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The market is beginning to wake up to the opportunity value on offer.

Q1 26 results next month will blow the previous quarter results out of the water.

Would be mildly disappointed if we are still trading below £1 per share come November

Thread subject * 10%+ yield maintained

2025 Guidance & Outlook

- Revised production guidance 145-155 kboed (from 155-165 kboed) attributed to the temporary suspension in June and also pushing back commissioning of the second oil train impacting Israel guidance.

- Cost of production (including royalties) reduced by roughly $30-40 million to $560-600 million (from $590-640 million) as a result of lower royalties mostly.

- Development and production capital expenditure maintained at $480-520 million.

- Decommissioning expenditure reduced by roughly $20 million to $60-80 million (from $80-100 million).

- Year-end 2025 net debt forecast of $2.9-3.1 billion.

Lots to digest from yesterday including the video call for which a copy of the transcript can be found below

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENOG.L/earnings/ENOG.L-H1-2025-earnings_call-328891.html

Energean reported H1 2025 revenue of $800M down on previously announced production disruptions but encouragingly output appears to have bounced back stronger than expected post HY period with "record August output of 178,000 boepd".

Cost guidance has reduced and there is no change to the dividend (the video call discussion suggests any cuts would be gradual)

FY2025 production guidance revised to 145,000–155,000 boepd.

Ex dividend is next Thursday (18th) and given we are quite near the bottom of the recent trading range with H2 outlook fairly steady it seems like a good time to buy. Dividends to be paid on the 30th September.

Nice little trade, well done to those long termers already in. Looks a good time to drop a placing immediately off the back of this to secure equity position at around this level.

"Main broker has 2 Analysts expect the price to decrease by 39%. to 128p"

Don't think anybody is taking them serious or anyone else parrotting those figures. The gold price trading up 40% this year at $3,600 (futures: $3,655+) with Serabi on track to produce 40koz this year.

Cash position grew by $8 million in the first half on post-tax profits of $18.9 million (pps: 24.99c up 120%).

The gold price is now $500 higher than the previous six month average. Cash costs are less than $1,400/oz, AISC less than $1,800/oz

Last we heard "gold production from Coringa is expected to exceed the original plan for the year" so an upwards revision to guidance is likely.

Sylvania's SDO average basket price is higher now than it was last month when platinum and palladium prices peaked.

Platinum: $1,362 (64.6%)

Palladium: $1,146 (23.2%)

Rhodium: $7,425 (12%)

Gold: $3,405 (0.2%)

4e gross basket price: $2,044/oz today

This is averaging just below the multi-year high set at the end of last month when Rhodium spiked

The fundamentals are aligning, reminiscent of the 2019-20 PGM price dynamics we witnessed. This time however Sylvania's operational and forward looking economics are even better:

- strong, stable SDO production

- secondary revenue source now (Thaba Chrome / PGM coming online last quarter)

- CAPEX / JV investment to build Thaba complete

- cash depletion (Thaba build) reversing this quarter

- receivables from last quarter set to be much higher

- higher operating margins thanks to rising basket price

Besides a handful of established gold producers that are trading with low P/E and significant cash generation nothing else compares to Sylvania's 6-12 month outlook.

It doesn't matter how much gold Resolute is pouring if the junta in charge can confiscate it all, raise false charges of money laundering and throw key company personnel in jail as a bargaining chip. This is why Resolute are urgently seeking diversification outside of Mali, it's one of the worst places to be operating with no signs of improvement.

Reform dare I say is bigger than Farage now anyway. Come the next general election they will be either form the next government or the opposition. The reason 40% of councils went to Reform in May is because of mass immigration and Labour cannot solve this with their one in one out gimmick. It will require a much tougher stance. Who knows perhaps Starmer will take more decisive action but I wouldn't hold my breath..

