Member Info for the_shareminator

That may be the case with regards a further delay and a slight dip in forecast production however it is more than baked into the recent share price decline.

The share price only really began to tumble in May after the oil price peaked and has yet to find a floor. This is despite results indicating a stronger second half incoming. We are less than two weeks away from the beginning of the second half. Forward looking guidance just doesn't seem to apply here at the moment.

Quite hard to explain the share price movements over the last few months. The stock was already struggling by the time Q1 results were issued with the price trading around £8.80 despite the oil price trading up above $100/bl.

Pre-war January oil price was around $60/bl but the market is taking little notice, obviously discounting the stock on regional risk and the anticipated reduced production in the first quarter.

Oil has fallen sharply in the past month but still remains 25% above where it was in January. So why the disconnect and especially in light of forecast improvements in the latter half of the year?

The last statement highlights a number of positive catalysts to come

- But for FSPO the rest of the portfolio guidance was unchanged and should benefit from higher revenues in Q2 noting the comment "Higher realised gas prices are expected in Q2 2026, reflecting Brent-linked pricing in Egypt"

- In Israel they expect an "imminent uplift in Brent-linked liquids revenues" with commissioning of the second oil train expected to complete by around the end of May. This will enable production to increase from the current year-to-date average of 13 kbbl/d to above 20 kbbl/d.

- Significant progress in Egypt: receivables materially reduced, concession consolidation nearing agreement, and exploration drilling set to begin:

- Post quarter end they received $125 million cash injection from EGPC (April), reducing the net receivables position to the lowest receivables balance recorded since Energean acquired the Edison E&P portfolio in 2020 (now $85 million). This is expected to further improve in the year ahead.

Incredible swing again today, good opportunity to trade the stock without leverage over the past few weeks, back in today and will accumulate on dips for the inevitable rebound

Zia Yusef has highlighted Serco's role in housing illegal immigrants in the country at the expense of the tax payer, writing directly to the CEO Anthony Kirkby in response to claims suggesting they would play no role in deporting illegals under a Reform government. Serco relies heavily on UK government contracts to take possession of residential housing, often above market rates in order to house tens of thousands of foreigners who arrived illegally. The gravy train must end.

@gotabesirius thanks for highlighting!

Just digging into post PEA exploration data and there was some excitement over the Golden Eye Deposit discovery which is a gold-dominant deposit 3 kilometres from the existing Copper Rand processing plant. Shallow mineralization (within 100 metres of the surface) with the MRE at 274,000 ounces of gold equivalent at an average grade of 4.9 g/t AuEq, mostly inferred at this stage.

Recent infill and expansion drilling has yielded high-grade intercepts - 5.9m at 34.1g/t and 3.0m @ 39.5g/t for example.

The original PEA mentions an average processing rate of 2,200 tonnes per day (tpd) which should be higher following the 78% increase in Measured & Indicated (M&I) tonnage in the years since. Their existing Copper Rand mill can run at 2,500 tpd (900,000-tonne-per-year). The original 10.5-year mine life will be longer certainly and the Golden Eye discovery might provide an option to tap into shallow, high grade gold before transitioning to the larger Corner Bay copper deposit.

There will be much higher revised commodity price assumptions as mentioned, note the 2022 PEA base case vs current low end analyst forecasts:

Copper: $3.50 USD/lb vs current $4.50 USD/lb

Gold: $1,650 USD/oz vs current £3,600+/oz

Silver: $20.00 USD/oz vs current $50+/oz

As a rough production turnover estimate, 900ktpa at average 3.2% CuEq (incl Golden Eye and Corner Bay deposits) is production of roughly 28,000 CuEq per year. Base case $4.25/lb ($9,370/t) turns $260 million gross revenue p/a (CAD$360 million).

Market is valuing the post-acquisition company at around £320 million today which does seem low but is perhaps partly due to uncertainty surrounding the lack of Chibougamau Project's production and economic profile. It is early stage and the PEA will be a catalyst along the way but CAML (or their shareholders rather) appear to be paying a substantial sum for Cygnus. Again no mention of capital requirements at this stage which has likely contributed to the drag on the share price.

