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Karo was expected to be more profitable at the time Tharisa were conducting their research. The PGM market has since underperformed relative to gold and silver and the wider metals sector. Assuming this is cyclical and prices are at their lowest then this is arguably a good time to pick up discounted shares in Tharisa, especially since ongoing Chrome production is benefitting from the near 50% increase in prices since February!

The Future Market Outlook segment on page 203 is worth reflecting on.

- Key Growth Drivers

Key drivers of increased demand for PGMs are:

• Hydrogen Economy: The adoption of hydrogen-based technologies could increase platinum demand by 10 - 15% annually by 2030 (International Energy Agency, 2024).

• Emission Standards: Stricter regulations, such as Euro 7 standards in the EU, will sustain demand for palladium and rhodium in automotive applications (European Commission, 2024).

• Emerging Markets: Urbanisation in Asia and Africa will drive industrial applications of PGMs (Fitch Solutions, 2024).

- Supply Challenges

Operational inefficiencies and ageing mines in South Africa, coupled with geopolitical risks in Russia, pose ongoing supply constraints. Recycling is expected to grow but may not fully offset primary supply limitations (Johnson Matthey, 2023).

- Price Forecasts

Forecasts suggest modest price increases for platinum and palladium, with rhodium likely remaining volatile. Platinum is projected to average USD1,100/oz by 2027, driven by its increasing role in hydrogen energy applications (World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, 2024).

- Risk Analysis

Key Risks to consider that could have a negative impact on the prices of PGMs are:

• Geopolitical Risks: Disruptions in South African and Russian production due to political instability remain a significant risk (S&P Global, 2024).

• Economic Factors: A global recession could dampen industrial and automotive demand, pressuring prices (World Economic Forum, 2024).

• Technological Substitution: Research into alternative materials for catalytic converters or green energy technologies could reduce PGM dependency (MIT Technology Review, 2024).

- Conclusion

The PGM market remains robust, with strong demand drivers in the automotive and green energy sectors. However, supply-side constraints and price volatility underscore the need for strategic resource planning.

Q1 gold production came in at around a quarter of annual forecast production vs around 8% for copper which suggest a decent uplift in copper production later this year. Commentary from Vaziri points to rising copper production in H2 2025. So the company is somewhat shielded from a pullback in the gold price, almost half way through Q2 and with the gold price still trading around 10% above the average Q1 price ( $2,843/oz).

The US China tariff agreement today may be the turning point for improvements to economic growth forecasts and that will almost certainly lead to higher copper prices later this year. Already oil prices are reacting and as with macro wide catalysts in the past copper normally follows.

In terms of the copper gold weighting using company guidance production and commodity price sales forecasts copper production is expected to make up around 45% of turnover in the remaining 9 months of this year:

9 month Gold production 22,000 to 27,000 at $2,800/oz = mid point $67m

9 month Copper production 6,000 to 6,300 tonnes at $9,000/t = mid point $55m

Exactly right, all that is required of us is patience.

With the price of gold though $3,400/oz today and pressure likely to build towards $3,500/oz in the coming weeks this is a buy and hold. Not nearly as volatile as some of the others (HOC for one) but still offering attractive returns on a short term timescale. Should easily double in the year ahead with analysts expecting gold to push on towards $4,000/oz by year end.

Just to add appreciate the posts last week Mulder, Mike1959, Nostra. It's good to see how others are coming by their forecasts and much the value on offer has improved in the past half year, taking for example Edison's former gold price figures.

UBS have never been one of our cornerstone investors, rather their holdings reflect shifts in their trading using leveraged financial instruments, specifically 'swaps on basket'.

https://www.adriaticmetals.com/investors/share-capital/

In fact upon further reading this evening, of the $6 million reduction in cash position to $71 million there was $2.2 million ring-fenced for future capital spend along with the $2.9 million highlighted earlier being a loan advancement to the JV partner.

For the quarter SDO operational cashflow sustained all group operational activities including the ongoing Thaba capital costs and recruitment campaign but for about a million quid!

Production guidance increased for the second time this year.

"The Company's FY2025 production guidance range has been further increased, from 75,000 - 78,000 4E PGM ounces to 78,000 - 80,000 PGM ounces on the back of solid Q3 FY2025 production. The Company previously upgraded guidance at interim results from 73,000 - 76,000 4E PGM ounces."

Thaba JV is on schedule for first production of chrome in May and PGM production in June. Fully commissioned by end of June.

Cash depletion of $6 million with around half being a loan advancement to the JV partner. Capital expenditure much reduced on last quarter as Thaba JV nears first production.

"The Board announces a new shareholder return policy, where Serabi will target a return of up to 20% - 30% of the Group’s free cash flow to shareholders through dividends or buy-backs." This being net cash generated from operating activities less sustaining CAPEX.

During 2024 cash generated from operations and after capitalised mine development expenditure was $22.6 million (2023: $7.7 million) on roughly 37,500 oz production. Average gold price $2,400/oz vs AISC of $1,700/oz

This year I would expect cash generated to be around $55-60 million based on median guidance of 44,000 - 47,000 oz and an average gold price $3,200/oz vs AISC of $1,850/oz

It would suggest an equivalent yield of 8% at 150p possible as Mhaines06 suggests. Whether this comes in the form of dividends, buybacks or a combination remains to be seen.

