Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Sentiment has been shot to pieces across the sectors. My holdings in Pan African, Tharisa, Taseko, Wheaton, Endeavour and my favourite tiddler Goldplat should all be moving up under normal conditions following recent gains in commodity prices. Others like Fresnillo and Centamin are doing a little better but nothing special
Fortune favours the brave! :)
With the capital raise all but complete, the balance sheet significantly improved and operations to possibly exceed guidance in Q4 this is the time to buy Resolute Mining. The turnaround in Dollar sentiment coinciding with these changes adds further weight. Shorts shot up prior to the raise but are beginning to reduce now.
With GDP disposing of their (entire?) holding in GCAT recently I was curious to know if any holders here have bought in for exposure? Good update today with further derisking of the stated growth potential and goal to expand production to 24koz.
An update confirming the new loan with Coris Bank International is due in the next month and hopefully they comment on the operational changes and whether it has stabilised production in recent weeks. Hopefully these will be long term fixes and stop the haemorrhaging of cash by the beginning of next quarter.
Komana East deposit was historically the highest grade and best performing source of ore so there is potential for a much improved quarter, assuming the operational changes onsite are running smoothly.
A good level to enter / average down with possible 20-25 gain in the next month or two assuming they achieve upper end revised guidance and with the gold prices trading at $1750/oz. The company's valuation is ridiculous but then this rightly reflects it's 2022 performance.
Ariana Resources upgrades Tavsan mine’s gold and silver resources
Ariana Resources PLC (AIM:AAU) has unveiled a 22% increase in resources at the Tavsan Mine in Turkey, where construction work is ongoing and a further upgrade is anticipated in 2023.
The company's managing director Dr Kerim Sener described the new resource as “a tremendous enhancement” for the project.
In a statement, Ariana announced a new global resource of 6.6mln tonnes at a grade of 1.44 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and 5.26 g/t silver, to give a total of 307,000 ounces and 1.1mln ounces of contained gold and silver respectively.
It also highlighted a ‘high-grade domain’ within that resource comprising 1.1mln tonnes at 2.74 g/t gold and 4.89 g/t silver, representing 96,000 ounces of gold and 171,000 ounces of silver. This part of the project is now defined in resources for the first time.
Ariana also said it estimates some 34,000 ounces of gold in lower-grade material which it does not currently classify as a resource.
Drilling is underway on exploration targets, a programme of some 4,600 metres, at the same time as construction work continues and Ariana noted that the Tavsan resource is “not closed off in several areas”.
Some 83% of the project’s current resource now sits within measured and indicated resource categories.
"This mineral resource estimate represents a tremendous enhancement for Tavsan, as construction continues on site,” Sener said in the statement. “Not only has the total resource grown to c.7mlnt tonnes but about 1mln tonnes of this is now attributed to a newly defined high-grade domain containing sufficient resources to potentially satisfy up to three years of gold output in its own right.
“This is all the more impressive considering that the 2016 Scoping Study had only considered a total mine life of four years from the entire resource. Current planning is consequently focusing on a mine life of eight years.”
Sener added: "When we acquired the project in 2008, we did so with the expectation that the resource could grow to this scale. Now that we have achieved this significant milestone, and after having completed additional work, we see that there is further room for growing the resource.”
The Ariana managing director told investors that the resource estimate will be updated again in 2023 following the current drill programme, meanwhile, today’s new estimate will be used to advance financial models and mine optimisations whilst the company works to complete its definitive feasibility study.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/999666/ariana-resources-upgrades-tavsan-mine-s--and-silver-resources-999666.html
I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. Covid cases are set to climb to 100,000 daily next month and given how risk averse the National Health Commision has been they will probably introduce new lockdown measures over the winter.
On the bright side a recent report by Heraeus Precious Metals detailed the 2022 platinum supply deficit from South Africa is expected to be about 15% lower year-on-year, about 6.95 million troy ounces, largely due to supply chain and operations issues. The likes of Sibanye-Stillwater which is one of the largest platinum miners having ongoing disruptions with labour and electricity shortages have also contributed.
Platinum prices should remain supported at a time of weakening demand fundamentals for palladium and rhodium owing to uncertainty with the Chinese economy. If there is a reopening next Spring the auto industry metals will move higher but for now at least it's a waiting game..
Today's update wasn't due until January according to the update 7th November but it's very welcome news!
It's worth re-reading the past 2-3 West Kenya updates again along with today's news for a better understanding of the scope of this asset and recent exploratory successes.
West Kenya Project already has resources of 1.6 million ounces (incl 378k oz Indicated).
Phase 2 drilling programme aimed at conversion of the Inferred resources to Indicated at Isulu-Bushiangala and at Ramula all but complete. Isulu and Bushiangala infill drilling revealed near surface, bonanza-grade gold intercepts of 721 g/t, 210 g/t and 172 g/t. The current mineral resource estimate (as of March 2022) across these two locations stands at 1.12 Moz grading 10.80 g/t Au of which 378,000 grading 11.70 g/t is in the Indicated category. The CEO has already confirmed it will be a "significant conversion of the Inferred resources to Indicated ounces" and we will find out exactly how much before year end.