It's purely an exercise to raise immediate capital, not to enable institutions in. Great for the company as it's an interest free cash boost. Atome took advantage of similar circumstances in late April when demand was high, taking the wind out of the share price but ultimately strengthening it's balance sheet. These events are almost always negative short term for holders of stock so I expect the share price to languish for the next few weeks but it should provide medium-long term value creation given the company's confidence in SOFC tech demand.

I think most people buying are intending to vote for, I certainly am.

Nicely up post bank holiday, bucking the wider market movement. Presumably related to the company's investments rising

Nice buying opportunity. 7% drop on what should turn out to be a short term, non-story

A temporary dip in the oil price and related stocks but the medium term picture remains clear. A supply crunch is coming, no matter what peaceful resolution is or isn't agreed

20 million barrels of oil and refined product transited the Strait of Hormuz daily, roughly 20% of global supply and this is down to a trickle. The supply disruption ranks as the biggest in recent memory. Specifically on crude oil it's closer to one third of global supply (15 mb/d) impacted and once depleted reserves become apparent there will be higher prices.

Even once peace is established and the Strait of Hormuz opened it will take many months for supply to begin to recover and analysts predict years before output reaches 15-20 mb/d

www.brookings.edu/articles/the-timing-of-the-impending-crude-crisis/

@TopFCA I tend to agree with your assessment, the dividend cut relates to the Q1 suspension and was a prudent measure given the circumstances, note the CEO's comments - "Although the business is underpinned by strong fundamentals and a positive growth outlook, the suspension clearly impacted Q1 2026 financial results"

The company state dividends are 'subject to quarterly review' and in the most recent update mention 'as a direct consequence of the 41-days of production shutdown in Israel between 28 February to 9 April, Q1 2026 financial performance was meaningfully lower than originally anticipated.'

This wasn't something the board could bake into forward guidance and trimming the dividend this quarter makes sense. I think much will depend on performance remaining stable for the remainder of the year, given risks in the region as well as volatile prices.

Perhaps Q2 dividend will fall somewhere between the long term average and last quarters as the financial picture becomes clearer, 20 cents would be my mid case rising back to 30 cents in the final two quarters of the year which puts us on an 8% yield.

Perhaps the overly cautious statement by the board is intentional so they may take credit for an improved outlook later in the year. In such a scenario this presents a nice buying opportunity and potential return over the next 6-7 months.

Combination of risk off across markets, particularly UK with Labour divided and a possible leadership contest over summer, inflation and recessionary fears increasingly feeding into medium term expectations with the prolonged war in the Middle East, a deflated oil price this week as the market holds out hope that there will be a resolution to the war in the Middle East etc

I would be surprised if the US and Iran can agree a deal this month given demands by Iran but the market is pricing this in as the more likely of the two options, plan B being US strikes. The market disconnect, seems more apparent with each passing day as oil should be trading higher on risk sentiment and therefore producers should be creeping higher on forward earnings. Even with oil above $100/bl the sector looks to be discounted with only a handful of stellar performers recently like Pantheon Resources bucking the trend.

The relative discount in share price following the confirmation of NEO NEXT+'s takeover bid for 7.7p is likely due to market scepticism over whether the deal will succeed following RockRose Energy's collapsed bid earlier this year. Today's update with the £2.9 million facility provided to Deltic demonstrates both parties are keen to close this deal. The question mark remains over regulatory approval now The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) who previously rejected RockRose Energy.

Understanding WHY that deal collapsed helps answer the question whether there is a greater chance of approval this time around with NEO NEXT+

The proposed £6.9 million acquisition of Deltic Energy by RockRose Energy (a subsidiary of Viaro Energy) collapsed in March because the UK's North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) failed to approve the change of control of Deltic’s North Sea exploration licences for the following reasons:

1) Regulatory Roadblocks: The NSTA repeatedly extended deadlines, requested additional information regarding a change of control of the licences without setting a definitive deadline

2) The NSTA held regulatory concerns over Viaro, part of a broader pattern of regulatory scrutiny surrounding RockRose's parent company, Viaro Energy, and its leadership (will discuss more below).

