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Nudged past £27 for a few minutes today. Let’s hope it’s a sign of things to come. Surely an offer of £28-30 can’t be far off - and it may not be from BHP.
As I have mentioned on various other boards when a bid situation arises, stock exchange rule 8.3 is implemented which means that any organisation holding more than 1% of a target company's stock is required to declare it and any subsequent changes. As a PI it is useful because it means the big boys are playing poker with their cards face up. For anyone who wants to try to understand what is going on this page
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/AAL/anglo-american-plc/analysis
is invaluable.BUT, be aware that ALL is not always as it seems, major investors use swaps,CFD's options,any ruse they can think of to conceal their plans and motivations.
For sad geeks like me, it is great fun and I'll probably bore you with my interpretations(whether accurate or not?) over the next few weeks, feel free to ignore .....
There might be some selling into the close of business today. Personally, what with the
now rotation back into commodities, why would you do that.
The weekend could hold all sorts of positive scenarios.
This has bidding war written all over it. Speculate to accumulate!
I’ve just read Elliott have just disclosed a large holding. The yanks are all over this, same as
yesterday increased buying pre market opening.
Activist Elliott Builds $1 Billion Anglo American Stake Bloomberg
Or perhaps BHP have come straight back with £28.
I would say the yanks taking positions.
I wonder of Rio or Glencore have pitched in with a counter bid.
Sharp spike upwards last five mins, more news???
Https://www.ft.com/content/afe3c68d-1b77-4a2f-9055-22c72f06c48d
Once you read the RNS regarding advisors, it’s stated that Goldman’s are acting for Anglo,
goggling the chap a very big player in acquisitions, so as with DS Smith it appears the best
move is to sit on one’s hands and see what the ‘well paid’ advisors come up with.
Seems fairly obvious to just keep the share in the bottom drawer, and let value materialise.
I am of the same opinion but I am frustrated by the lack of a completion date and the price paid by AAL to FRASER.. Did he pocket the lot or donate it to charity? Certainly nothing was returned to shareholders. Had to write off £ 15,ooo. WOODSMITH should be in production by now.
Hi casapinos
You may not give advice but I think you are more qualified than many that do.
I hold shares here because of my interest in Woodsmith. Just 3 years from production, I'd like to hold shares in whoever owns Woodsnith.
OR
All here will be aware the SP is now ABOVE the estimated value of the BHP bid, and the frantic action yesterday with high volumes and literally millions of share trades going through the LSE " late reported" and the negative noises from the SA Gov. makes it clear that BHP will have to improve the deal substantially to get it through.
They can do that in a variety of ways, e.g. put some cash into the deal (a last resort IMV), persuade AAL to set in train the float of the Amplats and iron ore elements BEFORE the takeover, add a larger element of its own stock....the variations are numerous.
I don't give advice, but I am waiting to see where this goes: the absolute worst case in the short term is that the deal collapses BUT, that will leave AAL with a much higher perceived value than before, it will prompt AAL to "tidy up" its structure, probably by the divestment mentioned above (and De beers?) and make it primarily a copper and fertiliser play (both of which have good growth prospects). I'd be happy to hold long-term on that basis and would expect to see a steady SP recovery. Meanwhile, I expect lots of conflicting news, comment and further announcements from both companies....