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Nobody in my investment group had heard of BEN two months ago and I know a couple of friends who refused to dip toes. They could be up 20-25% had they had the conviction to make the contrarian decision to buy against the market trend. The share looks to have swung right back into favour now. Admittedly many of us (myself included) now wish we had loaded up more over the Christmas period. Enjoying the discussion and speculative musings, there is much to be excited about and the potential catalysts for share price growth look stronger by the day.
GLA
Hounddog10 - Thank you for adding those points and on dividends I agree, a twice yearly dividend with scope for increases will be a driver. Eric mentioned raising dividends with Singida cash-flow during the last HY results presentation which gives us an earliest date for review of mid July. Given the early stage of Singida's mine life at the Interim period they may opt to delay raising the dividend until they have achieved at least one quarter at optimum production levels. We would in theory then be looking at a increased dividend in January 2024 when the FY 2023 results are due.
With regards an initial mine plan at West Kenya I couldn't find anything in the updates although following the MRE due this quarter it wouldn't surprise me if they did announce they are pursuing this avenue. The high grade, near surfact nature of the resource with a substantial portion M&I opens up the possibility of early open pit mining. This early route to production at Ramula was mentioned in the Q&A session of the HY results presentation (link to audio below).
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/half-year-results-31
Q1: Is open pit mining a possibility at West Kenya to generate some early cash? if it is a possibility what rough timescales?
"What we are doing as part of the Feasibility study is we are looking at possibly bringing Ramula on as an early producer. Ramula would be an open pit operation very similar to Singida. There's a couple of reasons why we are looking at that. One is it's a phased approach and less requirement for capital. Number two, open pit mining is much simpler than underground. We believe we could put something like that into production much sooner than a larger underground operation."
To clarify the future annual cash-flow of 60-70 million dollars mentioned is NL + Singida
There are a number of value catalysts coming in the year ahead including:
- Delivering the 2023 work programme in Q1 2023
- Confirming another strong quarter production in Q4 2022 (results due in two weeks)
- Completion of the Isulu Bushiangala and Ramula Mineral Resource Estimate in Q1 2023
- Announcing completion of Singida construction and first gold pour before end of Q1 2023
- Achieving increased group production and record half year production
- Record half year revenues and forecasting anticipated record full year revenues
- Increasing mine life once more at the New Luika Gold Mine
- Reducing net debt position, turning net cash positive by Q4 2023
- Achieving 100,000 oz production on an annual basis by end of Q4 2023
The full list is much longer but I don't have that to hand. Welcome to copy and paste, adding additional catalysts to it. We are expecting future annual cash-flow from Singida of 60-70 million dollars according to Eric (link below, 2 minutes in). This interview is 3 months old when gold was trading around $1650/oz so at current pricing gold sales should yield significantly more than the low end figure Eric mentioned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7FMByV18mw
Happy New Year all!
Gold trading at $1850/oz earlier a level not touched since June. In the same 6 month period Shanta have made small gains overall and outperformed the general market. Certain Noel-it-alls have absolutely nothing to contribute and are only here to gaslight genuine holders.
Shanta Gold are less than 3 months away from commissioning their Singida mine. They are due to report improved second half production and an a significant output increase in the year ahead (+60% from current 65koz levels). The company took out a loan facility in H1 further weighing on the share price earlier in the year. The net debt position will quickly recede after Q123 and likely turn net positive by Q323 so plenty of reasons to be positive.
Stay focused and stay humble folks :)
MMs happy to offer 9.62 which means there are still some desperate people selling way below fair value. We are due a large resource upgrade in the next couple of trading sessions and quarterly results in about three weeks time.
The gold price is trading around $1820/oz well above quarterly lows, providing a cash cushion as Shanta complete their capital investment and commision Singida in 2-3 months time with first gold pour expected by the end of March.
Nice to see us back at 25p again! Christmas come early for I3E holders :)
$1825 now :)
We also have the prospect of China reopening. Restrictions in Hong Kong relaxed further today. USD should continue to weaken next year with all these headwinds and prospect of a looming recession.
The chunky sales going through at ever low prices irrespective of the recent strength in the gold price, exploration successes at West Kenya and impending first gold pour at Singida remind me of when Shanta had a distressed seller a couple of years back. I can't recall the name of that II but they ended up dumping stock at 4-5p when shares had been trading at 6-8p a couple weeks before. Once they were clear the stock price began to recover. Assuming the same is happening here and we may see a holdings notification in the next couple of weeks
The Zimbabwe effect?
Sentiment has been shot to pieces across the sectors. My holdings in Pan African, Tharisa, Taseko, Wheaton, Endeavour and my favourite tiddler Goldplat should all be moving up under normal conditions following recent gains in commodity prices. Others like Fresnillo and Centamin are doing a little better but nothing special
Fortune favours the brave! :)
With the capital raise all but complete, the balance sheet significantly improved and operations to possibly exceed guidance in Q4 this is the time to buy Resolute Mining. The turnaround in Dollar sentiment coinciding with these changes adds further weight. Shorts shot up prior to the raise but are beginning to reduce now.
With GDP disposing of their (entire?) holding in GCAT recently I was curious to know if any holders here have bought in for exposure? Good update today with further derisking of the stated growth potential and goal to expand production to 24koz.
An update confirming the new loan with Coris Bank International is due in the next month and hopefully they comment on the operational changes and whether it has stabilised production in recent weeks. Hopefully these will be long term fixes and stop the haemorrhaging of cash by the beginning of next quarter.
Komana East deposit was historically the highest grade and best performing source of ore so there is potential for a much improved quarter, assuming the operational changes onsite are running smoothly.