Q2 Financial highlights

- Revenues of $116 million on sales of 19 million pounds of copper and 178 thousand pounds of molybdenum

- Q2 Adjusted EBITDA* of $17 million and net income of $22 million

- Increased copper production in H2 forecast to generate stronger cash flows

- Cash balance of $122.0 million and available liquidity of $197.0 million

Q2 Operational highlights

- Copper production "in line with plan"

- 31% increase in tons mined over previous quarter

- Production of 20 million pounds of copper and 180 thousand pounds of molybdenum

- Total operating costs (C1)* of US$3.14 / lb

- Mill throughput averaged 84,200 tons / day with copper recoveries at 63%

- Gibraltar’s newly refurbished SX/EW plant ramp complete and operating at a steady state

- Improved mining rates forecast to unlock higher grades in second half of year

- Advancing deeper into Connector Pit with much stronger second half forecast (higher grades + improved recoveries)

Florence Copper

- Advancing on track and within budget to achieve first copper production before end of 2025

- 90% project completion as of the end of June (US$239 million capital expenditure already sunk over past 18 months)

- Construction spending lower than prior quarter

- Capex set to decline in following quarters as construction activities cease

- Florence Copper has been 10 years in the making

- Florence Copper forecast to generate strong cashflows in 2026 as it ramps up to design capacity

Maiden Dividend

Very encouraging they've announced a maiden dividend with the aim of making quarterly dividend payments subject to earnings.

"I am pleased to announce the declaration of a dividend and the aim to establish a steady and regular return to shareholders. Reflecting the uneven nature of the group's revenues, we plan to calculate and, subject to the Group's cash requirements, pay dividends on a quarterly basis going forward."

Dividend declaration

An interim dividend of 0.0878 pence per share will be paid to shareholders on 29 August 2025.

Ex-dividend date: 14 August 2025

Record date: 15 August 2025

"It is the intention of the board to assess the distribution of dividends on a quarterly basis going forward."

Fantastic turnaround on the last quarter although somewhat expected with cash on the balance sheet jumping by more than 50% to £6 million! Much of that was expected as they had a build up inventory through last quarter and payments of large creditors in the first week of Q4.

- Second best quarterly operational performance for FY2025

- Combined operating profit: £1.67 million and PBIT: £766,000

- Ghana Q4 operating profit £1.05 million

- South African operation achieved its strongest operating profit performance for the financial year

- South Africa Q4 operating profit £618,000 and a PBIT of £602,000

Https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/copper-price-decline-2025-tariff-impact/

Agreed a minor correction in the trend last week alongside major falls across the commodity space, spare a thought for our copper weighted brothers and sisters!

The outlook for platinum is very different to most others primarily due to severe shortages in physical supply now. You can see from the chart below the increasing lease rates have reached a tipping point after surging beyond the normal 1-3% range up past 25% recently, which is basically unheard of and explains the sudden surge in platinum market pricing.

Moves in the lease rates indicated market tightness back in December which WPIC assign to "tariff risk fears" and platinum is now trading around 40% higher since then. "In principle, higher lease rates should disincentivise borrowing metal and incentivise the outright purchase of metal, thus supporting higher prices."

Platinum markets are expected to record a third successive year of deficits, almost 1 million ounces this year. Above ground stocks have been filling the gap over the past two years but WPIC reports these stocks have reduced by around 38%. Chinese buyers have taken note and begun accumulating a few months ago.

https://platinuminvestment.com/investment-research/perspectives/platinum-market-tightness-persists-despite-etf-and-exchange-stock-outflows?page=1&term=&category=

List of articles published monthly here

https://platinuminvestment.com/investment-research/perspectives

Interesting action behind the scenes, potentially two parties interested in taking Empresaria private although no firm bid as of yet.

62p all cash preferable to the 60p cash + loan notes arrangement (redeemable after 3 years!)

That's quite a jump since yesterday, up more than $500!

Appreciate your sharing the chart, very interesting to note how quickly the basket has risen in the space of a quarter.

Around $2,050/oz gross sounds about right :)

A better than expected quarterly update but for the cash position. The company state the cash position is "in line with expectations" and to be fair there are items there I hadn't accounted for including:

$3.6 million provided to the Thaba JV partner through capital loan taking the total lent to Limberg to around $20 million

$3.4 million in SA Income tax - I assumed would have been booked in Q1 after year end

$2.5 million Interim Dividend payment - my mistake assuming this had been booked in Q3

That goes some way to explaining the cash outflow along with:

$3.6 million capital spend on Thaba JV capital costs up on last quarter

$3.5 million 'stay in business and improvement capital' up on last quarter

$0.7 million admin costs up as you would expect with Thaba coming online

$0.2 million down payment of 'guarantee' to Eskom in addition to ongoing power costs

We do have the basket price increases booked but as yet not received due to the 8-10 week lag in receivables

"Cash inflows from the increased basket price in Q4 FY2025 will only be realised over Q1 FY2026, provided the basket price remains at the current level, due to the contractual quotational period between delivery and invoicing."

