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I would expect debt is reducing and will rapidly slide off in the second half with copper prices up more than 45% since the beginning of the year, $1 billion buyback notwithstanding.

SP Angel raises target to 333p as Demirli enters production

• The Company announced the start of commissioning and first production at the Demirli Copper/Molybdenum Mine in the Karabakh Economic Region, Azerbaijan.

• Production is expected to ramp up in the coming months.

• Demirli FY25 production guidance is for 4.0kt copper (in concentrate).

• The mine is guided to ramp up to ~15.0kt in FY26 onwards.

• The operation employs >200 people including 150 new full time hires, 50 employees relocated from the Company’s other operations with a number of contractors on site.

• Operations are linked to national power grid, water access secured, open pit operations feed the existing flotation plant, tailings are currently discharged into existing tailings facility. A full geotechnical programme has been completed for a new tailings dam location.

• The life of mine will be determined following development of the geological and resource model; the team highlights significant exploration potential in the existing mining area as well as satellite targets.

• The Company will release Group wide FY25 guidance in due course (previously, the Group targeted 28.0-33.0koz gold and 6.5-6.8kt copper excl Demirli, generating $110-125m Revenue and $45-55m EBITDA @$2,800/oz and $9,000/t)

Conclusion: Demirli commissioning represents a significant milestone for the Group and a major accomplishment for the team given access to the site was secured only last summer. Demirli is already set to make a meaningful contribution to FY25 production (4kt Cu or ~20% of our estimated FY25 output) before ramping up to ~15kt in FY26.

Demirli startup offers a series of value enhancing drivers including a multi asset status with a diversified production base, negligible development cost given brownfield nature of the asset and good access to infrastructure (development capex for a greenfield copper porphyry production facility (~15ktpa) would have likely been >$300m vs

- Construction of the commercial production facility was over 90% complete at the end of June

- The project remains on schedule for first production before year end

- Operating plan for the 2026 ramp up due to be finalised this quarter

Stuart McDonald, President & CEO of Taseko, commented, “The first 18 months of construction has gone exceptionally well, demonstrating the quality and experience of our on-site owner’s team and contractors. Construction activities are advancing on plan and project areas will soon start the transition to commissioning. A few notable milestones have recently been achieved. In the wellfield, all the injection and recovery wells planned for the construction phase have now been drilled and completed. Drilling will recommence after plant commissioning to expand the current wellfield and allow for copper production to ramp up to the full 85 million pound per year plant capacity. Also, last week, a key component of the site infrastructure was completed with APS (the local utility) energizing the site 69kV electrical substation.”

“Operational readiness remains a key focus for site management. Hiring full-time staff, training, and developing operational workflows are all ongoing to ensure our team is well-positioned for commercial operations in just a few months. A detailed operating plan for the 2026 ramp up is also being developed and will be finalized after acidification of the wellfield commences in the fall.”

“Florence Copper will be the next major U.S. supplier of domestically produced copper cathode. The potential for 50% tariffs on copper imports into the United States has driven the Comex copper price to record levels in recent weeks. It’s a great time to be bringing on a new U.S.-based copper mine, and a high Comex copper price premium would provide a further boost to Florence Copper’s already strong project economics,” concluded Mr. McDonald.

Interesting discussion over the weekend.

Those estimates for FY 25 and 26 are a little low though Velo, possibly you're using outdated Edison figures. There hasn't been an official updated forecast since platinum and palladium began to climb in late May. Platinum has risen 50% and palladium 43% in the past 2 months.

This will have a marginal impact on 2025 forecasts up to the end of June. FY 2026 is going to greatly benefit from the improved basket price along with higher group PGM production and chrome revenue from Thaba. At today's average SDO basket value and the chrome included we should be looking at FY 2026 earnings similar to 2022 of at least $50 million net profit.

Volatility may have dampened buyer interest here, given Rhodium prices surged and then fell more than 50% from peak in the space of around 7-8 months, one of the most extreme commodity swings I've seen in recent years ignoring the bizarre one day oil price collapse during the pandemic. The rising basket now is much more evenly spread with platinum most significant of all breaking out of a decade long channel. This could support a more stable price increase in the year ahead.

In terms of cash build or I should say 're-build' this is anticipated to happen rather quickly now mine build expenditure is behind us. Sylvania have a substantial cash position of around $75m at the end of 2025 (my estimate) and will also begin receiving loan repayments from the Thaba JV partner next year. All of this will fund higher dividends in the years ahead although yet to be confirmed and crucially cash generation will be more sustainable compared to the 2021 era.

