
They chose the simple quarter on quarter comparison (adjusted for divestiture) rather than the more telling year on year one.
They tell us they have a shallow decline rate of about 10% but then use flat figures!
All I want is them to give the information in a clear way which assists potential buyers make an informed choice. Not to pick and chose different metrics to muddy the picture.
You’re obviously happy with the report - seems the rest of the market aren’t.
I’m content to hold but I’m not seeing clear info to make me add more and it seems others aren’t either. No shorts closing following trading statement!
Sentiment is all here and they could go more to help.
PP - I’m aware they buy and sell stuff but your links talk prices not production - why not just say production down x% partly due to Y% decline and z% disposals.
One can only assume they are opaque on purpose - and given repeated “disinformation” they should be taking every opportunity to be open, clear and honest - but they keep failing to do that.
It wasn’t 0% decline year on year - look at my earlier post comparing Q123 and Q124 - decline in production more than 10% - they only reported Q423 against Q124 which was flat.
Now there may be a reason for reduced output over the 13 months but why not tell us?
Accountancy rules on derivatives and hedging there to clarify the accounts - or perhaps not!
We have this discussion every report - what is real income, expenditure and profit and what is imaginary non real loss or profit.
I'm expecting it because it's quarterly and I know when the last one was.
Point again is why don't DEC make the dates clear on their website - it's not listed on HL DEC info pages either.
It's not difficult and would provide a boost to potential investors for free.
Latius - thanks for link but my point was that DEC should be giving their investors / potential investors this info. If doing a precursory look at financials on DEC financial data you could assume next divi not til Q3 so no rush to buy at present.
If DEC aren't going to do simple things to help investor confidence SP is going to stall here.
Trading Statement not so attractive if production compared with Q1 2023!
Q124: Recorded average 1Q24 production of 723 MMcfepd (121 Mboepd)
Q123: Recorded average 1Q23 production of 833 MMcfepd (139 Mboepd)
Q124 ◦ Exit rate of 742 MMcfepd (124 Mboepd)
Q123 - Exit rate of 872 MMcfepd (145 Mboepd)
Cash flow etc impossible to compare due to tax credits, derivative adjustments etc
It would be nice if they listed the production comparisons between Q1 last year and Q1 this year and actually explained the reasons behind the differences. Are they pumping flat out or have they slowed whilst price is low? I don't believe GG's Chicken Little conspiracy theories but a clearer, less opaque explanation of the numbers would assist investor confidence.
New Corporate Presentation on DEC IR webpages.
A couple of things might inform holders / prospective buyers:
Priority remains debt repayment, sustainable (ie low) dividend, buybacks and acquisitions.
They're quite proud that even reduced dividend is top quartile so I don't see any special dividends on the horizon.
The following explains their BB strategy:
"Strategic Share Repurchases maintain financial flexibility for open market purchases, tenders, and block trades based on market conditions."
So looks like 3750 a day as routine with option to buy bigger packages when prices are low / cash is available.
They're aware of $6Bn of Occidental planned divestments coming soon - shopping spree coming with saved dividend money??
Dazzle - so you’re relying on Orcs to help the share price?
I’m relying on George the grey falling into a huge chasm with a Balrog and turning up next year as George the White with an army of Ents to help drag the share price up.
Apologies to those who missed Tolkien.
Skier - can you please clarify two of your points?
"The buy backs are accelerating." They started off at 3,750 shares per day and today were at (wait for it) 3,750 again. Now when I did my degree if something was at the same speed over a period of time it most definitely was not accelerating, there was no acceleration at all.
"The big players are buying a big stake." Think you mean one player has bought 5% - which other big players are you referring to?
By all means get excited and run about weeing on the floor - but if you're going to pretend to be factual then at least be factual - your constant exaggeration makes you look a fool.
The RNS was based on tripping the 5% - not all bought on a single day.
But I agree that much buying, even over a few weeks must have been a major support to SP - certainly better than the DEC BBs.
Perhaps knew what was going on with JAM and held off on the BBs accordingly.
From their website: "Jupiter is a specialist, high-conviction, active asset manager. Our purpose is clear – we create a better future for our clients and the planet with our active investment excellence."
So are Jupiter's active experts better than Voleon's AI Bots? Looks like Jupiter have convinced themselves there are no emissions / plugging concerns with DEC and that DEC are good for the planet. Just need to convince everyone else now.
I'm guessing GG doesn't work on Jupiter's investment team despite his insider knowledge of falsified reserves / production numbers / buying at spot to satisfy hedges.