The intention to take Serabi to 60,000 ounces in 2026 means we would be generating around $70-80 million free cash at similar margins next year (more than 40% of the market cap today) and excluding current cash on the balance sheet plus cash between now and then.

Ambition to transform Serabi into a +100,000 ounce producer but will the company be around that much longer? With the value on offer at today's price it wouldn't surprise me if they are taken private.

Analyst consensus released today suggests

- 2025 revenue forecast has been increased to $1.94bn (up from $1.82bn)

- EPS estimate increased 34% to $2.42 per share (up from $1.81)

- Net income forecast to grow 350% next year vs 41% UK O&G sector growth forecast

I think 17p EPS forecasts likely include all project earnings so Thaba + SDO earnings but definitely achievable and based on lower chrome prices ($260/t). At current prices I believe Thaba JV will add around 7-8p to EPS.

I agree "full margin" in this context likely refers to Sylvania's split of the annual chromite production which is half of the anticipated 420,000 tons forecast. The latest guidance on Sylvania's share of Thaba JV cash costs are $25m per annum which works out at roughly $120/t which is low compared to the current chrome price of $300/t.

Also to factor in Sylvania have lent $15.7m to Limberg, the JV partner, which is accruing interest at 11% and will only begin to be repaid from 2027 so depending on how you view the gains on loan interest there is an additional $2m earnings directly attribute to Thaba JV in 2027 falling in subsequent years, ignoring sizeable loan capital repayments that will replenish the balance sheet.

The pullback feels majorly overdone considering the price of gold relative to where we were only a few weeks ago. Trump and his pivoting makes headlines again, gold dips and equity shareholders sell down from recent share price highs. Overdone for sure and once the dust settles like it did a few days after the US announcement of global tariffs the gold price will rise further.

Just today JP Morgan has said it expects gold to hit $4,000/oz by Q2 2026 as US recession fears grow.

Strong buying opportunity across most of the gold sector with shares in all major producers down. Pan African for example is back to where it was 3 weeks ago when the gold price traded around $200/oz lower than it is today.

Trump has pivoted once again and the market is overreacting as it tries to make sense of it. US economic sentiment will remain low and I doubt the USD will suddenly regain favour. The damage is done and it will take years to reverse the effects of the past few weeks..

And still cheap with gold above $3,320 now!

Gold futures have gone bonanza $3,345/oz at time of writing! That's 3.2% higher on the day breaking out to new all time highs and still we are sub 50p

Keep cool and carry on :)

We've just seen the year lows I think, those still wanting to buy CAML at a lower price before it goes ex-dividend will need to work harder.

Central Asia Metals paid out 18p in dividends last year and it's cash position ended the year at highs of $67.6 million (vs $57.2 million a year earlier).

The copper price today is around 15-20% higher than it was throughout much of 2024. Zinc and lead prices are trading below what they averaged in 2024 this past fortnight but this may turn out to be a blip if global economic sentiment (currently on the floor) picks back up again.

Sylvania are about to benefit from the rising chrome price via the Thaba Joint Venture.

It doesn't appear to be hot topic at the moment but bear in mind the price of South African chrome ore has risen some 50% in the past two months, with prices this week above $300/t it's really fortunate timing!

Performing better than gold, silver, other precious metals this is probably the fasting rising commodity so far this year, certainly over the past two months.

Thaba is due to commence production by May and will be adding a "full margin chrome concentrate revenue stream" of more than 200,000 tons per annum in addition to extra PGM ounces. The addition of low cost chrome concentrate production at a time when prices are rising at the current rate is more positive news and will certainly ease concerns over the lacklustre performance of palladium and platinum this year.

"Commissioning of the Thaba JV which will process PGM and chrome ores from historic tailings dumps and current arisings from the Limberg Chrome Mine is on schedule and will add attributable production of approximately 6,800 4E PGM ounces and introduce 210,000 tons of chrome concentrate to Sylvania's existing annual production profile."

PAF, FRES, HOC, GGP, ADT1 - majors and mid cap primary gold & silver producers

THX, SRB, MTL, ALTN, GDP, - small cap primary gold & silver producers

AAZ - small cap with gold & silver exposure (mostly copper)

GPM, BRWM - funds with PM exposure

Would not touch Resolute now after what's been happening in country.

No posts for two weeks? This has been a fairly safe place to park cash and was my optimum choice while markets were bleeding! Somewhat surprised it's even been outperforming Blackrock's BRWM fund of late. Exposure to precious metal producers being the ace. There's not a lot else out there UK listed, good for weathering the storm and now gaining on record gold price highs today along with a wider market boost in sentiment. Looking good for the foreseeable!

Glen are well positioned to deleverage a significant chunk of that debt in the next 24 months.

It's continued well this week, better than most of us had hoped! Trump walking back tariffs for all bar China opened up a nice opportunity for buyers. It would not be inconceivable those in the know and close to the administration are orchestrating or engineering these sudden shifts for the very purpose of making easy money.