A good level to enter / average down with possible 20-25 gain in the next month or two assuming they achieve upper end revised guidance and with the gold prices trading at $1750/oz. The company's valuation is ridiculous but then this rightly reflects it's 2022 performance.
Ariana Resources upgrades Tavsan mine’s gold and silver resources
Ariana Resources PLC (AIM:AAU) has unveiled a 22% increase in resources at the Tavsan Mine in Turkey, where construction work is ongoing and a further upgrade is anticipated in 2023.
The company's managing director Dr Kerim Sener described the new resource as “a tremendous enhancement” for the project.
In a statement, Ariana announced a new global resource of 6.6mln tonnes at a grade of 1.44 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and 5.26 g/t silver, to give a total of 307,000 ounces and 1.1mln ounces of contained gold and silver respectively.
It also highlighted a ‘high-grade domain’ within that resource comprising 1.1mln tonnes at 2.74 g/t gold and 4.89 g/t silver, representing 96,000 ounces of gold and 171,000 ounces of silver. This part of the project is now defined in resources for the first time.
Ariana also said it estimates some 34,000 ounces of gold in lower-grade material which it does not currently classify as a resource.
Drilling is underway on exploration targets, a programme of some 4,600 metres, at the same time as construction work continues and Ariana noted that the Tavsan resource is “not closed off in several areas”.
Some 83% of the project’s current resource now sits within measured and indicated resource categories.
"This mineral resource estimate represents a tremendous enhancement for Tavsan, as construction continues on site,” Sener said in the statement. “Not only has the total resource grown to c.7mlnt tonnes but about 1mln tonnes of this is now attributed to a newly defined high-grade domain containing sufficient resources to potentially satisfy up to three years of gold output in its own right.
“This is all the more impressive considering that the 2016 Scoping Study had only considered a total mine life of four years from the entire resource. Current planning is consequently focusing on a mine life of eight years.”
Sener added: "When we acquired the project in 2008, we did so with the expectation that the resource could grow to this scale. Now that we have achieved this significant milestone, and after having completed additional work, we see that there is further room for growing the resource.”
The Ariana managing director told investors that the resource estimate will be updated again in 2023 following the current drill programme, meanwhile, today’s new estimate will be used to advance financial models and mine optimisations whilst the company works to complete its definitive feasibility study.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/999666/ariana-resources-upgrades-tavsan-mine-s--and-silver-resources-999666.html
I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. Covid cases are set to climb to 100,000 daily next month and given how risk averse the National Health Commision has been they will probably introduce new lockdown measures over the winter.
On the bright side a recent report by Heraeus Precious Metals detailed the 2022 platinum supply deficit from South Africa is expected to be about 15% lower year-on-year, about 6.95 million troy ounces, largely due to supply chain and operations issues. The likes of Sibanye-Stillwater which is one of the largest platinum miners having ongoing disruptions with labour and electricity shortages have also contributed.
Platinum prices should remain supported at a time of weakening demand fundamentals for palladium and rhodium owing to uncertainty with the Chinese economy. If there is a reopening next Spring the auto industry metals will move higher but for now at least it's a waiting game..
Today's update wasn't due until January according to the update 7th November but it's very welcome news!
It's worth re-reading the past 2-3 West Kenya updates again along with today's news for a better understanding of the scope of this asset and recent exploratory successes.
West Kenya Project already has resources of 1.6 million ounces (incl 378k oz Indicated).
Phase 2 drilling programme aimed at conversion of the Inferred resources to Indicated at Isulu-Bushiangala and at Ramula all but complete. Isulu and Bushiangala infill drilling revealed near surface, bonanza-grade gold intercepts of 721 g/t, 210 g/t and 172 g/t. The current mineral resource estimate (as of March 2022) across these two locations stands at 1.12 Moz grading 10.80 g/t Au of which 378,000 grading 11.70 g/t is in the Indicated category. The CEO has already confirmed it will be a "significant conversion of the Inferred resources to Indicated ounces" and we will find out exactly how much before year end.
Today is the first time I believe Eric has referred to Ramula Camp as a potential "+1.5 million ounce gold camp within West Kenya".
We will likely hear more about Anomaly 22, the Miruka system, and Ochiegue (within 5 km radius from Ramula) in the new year as Shanta aggressively pursue their goal of a high grade, multi-million ounce resource at West Kenya.
Looks positive here going into 2023 and beyond. 10% dividend supported by better than expected results and profits forecast to be up despite a small fall in revenue.
Smiths News: Better FY22 than expected; 10% dividend yield
Smiths News’ FY22 results were strong, with revenue and profit ahead of market expectations. Continuing adjusted PBT increased by 0.6% to £31.1m as financing costs reduced and net debt fell to £14.2m. Management was successful in mitigating inflation and controlling costs within budget. FY23 has started well, with uplifts in one-shot revenues and ancillary income. However, we have upgraded our forecasts, and an increase in the discount rate has driven a decrease in our DCF valuation from 94p to 89p. Smiths News trades on an FY23e P/E of 3.8x with a 10% yield, which we believe is attractive for a company with such cash-generative characteristics.
Confidence at this level. Might they announce another end of year share buyback shortly like they did last year..
First time i can recall the company mentioning a figure and a preliminary date for Zafar although there has been talk of ramping up production previously so this is welcome news.
Zafar entering production in H223 is the first step towards becoming a 100,000oz per annum producer.
As my fellow holder below mentions it would be more reassuring if we also learnt the true costs in the near term and whether our 8-9% dividend will remain safe