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Investor Meets presentation coming on Monday 31st March, can register here to watch online

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/interim-results-investor-presentation-26

Reading through results I am not convinced the market fully understands the significance of the operational shift taking place in Ghana. Yes headline figures are down comparatively which may be the source of some uncertainty but it may be unfamiliarity with Goldplat's situation also the reason why the company message is just not getting through.

Either way I am hoping the presentation this week focuses on the significance of Goldplat's role and increasing focus as sole gold by‑product beneficiation provider in country and their drive to reduce inventory levels during the transition.

Of minor note they repaid all long term borrowings in the past six months, a milestone worth highlighting even if it was forecast, as the company free up future cash-flow for faster growth initiatives.

* acquiring sizeable shareholdings

These days I am highly sceptical of market machinations, when large holders are flipping positions and acquiring sizeable shareholders it is normally for one purpose.

Last year Shanta Gold was on the cusp of major rerate before an offer came in which then caused havoc. Weak hands cashed in passing their shares along to whoever was sweeping up behind the scenes. It turned out there had been arrangements in place by a number of smaller groups, I suspect separate in name only, to agree to the initial offer meaning the combined sum almost saw the deal go ahead. The initial offer rejected and an increased second offer only saw increased institutional buying to get the sale over the line and in the end ordinary investors could do nothing. Shares went for about 15p I recall and would easily have doubled over the past year, probably a lot more given the company had repaid all it's debts and the gold price is 40% higher. The PIC would be ideally placed to take full ownership of a highly profitable South African mid cap gold producer that is arguably very much undervalued at this junction given it's forecast 2025 revenues. I hope that this is not the case but I've been invested long enough to see the quality UK listed gold producers bought out one by one over recent years; RRL, HGM, TSG, SHG, CEY and I would suggest PAF are mostly likely to be next

The Public Investment Corporation snapped up another 30 million shares over the past week increasing their holding to 281 million (13.88%). The remaining shares appear to be in the hands of other holders however they may be connected to the PIC in some manner. They do appear to be positioning for a hostile takeover and what timing!

50p per share offer incoming?

Momentum building here once again

Kounrad is forecast to be producing copper for another 8-9 years so I am not sure where this belief comes from. Just comparing 2024 copper production of 13,439 tonnes to 13,816 tonnes in the previous year, it's a 2.7% decline with no effect on margin (73%) and more than compensated by the rise in copper, up 9% to $9,219/tonne on the 2023 average. Kounrad's 2024 EBITDA was higher at $88.8 million (2023: $82.3 million).

This year Kounrad is expected to produce 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes of copper similar to the last and prices are again up 8% in the first three months of the year compared to 2024 average. If they remain at these elevated prices the increase over the year will of course be higher.

Just to reiterate the remaining life of operations at Kounrad is to 2034

Good to see the company achieve both Q1 objectives laid out at the time of the FY 2024 Production and Operations Review in January on time and without fuss:

1) Updated production guidance for the full year 2025 during Q1 2025

2) Development of the new Gilar underground mine: first ore expected to be extracted in Q1 2025

Company indicate a rough timeline for achieving the planned monthly 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes ore production target over the next few months and I would envisage if there are no hiccups along the way that by middle of July we may receive confirmation of this.

This update was always going to be received poorly, irrespective of the drill results and scope for further resource expansion. The already delayed Douta PFS was expected this quarter. The lack of discipline adhering to their own previously worded statements and meeting these deadlines casts doubt on the decision making behind the scenes. We as shareholders can only interpret what we see and this is a poor example of handling shareholder expectations. Hopefully the board is aware and their strategy is to get the 'bad news' out of the way first given the Segilola financials aught to eclipse any disappointment felt today. Douta PFS moves to the second half of this year then (if they manage to release it in Q2 that's a bonus but looks to me like they are in no hurry to release it)

News flow with catalysts reminder

1) Segilola Drill Results expected Q2 2025

2) Q1 2025 Operating Update due third week of April

3) FY 2024 Results due end of April with details on possible dividend / buyback scheme

4) Q1 2025 Financial Results due late May

Additional company confirmed announcements (date TBC)

- Nigeria Lithium Drill Results and updated economic resource

- Segilola underground drill program

- Douta and Douta West licences drill program

- Douta PFS and MRE (H2 2025)

- Douta accelerated studies for investment (post-PFS release)

- Cote d’Ivoire drill results H2 2025 at Krakouadiokro and Gbaloukrou (5,000 metres budgeted)

- Cote d’Ivoire Maiden resource target of 500,000 - 1,000,000 ounces by end of 2025

So it has! Well that's a shame considering the considerable time and sums on the project.

Copper Bay is still listed as a dormant investment in it's latest FY Results but no significant updates since pre-Covid. Doubt they have an in country presence there at the moment but if they did blow away the cobwebs then the 2017 DFS would need a refresh. The NPV is based on a copper price of $3/lb

Sylvania's basket has bounced again as the price of rhodium rebounds back up to $5,875.00

That should say: considering the share price is around 25% HIGHER 4 months on from the deal.

Delving into the relationship between the company and Tembo Capital it is linked by the recent all share acquisition of TCMG by Pan African.

This was completed via a Share Acquisition Agreement with Tembo receiving shares in the company last December. Between an agreed lock-in and arranging a buyer they have done well considering the share price is around 25% less than 4 months on!

