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Dazzle - why do you say “Growth stock at best?”
For anyone buying today there is an assured dividend of $1.16 per annum which on today’s US price of $11.30 ish is just over 10% - not the 5% you quote.
I realise any LTH are getting less than that but think we’re now at the stage where they’ve either left already or have accepted they’ll hold and see what happens.
Simms - you’re continually deluded!
You said a while ago they had enough capital for 2 years - they clearly didn’t.
You continually expect a miracle in Northfork.
You continually say they’ve reached the bottom / turned a corner / are now on track! None of these are correct.
Of course you’re welcome to your opinion (as are C909 and Foxy) but mindless optimism is a much more dangerous investing strategy than numerically based cynicism.
It’ll need a fcuk sight more than good luck!
FCFY - and who do you think will pay Genel the 1.2Bn?
The KRG who haven’t any money because the ITP is closed and Baghdad don’t even give them enough to pay public sector workers or Iraq who weren’t a signatory to the BB and Miran PSCs?
Is a pre dividend payment day SP rise a thing?
Guess with any large dividend arriving in accounts there must be a market makers’ expectation that a proportion of share holders will use the dividend to buy more shares on payment day.
Thought I’d add the equivalent of tomorrow’s dividend this morning and beat the rush tomorrow.
Got in at 861 so in profit already and US looks to be rising as well.
Might have to sell today’s buys tomorrow just to get some capital gain from DEC :-)
Telling all parties that opening the ITP is mutually beneficial is merely stating the bleedin’ obvious.
Since when did mutual benefit outweigh political interest? Especially in the Middle East where looking after your region, tribe, religion or family is deemed far more important.
If we’re relying on common sense it might be a long wait - some backhanders or Baghdad political gain over KRG will be much more important.
I'd agree that the BBC is a waste of license payers' money and that it often gets things wrong due to a Political bias or just lazy journalism - but the definition of gaslighting below is a little more sinister than the BBC's incompetence!
"Gaslighting is the psychological manipulation of a person usually over an extended period of time that causes the victim to question the validity of their own thoughts, perception of reality, or memories and typically leads to confusion, loss of confidence and self-esteem, uncertainty of one's emotional or mental stability, and a dependency on the perpetrator."
I know I shouldn’t but:
GG you never proved any of your opinions!
You didn’t prove they overstated reserves.
You didn’t prove they overstated production.
You didn’t prove they had to contract at spot to fill hedges.
You based it all on a distant relative who once told you something about an oil field in the US. Hardly proof!
They’ve been saying the same on M&A for years - move slowly towards the right deal at the right price.
So:
- no update on M&A
- no update on arbitration other than should be complete by end of 24.
- Somalialand paused - no update on a restart.
- 107 million owed might be repaid in lump sums or might be an over ride arrangement.
- they only have the same news as everyone else on ITP reopening.
- continue to extract limited reserves and sell locally at $32-34.
Not much to move the share price there!
Terry, I guess the new 10% ish dividend makes BBs less attractive than they were at 30% ish.
If they were going to go heavy on BBs then results day was the day to do it - and they’d surely have known the SP was going to drop on news of a dividend cut.
Think a pause to see what happens and review cashflow probably DEC strategy now.
Agree holding might have been a good strategy prior to 2020 but that doesn’t seem to be the case now.
FTSE hasn’t increased in 5 years, income shares have prices not much different to 5 years ago.
Lots of reasons: obsession with tech for growth, higher interest rates, funds selling off shares to fund withdrawals etc etc.
Think evidence is that well timed sells and buys and averaging down (with or without dividends) is the route to maximum profit. Though of course timing is everything (as my wife says).
Some good news from the Directors' Talk website interview.
Dividend hasn't been reduced, slashed or cut - according to the CEO it has been recalibrated.
But ....... it's still meaningful!
It'll be interesting to see what happens when dividends land in accounts later this month - at 10% ish at this SP I guess some will reinvest.
Wander what happens now 10% is recalibrated dividend (rather than 40% of FCF) if SP should double over next few months it'll only be 5% - what'll they do then?
For those who wonder why we question integrity. Take a look at 2021 Capital Markets presentation (on DEC IR website).
They highlight reliable, meaningful dividends over and over again.
Lots of graphs / bar charts insinuating dividends forecast to increase into the future.
A figure of $2.5 billion in total dividends by year 20 (so 2041).
Long term dividend sustainability....
Moderate responsible dividend growth...
Protects investor returns with prudent hedge strategy
PRIORITIZES STAKEHOLDER RETURNS (DEC's use of capitals in summary, not mine).
Now perhaps changing market conditions have forced a prudent change of policy but lots of investors (I guess the older ones) were hoping for a decent return and preservation of capital (it was an income share after all) rather than slashed dividends and potential SP growth at some point in the future.
An explanation of the need to change track, a proposal for the AGM and a vote might have been a better way of proceeding - latest acquisition was only wells they were already operating from a current partner so doubt there was much competition at play.
Second time Notrex and I have agreed in a month!
Perhaps it’s just the longer term holders who have seen Rusty act in a different way to what he repeatedly promised (or at worst very strongly hinted at).
Slightly uncomfortable to carry on holding when you no longer believe what you’re told in investor presentations.
Yesterday may well be a brilliant new strategy and good long term but it is a major change of direction.
Malcy is not a clever analyst.
He’s a fat muppet who cuts and pastes RNS words to give the impression he thinks.
He recommended Genel at £14 and DEC at £1.20 plus pre consolidation.
He s just after a free lunch with any company who are paying.
He’s about in the same class as Motley Fool
Having scrubbed the tender offer they presumably have the additional 5% over and above planned 42million dividend payments to spend on buybacks today whilst SP has dropped.
Have to agree with sentiments already expressed that change to divi policy and bungled tender offer due to not understanding the rules in the US both reflect badly on management. Not sure Rusty's credibility has ever recovered from his last equity raise after hinting strongly he wouldn't so one again.
As per other comments he needs to stick to promulgated plan for 3 years now - not much credibility left....