1750mk1 Indeed they are all guilty of fanning the flames. I believe Iran are pushing hard because Trump does not have the political support back home to go to war with Iran... for now. But if Iran went and sank one of these tankers or targeted one of the many US bases in the area I think this would escalate very quickly.
I've been reading up about the Iraq Iran war and the subsequent Tanker Wars. This feels like the same events are repeating themselves only with Saudi Arabia now as oppose to Iran.
Soley - Correct me if I am wrong, KEFI's running of corporate costs and Saudi Arabia will be financed via draw down of the loans. The funds being provided by ANS will be held within the TKGP subsidiary and be used for the development of the project. That is my understanding of the situation. Moving forward, KEFI will require fewer funds given TKGP is fully financed through to production. But I do believe KEFI require the loans in order to keep things ticking over in the year ahead. I'm confident as TK progresses through development next year we will see increased interest here and the share price will move higher but that will be peppered with occasional dilution.
The response from SA and it's allies is adding to speculation I think. Events point to Iran ratcheting up ever bolder actions in the region, goading the US almost to start something the vast majority of it's citizens don't want.
That's an enviable entry price you have and I'm sure will yield a very nice return once the company start booking regular profit after tax. This stock is primed for a rerate IF a dividend is introduced and that could appeal to the board given the Chairman owns 50%.
Gold price is definitely still relevant here contrary to what Kristoff097 suggested below.
As at 30 June 2019, 45,000 oz had been sold forward to May 2020 at an average price of US$1,241 /oz. Gold sales over the 10 months beginning July 2019 up to May 2020 will be in the region of 70,000 oz. We will know soon enough whether the company are selling at spot price this past quarter, at $1241 or a combination.
As the company has demonstrated they have certain freedoms to choose when and how many ounces are sold forward they have probably been selling at spot price. Gold has risen very quickly over the past few months and if the company are selling at spot right now I would say that's a good decision. If gold continues to rise then it will look a bad decision but unless any of us are holding crystal balls nobody knows the correct course of action to take.
The macro-indicators are unquestionably bullish for gold but we shouldn't forget just how quick this rise has been. A period of trading between $1450-1550 would not be a bad thing and sales at this level will be very positive for Shanta and other gold producers going forward.
Most here realise there will be greater gains next year assuming gold holds or continues to climb. I believe we have seen AAZ and TSG topping out for a little while. More of my golden eggs in HUM and SHG than any others right now.
Chris11B - Good breakdown of the key points being made and glad to see someone else here is keeping tabs on Giustra! I posted the link to this interview earlier but alas it got swallowed up with the concerns posted here over the cancelled trade. Highly recommended viewing.
First quarter results are released a month after quarter end, normally on Halloween to give us all a treat!
Regarding first gold pour the dates remain unchanged as the past few updates make clear. All parties involved confirmed that the TKGP development is on track to begin in October 2019. They have suggested it will take 24 months however that is to full production so I would assume first gold pour will happen in the first or second quarter 2021.
Looks oversold now considering gold has climbed 20 points from todays low. Just bought more at 9.11p
Don't see trade talks improving. There may be more tariffs to come. The Fed will reduce rates 3 or 4 times between September and June next year according to analysts and nothing has changed.
Buy the dip.
topsharepicks - my thoughts exactly! $100m gross profit per annum is substantial. To put that figure into perspective take a look at Anglo Asians (AAZ) Full Year Results from May this year, 84koz production, gold price less than $1300/oz and $33m gross profit. The market value has doubled since that period to around £170m as a result of gold rising to current levels. Also bare in mind they are now holding net cash and pay a dividend. I expect it will take a while before KEFI reaches such heights but it's not hard to imagine TKGP first reducing it's net debt in years one and two with the potential early dividend alongside repayments. At any rate the value within TKGP will continue to rise once mine funds are transferred so the development of the mine can move ahead.
Just to reiterate what I wrote here on the 02/09 when the share price was hovering over 1p
"Interest is growing and the share price is creeping up despite stock being dumped on the market by the loan facility provider. We now know this to be the case as indicated in the recent Issue of Equity updates from 14th August and 27th August, specifically mention of the loan facility provider continuing to "hold less than 3% of KEFI's outstanding share capital" following the issue of shares. I believe the total number of shares from these two updates totalled about 34 million shares yet 3% of the share capital would be less than 22 million shares. I am assuming there are not multiple working capital providers working in tandem with separate interests that are involved. If that is the case, they are offloading stock at what appears to most private investors to be depressed market prices."
The share price has risen more than 25% since then despite stock being dumped on the market. More investors who understand the significance of the near term funding release are prepared to pay higher prices in order to benefit from the exposure KEFI has to the development of TKGP. This isn't a cash placing. Let's call it what it really is, a conversion of loan already in use. There is a clear distinction in my mind. Cash placings almost always drag the share price lower. We are at a point now where investor interest is proving so strong that it's able to soak up recent conversions of the loan.
CQ - I was invested in BAO for a time. Management without doubt sh@t on investors! As with a lot of AIM tiddlers lacking cashflow and requiring a large amount of capital for start-up most end up severely diluting the shareholder over a number of years to get to point of production. Of course KEFI has been no different, shareholders have been diluted to the point of capital destruction if you took a stake 7-8 years ago. That being said circumstances today are nothing what they were like on the eve of BAO's demise and ultimate delisting. The fact is KEFI have a stake in TKGP and have secured investment from the Government of Ethiopia and ANS (funding soon to be released) for equity in the project. Early site development has already begun and with the release of the $11.4m imminent the project will be fully funded and derisked. There are no signs of a takeover happening. We have a 45% stake in TKGP going forward as well as 40% interest in our Saudi Arabian exploration assets. We have just brought in a very experienced Director who knows how to run major mine development and gold operations. I have not seen anything to suggest we are being positioned for a swift sale. On the contrary we have patiently awaited the project financing and are in the early stages of developing TK. The very nature of KEFI's holding to me suggests they are in this for the long haul in much like Arianna having taken Kiziltepe through to production (they have a 50% stake)