Details of the transaction including related parties Tembo Capital Holdings UK Limited, Transasia Private Capital Security Agent Ltd, Catalpa Management Proprietary Limited and Tennant Resources Proprietary Limited (together the `Sellers')

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/prn/pan-african-resources--paf/pan-african-acquires-tennant-consolidated-min-/8530489

25% to regain the £2 tag we aught to be trading at anyway, feels more than justified with copper prices moving beyond $5/lb.

2025 is set to be a record demand year for copper with China taking fiscal action to boost consumption with extra stimulus and the likelihood of Trump imposing tariffs on copper imports (50% of US supply) as base metal tariffs on Canada come into effect.

Copper is already one of the top performing commodities of the past 12 months.

The spotlight is on Central Asia Metals board now to deliver a solid set of results and provide markets with an upbeat outlook given the macroeconomic picture.

Interesting timing, shareholder Tembo Capital plan to sell their entire 58.8m holding to institutional investors by means of an accelerated bookbuild.

I'm speculating here but we know South African heavy weight Public Investment Corporation have been buying up Pan African shares over the past year with their position having risen to more than 250 million shares (12.4%). If their intention is to take Pan African private then I expect they will be interested to take around 2.5% of shares off the market. Tempo may well have been acting under instruction or the pretext of this scenario as there have been recent examples of companies taking up positions in the months prior to a bid.

Pan African shares have caught a bid in the past fortnight jumping almost 20% and it does make me wonder if there are institutions like Tempo that have been or still are positioning themselves for a takeover announcement. Last year Centamin and Shanta Gold were essentially forced by institutional investors to accept offers that have since proven to be far below fair value.

I hope I'm wrong as the company is perfectly poised for major gains with gold futures setting another all time high today of $3,047.40

Some interesting points (too many for one post!)

We have reduced our valuation for Sylvania by 6.8% to 99.6p/share on the back of our model recalibration. These valuations are based on our revised PGM forecasts included in our 3 February 2025 report. The recent strength in chrome and rhodium prices has not been considered in the current forecasts and valuation, and may present upside potential if sustained at these levels.

The investment case for Sylvania Platinum has expanded over recent years from its low-risk dump re-treatment operation (SDO) to include its Thaba JV operation, which is set to become material in coming periods, and increasingly, its exploration assets, where the company has concluded various studies in recent years. Once the JV starts production in H225, the company is set to benefit from a healthy increase in revenues and attractive diversification of its revenue stream to include chrome. The impact of the JV is set to be material from FY26, contributing a quarter of combined revenue. The ramp-up of the JV, as well as meaningful investment in SDO projects, has resulted in a large capital expenditure (capex) drive since FY22 and meaningful JV cash costs are set to be incurred from FY26.

Sylvania is very sensitive to PGM prices, especially rhodium (which has risen in price by 15% since 25 February 2025 to $5,325/oz) and, increasingly, to chromite prices (which have risen by 30% since 8 February this year) as the JV comes into production.

www.edisongroup.com/research/strong-fy26-eps-lift-as-chromite-jv-kicks-in/BM-1273/

Nice update from Edison Research this afternoon beginning to filter out:

Strong FY26 EPS lift as chromite JV kicks in

Sylvania Platinum’s H125 results provided insightful disclosure around the Thaba joint venture (JV) accounting treatment and guidance on the outlook. We have taken the opportunity to recalibrate our modelling to allow for the meaningful pick-up in capital expenditure, the updated cost outlook and the treatment of Sylvania’s loan to the JV partner, Limberg Mining Company (Limberg). Considering the current uncertain global environment, we have increased the conservatism in our forecasts, which has resulted in a 6.8% lower valuation of 99.6p/share.

Balanced, I agree from what I have seen at the recent Annual Global Metals Mining & Critical Minerals Conference there is a general consensus that the sector has fallen behind relative to recent gains in commodity prices.

Thanks for sharing the link below! I'll leave this interview with Luc ten Have discussing the growing disconnect between majors that are benefitting now and whether the 'trickle-down effect' will lift the junior mining space.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPS_nSXP-4E

Disclosure: I am increasing positions in small caps: THX, ALTN, SRB, AAZ, MTL, SVML, GDP

That's good to know, I do appreciate the reply. In this environment of fast movers it can prove difficult to catch the next major move but I understand we all have different targets and timelines. Congratulations with your profit, we are all playing this game to make money. All the best with your endeavours.

News flow with catalysts reminder

1) Douta PFS and MRE due Q1 2025

2) Segilola Drill Results expected H1 2025 (I have this marked for Q2)

3) Q1 Operating Update due third week of April

4) FY 2024 Results to be released end of April with details on possible dividend / buyback scheme

5) Q1 Financial Results due late May

Additional company confirmed announcements (date TBC)

- Nigeria Lithium Drill Results and updated economic resource

- Segilola underground drill program

- Douta and Douta West licences drill program

- Douta accelerated studies for investment (post-PFS release)

- Cote d’Ivoire drill results H2 2025 at Krakouadiokro and Gbaloukrou (5,000 metres budgeted)

- Cote d’Ivoire Maiden resource target of 500,000 - 1,000,000 ounces by end of 2025