Today is the first time I believe Eric has referred to Ramula Camp as a potential "+1.5 million ounce gold camp within West Kenya".
We will likely hear more about Anomaly 22, the Miruka system, and Ochiegue (within 5 km radius from Ramula) in the new year as Shanta aggressively pursue their goal of a high grade, multi-million ounce resource at West Kenya.
Looks positive here going into 2023 and beyond. 10% dividend supported by better than expected results and profits forecast to be up despite a small fall in revenue.
Smiths News: Better FY22 than expected; 10% dividend yield
Smiths News’ FY22 results were strong, with revenue and profit ahead of market expectations. Continuing adjusted PBT increased by 0.6% to £31.1m as financing costs reduced and net debt fell to £14.2m. Management was successful in mitigating inflation and controlling costs within budget. FY23 has started well, with uplifts in one-shot revenues and ancillary income. However, we have upgraded our forecasts, and an increase in the discount rate has driven a decrease in our DCF valuation from 94p to 89p. Smiths News trades on an FY23e P/E of 3.8x with a 10% yield, which we believe is attractive for a company with such cash-generative characteristics.
Confidence at this level. Might they announce another end of year share buyback shortly like they did last year..
First time i can recall the company mentioning a figure and a preliminary date for Zafar although there has been talk of ramping up production previously so this is welcome news.
Zafar entering production in H223 is the first step towards becoming a 100,000oz per annum producer.
As my fellow holder below mentions it would be more reassuring if we also learnt the true costs in the near term and whether our 8-9% dividend will remain safe
Unless you feel like the Half Year results due in 4 weeks will be disappointing I wouldn't be selling today. The outlook for 2023 should be extremely positive with forecast increases of production, improving cost control and reducing capital expenditure on equipment.
boobooberbear gets it! ;)
The amount of uncertainty that has prevailed both in the macro environment (pandemic, inflation, wild currency swings, market performance, global recession etc) and more specifically with Shanta (poor H1 production, new debt facility, takeover interest) plays a much greater role than simply gold price movements and exploration updates.
Today's update is very significant not least because it signals to big players that West Kenya project will garner even greater interest from outside parties.
Near surface "bonanza-grade gold intercepts at Isulu including grades of 721 g/t, 210 g/t, 172 g/t, and 93 g/t"
Going back to the original point I was attempting to make uncertainty is set to reduce here from March 2023. Questions by some here over liquidity and cash-flow will disappear. The net debt will turn cash positive and there is the potential for selective capital investment at the two producing mines to grow the expected 100koz gold production in future years.
If Shanta can agree JV terms on the West Kenya project with a major solely at a project level similar to how Ariana have handled their maiden mine then it would make much faster inroads to not only developing the project but increasing the market value here, removing any uncertainty over funding and future direction. That would be my ideal 6-12 month hope. Any takeover approaches will hopefully continue to be batted away by our Board.
Currently the Seaborne thermal prices are retreating with coal from South Africa’s Richards Bay dropping to $169.44 a tonne on Nov 9, down 56% from its all-time high of $385.94 on Aug 22.
Coal for delivery to northwest Europe ended at $177.29 a tonne on Nov 9, a decline of 58% from its peak of $424.97 on June 23.
Pleasantly surprised by the strong bounce back. Low 60s oversold level back to a more reasonable 94 pence. As others have voiced here already it is frustrating to not know capital spending plans in the coming year. The market seems to be turning a blind eye to weak production and focusing on the scale of Anglo’s new concessions. Strong market interest suggests a whiff of JV partnership line up. We could use the extra pairs of hands!
No cheap takeover is the best outcome for all genuine long term shareholders.
Yes it would have been better if the negotiating period had been extended, simply to keep interest stoked and keep volumes high. Will it make any difference in 6 months time when Shanta are due to stop spending $7-8m worth of NL mine cash flow on Singida mine development each quarter?
Likely the only people that would have benefited from a hostile takeover would be the day traders and those new to this journey. With gold trading north of $1750/oz there is every reason to be buying at 10p for the inevitable rerate coming in the not too distant future.
Even better for those buying in the low 30s but still decent value
According to the presentation the retail offer is only available for holders in New Zealand and Australia
Not great for existing shareholders but short term price weakness means Resolute will move into a net cash position during H2 2023.
Indeed it could well be the beginning of a PGM rally and a period of Dollar weakness into the new year. That would help breath life back into the sector.
Time to speculate with these beat up small-caps.
Experienced investors here will give others time, help and the benefit of the doubt most of the time when someone has a genuine question however when people come onto an investment board and talk down a stock while not knowing the first thing about basic company reporting terms you are bound to face some backlash.
And no they have not essentially drawn $151m.. they have drawn down on approx $320m! That is their total debt position. They have cash of approx $169m.. the difference is known as the net cash or net debt position. HOC have a net debt position of $151m and it is set to climb much higher next year.