The NSTA held up approval for Viaro Energy's acquisition of Deltic Energy due to severe concerns regarding corporate governance, executive lawsuits, and alleged fraudulent financial documentation surrounding Viaro and its CEO, Francesco Mazzagatti.

- Alleged falsified financial paperwork: The NSTA received an official letter exposing that the financial assurances Viaro provided to pass regulatory checks were built on fraudulent and "fictitious" paperwork. This included a disputed £250 million loan facility that was allegedly a sham and cancelled within 24 hours.

- Active fraud & embezzlement lawsuits: CEO Francesco Mazzagatti was entangled in UK and international court battles including a London High Court case accusing him of embezzling €143 million from former business partners and a separate Italian criminal trial for bribery and money laundering.

- Asset-stripping judgements: Viaro lost a UK appeal regarding accusations of asset-stripping a North Sea subsidiary to evade field decommissioning costs.

- Pattern of regulatory rejection: Major operators Shell and ExxonMobil previously pulled out of a massive 17-month Southern North Sea asset sale to Viaro after the NSTA similarly refused to grant clearance.

By contrast our new bidder, NEO NEXT+ Energy is not facing issues of integrity of fraudulent behaviour. They recently were fined for minor operational compliance errors, paperwork filed on time etc, self reported and paid the fine, the NSTA noting that NEO NEXT+ "engaged openly" and moved swiftly to correct their mistakes. NEO NEXT+ also has transparent capital reserves and are a highly capable operator in this field.

A takeover of Deltic Energy by one of the North Sea’s largest producers has moved a major step closer after the AIM-listed firm confirmed it has repaid all outstanding debt owed to RockRose Energy.

The London-listed explorer said it had now cleared all amounts outstanding under a term loan facility agreed with RockRose Energy in June 2025, following the drawdown of a separate £2.9 million facility provided by NEO NEXT+ Energy Upstream UK.

The funding forms part of NEO NEXT+’s recommended cash acquisition of Deltic, announced earlier this month.

NEO NEXT+ was created through the merger of TotalEnergies’ UK upstream business with NEO Energy and is now one of the largest producers in the UK North Sea. Its shareholders include TotalEnergies, HitecVision and Repsol.

The company offered 7.7p per share for Deltic in a deal valuing the Southern North Sea-focused gas explorer at around £7.2 million.

The latest update marks further progress towards completion of the deal after a previous bid by RockRose Energy, a subsidiary of Viaro Energy, failed to complete before receiving regulatory approval.

www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/market-watch-neo-next-takeover-of-deltic-advances-after-debt-repayment

Global oil stocks are being run down at a record pace as supply losses mount due to the ongoing Iran war, the International Energy Agency has warned.

In its latest outlook report, the IEA reports that global oil inventories fell by 129 million barrels in March, and by a further 117 million barrels in April, as countries dipped into their reserves to cover the shortfall following the Middle East conflict.

The IEA, which ordered the largest release of government oil reserves in its history in mid-March, reports:

More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace.

The IEA also forecasts weaker demand this year, as the jump in prices for crude oil and refined products leads to demand destruction.

World oil demand is forecast to contract by 420,000 barrels per day this year, to 104m bpd, which is 1.3m bpd fewer than it expected before the Iran war began.

It adds:

The petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently most affected, but higher prices, a weaker economic environment and demand-saving measures will increasingly impact fuel use.

I wouldn't be so sure at this stage, even if the war ends tomorrow and the Straits open up it will take many months before Middle East production and exports return to pre-war levels, the full impact of the disruption to oil supplies has yet to wash through markets and the global economy.

According to Reuters the rapid depletion of commercial stockpiles and emergency reserves has come at a time when stockpiles typically build in preparation for peak demand during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The global energy system will soon enter peak demand in a weakened position to deal with the spike in consumption ​from summer driving, aviation, farming and freight.