Overall results were better than expected! The headline from this being 'Sylvania annual production EXCEEDS twice revised guidance'

SDO achieved top end production of 21,114 4E (26,954 6E) PGM ounces, a 3% increase qoq taking annual production to a record annual 81,0024E (104,233 6E) PGM ounces

In terms of financials EBITDA jumped 98% qoq to $12.9 million (Q3 FY2025: $6.5 million) and this is expected to jump much higher in Q1 with Thaba JV online and the company receiving a much increased basket price!

Rhodium up a further 5% in the past two days to $6,350/oz

The average basket price peaked midweek but some consolidation is to be expected.

Sylvania's Q4 update due next Thursday will be a particularly strong one with the rising basket price beginning to take effect from late May and Thaba's Chrome and PGM operations coming online. Last quarter the company raised guidance for the second time in the financial year.

My expectations (note these are estimates) for Q4 2025 to June 30th are:

· Sylvania Dump Operations produced 21,000 4E PGM ounces (Q3 2025: 20,490 4E PGM ounces), heavier rainfall last quarter impacted Lesedi

· SDO produced around 79,000 4E PGM ounces for FY2025 in line with (twice) revised guidance

· SDO recorded $30 million net revenue for the Quarter (Q3 2025: $26.3 million)

· Group EBITDA of $8-10 million (Q3 2025: $6.5 million)

· Cash balance as at 30 June 2025 of $70-75 million (Q3 FY2025 $71.2 million) - slight increase now bulk of capital expenditure for Thaba had been sunk and assuming no further loan advancements to our JV partner Limberg who Sylvania have already lent the best part of $16 million to and which is accruing interest at 11% (repayments begin in 2027)

· Thaba Joint Venture project first chrome production began on schedule in May - we know this to be the case from the 7th May Moneyweb podcast first mine commissioning to crush ore had commenced and they were building up a stockpile ahead of chrome plants. First chrome production was anticipated to begin two weeks later , say, in the next two weeks, and then probably in the two to three weeks after the first PGM production.

· Thaba Joint Venture project first PGM production began on schedule in June - as mentioned in the podcast they were on track to commission in mid June; "two to three weeks after" (chrome production begin).

Outlook

· FY2026 production guidance of 84,000-88,000 4E PGM ounces total (including Thaba JV ) and 200,000t of 'metallurgical grade chromide' revenues to Sylvania (50/50 revenue split)

· Construction of the centralised PGM filtration plant at Lesedi on budget and on schedule for completion around November this year

· Lesedi ramp-up of new ROM plant to steady state production achieved in June - after heavier than normal rainfall during Q3 impacted production

· Dividend / buyback initiatives in FY 2026 due to increase pending review owing to higher basket of metal prices

Production during Q3 remained stable, cash position flat, there was one interesting development I thought, I’ll copy below but otherwise agree this was below expectations for the quarter.

· During Q2, a decision was made to send more material from South America to South Africa while we reduce stock levels in Ghana through new processing methods. Material which was received and processed in South Africa during Q3 will be exported in Q4.

· We continue to process trial batches of Platinum Group Metals ("PGM") to investigate the expansion of our capabilities and diversify the supply of material we can handle in South Africa, in line with our strategy to supplement gold recovery with PGM's.

The company hint at the initial shipments to South Africa, processing, sales and export take around 3 months - we shall see next quarter results. I’m looking for a tick up in South Africa numbers.

It’s interesting timing if they can capitalise on the recent PGM price increases. It would go against the recent trend of ‘jam tomorrow’ as has been the case in the past year here, market may be caught off guard if company does follow through!!

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts that above-ground platinum stocks will fall to just three months' worth of demand by the end of the current year.

This decline in available supply is largely due to a persistent platinum market deficit, now in its third year.

The WPIC's latest projections indicate a 2025 market deficit of 966 koz, with total supply expected to be the lowest in five years. This deficit is driving the depletion of above-ground stocks, which are expected to reach an "unsustainably low level" of around three months of demand. This scarcity is already impacting the market, with elevated lease rates indicating a tightening of supply.

https://platinuminvestment.com/files/873451/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q1_2025.pdf

Another bullish signal here today, the price of Rhodium is back to $6,000 which it climbed to in March during the initial breakout.

Rhodium trades at two year highs now.

Sylvania's basket is also benefitting from the price of Palladium up a further 2% today at $1,350/oz. This tops off a remarkable run over the past 30 days with the price having climbed almost 30% in that time!