With the fundamentals driving PGM prices higher I think it's a matter of when not if Sylvania Platinum's share price sets new all time highs.

Start of commissioning and first production from the Demirli copper mine ahead of schedule is a welcome surprise!

They are now going to ramp up until the end of this year and forecast Demirli will produce approximately 4,000 tonnes of copper during 2025. From 2026 onwards, production is expected to increase to approximately 15,000 tonnes of copper per annum.

The company's FY 2025 guidance is being revised upwards shortly and it should now forecast more than 10,000 tonnes copper production this year.

Factoring in rising commodity prices their forecast turnover should rise from $110 to 125 million to around $160 - 180 million this year with EBITDA margins around 50%

"There is significant potential for additional mineral resources at Demirli, with already known extensions to the current pit area, together with other nearby copper targets being identified for future evaluation"

Taking a snapshot from Q2 results and presenting them out of context is not particularly useful except as a demonstration of confirmation bias. I say that as both a holder of SRB and AAZ.

Anglo Asian produced 8,293 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) and generated almost $5 million sales after operating costs and CAPEX. Most of this, roughly $3.6m went towards the Demirli mine progressing towards production (Demirli is due to restart production in Q4) and which is a separate item of expenditure with a further $0.4m that went on servicing the outstanding $24 million debt.

Also of importance the Gilar mine commenced production in May and has been ramping up through June. This quarter will be the first full quarter of production at Gilar as it ramps up to quarterly production of 150-180k tonnes of ore at a higher grade than was reported in Q2.

Improving commodity prices are helping too with copper outperforming gold in recent months.

After this quarter is over they will have a reduced sustaining CAPEX requirement in the near term and have three producing assets compared to just one at the start of the year. Further out the company are keen to highlight they have two much larger copper assets expected to enter production transforming the company over the next 3-4 years.

Let's keep it real!

I think that most definitely includes long time lurkers Velo! Welcome back from your hiatus.

Hi rax, Valterra (code: VALT, MCap: £9.9bn) are the leading producer of platinum group metals in South Africa. Well positioned to ride the wave right now as are Tharisa although capital spend on Karo is a minor detractor right now.

Sylvania have been a poor choice for the past few years up until last quarter. New mine commissioning last quarter coinciding with the rising PGM prices is going to turn it's fortunes around in the second half.

The wider market is blissfully unaware of the developing picture here. There may only be a couple dozen people actively using the LSE forum who are tracking PGM price movements and who are aware of Sylvania Platinum.

That's another incredible run in the last 6 months, 70% higher back to 2021 record highs!

I agree it's a little extra slice of good news, good to read your posts here recently! Exciting time to be a holder, exposure to PGMs being limited to a handful of London listed stocks and the JSE heavyweights. Have you taken positions in VALT and SLP?

It's been a huge quarter for Sylvania as PGM prices (pt, pd & rh) continue to move higher

Sylvania's SDO basket price today

Platinum: $1,412 (64.6%) 912

Palladium: $1,250 (23.2%) 290

Rhodium: $5,750 (12%) 690

Gold: $3,330 (0.2%) 7

Gross 4e basket price: $1,900/oz

4e basket price net of fees: $1,748/oz

Last quarter the basket price was $1,428/oz so ignoring currency movements that's a 22% increase in the basket price over the Q3 average to this level.

AISC in Q3 2025 were $959/oz, operating margin of 32% before capital investment (Thaba) and other group costs. In Q4 the AISC will have been similar, operating margins closer to 40% based on an estimated 4e average basket of $1,570/oz and most importantly there will be much reduced capital investment & other group costs.

To the last point, the all-in cost on a per ounce basis was $1,273 in Q3 due to the Thaba JV and capital project expenditure, down from $1,432 in Q2. This measure of all groups costs will be down again in Q4.

Higher margins and lower all in costs which will have only just begun to take effect hence the lagging share price. I expect we will reach £1 per share this quarter and higher as the company begins to report the additional revenue from Thaba JV production which entered initial commissioning in May I believe.

GLA

ERRATUM: PRODUCTION REPORT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER FY2025 ENDED 30 JUNE 2025

On 9 July 2025, Tharisa the mining, metals, and innovation company dual-listed on the Johannesburg and London stock exchanges, announced its production results for Q3 FY2025 and cash balance at 30 June 2025.