"Even if the conflict, and I hope so, will end in the month of May, we would exit the conflict with clearly some very low inventories," TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA), opens new tab CEO Patrick Pouyanne said last week, estimating ⁠global hydrocarbon stock draws of 10 million to 13 million barrels per day have resulted in at least 500 million barrels already consumed from stockpiles.

For comparison, the U.S. has about 460 million barrels in crude inventories.

Equinor (EQNR.OL), opens new tab CEO Anders Opedal said on Wednesday that it would take at least ​six months for the market to get back to normal, even with peace in the Middle East.

Demand is likely to run higher once the conflict is over as countries and companies worldwide look to rebuild stockpiles and restart shut-in production facilities - ​and some countries that have suffered shortages start building new stockpiles.

Australia, which imports roughly 80% of its fuel and has experienced shortages since the start of the conflict, announced plans on Wednesday to spend $7.22 billion to build up fuel reserves. Meanwhile the European Commission said last month it would consider reviewing ​the EU's requirement for countries to hold at least 90 days of oil stocks, to include a specific jet fuel requirement.

Europe could ​face jet fuel shortages as early as June if disrupted Middle East supplies are not fully replaced, the International Energy Agency has warned.

In Asia, crude imports fell 30% in April from a year earlier to the lowest since 2015, according to Kpler, underscoring the extent of supply disruption in the world’s largest oil-consuming region.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-supply-shock-worsen-inventories-fall-further-even-if-conflict-ends-2026-05-07/

@Tenapenny correct, Capricorn Energy PLC, Petrogas International E&P Coöperatief U.A., and Blue Concept Hld AS are not connected to NEO Next+. and are instead separate parties that have made approaches regarding a possible offer for Deltic in the past month or so.

NEO Next+ Energy Upstream UK Limited is specifically listed as an offeror for Deltic Energy PLC as of April 22nd.

https://www.investments.halifax.co.uk/research-centre/news-centre/article/?id=35916500&type=rns

Good time to top up if sitting on a relatively small loss as there's still another 15-16% gain to be had.

Well I doubt we can buy at 60p tomorrow, the new floor may be low to mid 60s with the company much better placed, assuming a strong institutional investor interest given the generous discount on offer. If we can buy at 60p that will be a gift!

Confirmation of agreements signed for the Villeta Project financing is a major catalyst for those waiting to take a larger slice of the Atome pie.

ATOME (AIM: ATOM), a world-leading low-carbon fertiliser developer is pleased to announce that it has today entered into definitive Transaction Documentation in respect of the US$245 million equity funding (the "Equity Agreements") for the US$665 million flagship 260,000 tonne-per-year, low-carbon green fertiliser project located in Villeta, Paraguay ("Villeta" or the "Project") thereby completing the arrangement of all debt and equity financing for the Project, and declaring Final Investment Decision ("FID"), subject only to the passing of the necessary shareholders resolution approving the Transaction.

ATOME also intends to raise approximately £23.5 million before expenses through the Placing and Subscription, and up to a further £0.5 million via the Retail Offer, (together, the "Fundraising"). The net proceeds of the Fundraising will be used by ATOME, together with US$5.8 million of its credited back costs in ATOME Paraguay, to invest in US$31 million of new Preferred Shares in the Project pari passu with the Project investors and in addition, provide working capital for ATOME's pipeline of projects using Villeta as a springboard. The investment of US$31 million for the new Preferred Shares is in addition to ATOME's already announced contingent carried interest of US$60 million in Villeta.

We are back to 900, far above the average for the sector today. Analysts say the fact Iran have laid out a 10 point proposal, despite rejecting the ceasefire proposal shows they are negotiating as Trump indicated. Whether it is in good faith or to buy time is anyone's guess but the market is assuming Iran are acting out of a position of weakness with imminent US and Israeli strikes as well as the likelihood of troops on the ground.

Media reports Polymarket, the 'Prediction Market' estimates there's a 100% chance US forces enter Iran by end of month regardless of negotiations which reinforces the belief fuelling market moves, that the US are negotiating from a position of strength with tens of thousands of troops deployed or heading to the region.