The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I did watch TOTU - always finished with a scantily clad lady - doubt that’ll happen in Iraq.
Doubt TOTU would have worked with burkas and hijabs.
JDC - thanks for the calculations and the use of an envelope.
However, not sure it's reassuring. According to your calculations, over the 3 months: debt, interest and dividends exceed cashflow income by $32M - although made better by a one off disposal of $16M. So Company are spending more than they earn with the difference made up from RCF. Hardly sustainable - will it be a knife edge until first ABS is paid off in full? Most of the loans appear fixed rate so interest rate reductions aren't going to help unless they refinance.
I don’t agree with most of what GG posts but he has made a few fair points which shouldn’t be lost in the rest of his personal opinions.
Agree he’s correct that CC and PV fields are both very unlikely to contribute to the bottom line anytime soon.
His point on liquidity post recent RCF is also a fair one. Money available to borrow increases by $50M but liquidity only goes up by $10M. Doesn’t really matter whether it is company liquidity or loan liquidity with no acquisitions in the period and a few disposals, are they borrowing just to run the company at present? Or is it just specific events impacting the 2 days in question?
I run a company with £250k turnover and liquidity can jump about by 20% of that in a day in both directions (big invoice paid, VAT paid, corporation tax paid etc).
If, with no further acquisitions over H2 2023, debt isn’t falling something will need to change.
Again, where’s any evidence of pipeline reopening? Or even informed speculation by parties that might actually have an involvement?
Who expects? Why do they expect?
GG - investing all that time and emotional energy just so you can say “told you so” in 12 months seems unlikely to be your best use of time.
Couldn’t you try for a job in McDonalds instead? You might get stars then which must be more satisfying than a mere “told you so.”
There’s been much debate on the wisdom of this, the complexity of reporting in the accounts and whether it has a material impact on cashflow.
It’s hard to tell from the numbers but I had assumed (perhaps naively) that DEC only hedged their production.
Is there a chance that actually they’re doing a whole lot of futures gambling over and above production levels in an attempt to profit from NG and NGL price moves?
If so, that might explain some of the opaque accounting. Perhaps even the CFO departure.
No evidence of this, just asking.
Still lots of buys going on out there so some people gambling on continued existence (or a takeover).
Surely most holders are so underwater they’ll just hold on on the off chance of a miracle.
Sells aren’t big ones so only PIs offloading.
Lots of posters here have been asking for them to prioritise projects with financial returns in the near term.
In the long term, if they can now focus on MDCs, finall prove concept is worth funding and look to more certain European markets then this might a blessing in disguise.
Too underwater to sell up now. Hold and see. Take a brave person to be topping up here though!
I’d have thought if you were selling you’d have done it months ago as soon as pipeline shut down.
Selling now, at a lower price, just as things might be progressing seems weird.
Agree with JDCBC - for AoC to say "..forward hedging was underwater against market pricing. There is hope that there is something left over for equity dividends,.." is a bit misleading.
DEC may not get as much for the hedged sales as they might have had they held on for spot price but they do get certainty. They aren't losing money, they're still selling at a profit - just not as much as the profit might have been had they held out for spot prices in 6/12/18 months time. Lower profit but lower risk and lower borrowing costs.
Andy, you’re correct about the downward spiral in SP but what to do?
I’d suggest cutting dividend to pay down debt would have a negative impact on SP (most are here for divi and would be relatively content with a stable SP).
Think DEC are trying to inspire confidence with ramped up investor days, BoD share purchases and reluctant use of buy backs.
Guess only years of stable dividends and declining debt will prove the model (delayed or confused by further acquisitions until their accretive value is proven) so there’s going to be some hold on or sell out decisions to be made, which might again hurt SP.
Patience, top up or jump out seem to be the options - good luck all with your choices.
Confusing RNS!
Mr Williams resigns with immediate effect but continues to work til end of Sep!
Mr Gray goes from COO to CFO but is no longer on the BoD!
No wonder the market doesn’t like the news (or perhaps can’t work out what’s going on).
Surely the funds doing “the same job” have the same shares but charge you more?
Other than spreading your risk and increasing diversity across a fund, I doubt returns after charges will be as good.
I have a few funds and accept the lower returns due to charges to increase my diversity. The income shares return more in divs and capital growth (or not) is similar.
Mmm - not sure the required skill sets for CFO and COO are the same! One does numbers and spreadsheets and one does what are we going to do and how should we do it?
Replacing CFO with COO looks more like a personality thing than a better functioning board. Hopefully only temporary.