The Company inadvertently understated its cash balance as it did not account for cash held on deposit with a financial institution. The correct number for cash on hand is US$164.6 million (9 July 2025 announcement reported as US$150.9 million) with debt remaining as reported at US$121.5 million, resulting in a net cash position of US$43.1 million (9 July 2025 announcement reported as US$29.4 million).

All other information disclosed in the production results for Q3 FY2025 remains unchanged.

That's fair enough, still holding onto some then :)

Metals Exploration has outperformed in recent months, Serabi has been the weakest of the four UK listed small cap gold producers in my pf

The 2026 P/E forecast (year beginning July 1st) is 6.6 according to Edison's latest 2025 estimates and were formulated in March / April. ie before platinum and palladium prices moved significantly higher.

PGM prices have rallied week after week (platinum +50% and palladium +35%).

In terms of P/E comparisons, SLP have around 30% of share price value equivalent in cash on the balance sheet (Q3: $71m cash) and cash burn during the past couple of years owing to Thaba JV capital spend is about to reverse with new cashflows and only sustaining capex from here on out.

Personally I would discount Sylvania's roughly $75m cash at the end of Q4 to get a more accurate read on the value earnings will drive going forward. The last quarter will have caught the tailwind of the recent PGM surge which could mean slightly higher FY 2025 profit of $20 million (P/E 7.5x discounting cash).

For the year ahead Edison suggest $34.8 million PBIT which is based on a much lower basket than we are currently trading at, it will be closer to $45-50 million I suspect.

Discounting cash on the balance sheet the 2026 forecast P/E today is around 3. If the share price remains at 65p for argument's sake the P/E discounting cash reduces further as Sylvania will be adding cash to the balance sheet each and every quarter moving forward (subject to changes in dividends, buybacks and tax payments).

Fortunate timing there pedro, are you still holding THX and MTL?

Easy money with PGM prices on the move! Platinum testing year highs again, up 56% year to date!

Palladium up 32% also back to 2025 highs and Rhodium almost back to highs

"markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

Highest basket price of the year today!

Platinum: $1,435

Palladium: $1,202

Rhodium: $5,700

Gold: $3,328

Interesting write up with the spotlight on platinum's 54% rise year to date

'The key drivers that have propelled metals higher in recent years remain intact, and additional tailwinds could emerge in the second half. Most notably, the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates could reignite demand, especially for metal-backed ETFs by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals, compared to short-dated government bonds.'

To understand gold’s enduring appeal—and by extension, that of silver and platinum—it’s important to recognise what sets these metals apart. Precious metals are politically neutral, unlike sovereign bonds or fiat currencies. They are universally recognised as a store of value, not tied to the creditworthiness of any nation, which is why central banks are increasingly allocating to gold as a core reserve asset.'

Condensing the article to the analysis of platinum:

'Platinum has emerged as the top-performing major commodity in 2025, with year-to-date gains of 54%, most of which have occurred since May. The rally was sparked by a technical breakout above USD 1,025, surpassing a long-term descending trendline stretching back to the 2008 peak near USD 2,300.

Once priced on par with gold, platinum has long been considered undervalued. The gold–platinum ratio, which hit a record high of 3.6-to-1 in April, has since narrowed to around 2.4-to-1, reflecting renewed investor interest.

Beyond the technical breakout and associated short-covering and momentum buying, fundamentals have also turned more supportive. The World Platinum Investment Council projects a third consecutive annual deficit, with demand expected to exceed supply by nearly one million troy ounces in 2025. As with silver, this imbalance is drawing down above-ground inventories.

Key demand drivers include a recovery in automotive demand—particularly in hybrid and diesel vehicles—as well as a notable uptick in Chinese jewellery and bar investment, encouraged by platinum’s relative price stability and discount to gold.

That said, investor appetite via platinum-backed ETFs remains subdued, with total holdings recently falling to a nine-month low—suggesting that while some are locking in profits, a broader speculative wave may still lie ahead should fundamentals tighten further. Having gained almost 40% in a matter of weeks since breaking the 17-year downtrend, platinum has for now found strong resistance around USD 1,427, the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2020 drop.'

https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/gold-silver-platinum-take-a-timeout-after-strong-first-half-08072025

All the way Sylvania's basket price is ticking up - Rhodium has added $175 this week and Palladium back to year highs around $1,140.