Member Info for the_shareminator

Rhodium demand strongest in almost two years.

The spot price is up to $4,925 marking a 20 month high!

Rhodium is so unloved now but it has been creeping up since putting in a bottom around $4,000 in 2023. The price is trading $150 higher since the start of the year at 6 month highs and given the hostile trading environment the US administration is engineering, resource protectionism and stockpiling should add support to prices. The balance of supply and demand in the Rhodium market could easily tip if panic buying returns as we saw from 2019-2021

Sounds like they've transferred their holding to another (group of) institutions. Either way there is nothing here as yet worth investing for.

Fourth Quarter and FY 2024 results released today

Quarterly highlights

- The Gibraltar mine achieved a new record for quarterly mill throughput, averaging 89,600 tons per day!

- Q4 Adjusted EBITDA* was CAD$56 million

- Gibraltar produced 28.6 million pounds of copper for the quarter with TCC of US$2.42 per pound of copper vs sales price of US$4.13

- Q4 copper sales at Gibraltar were 27.4 million pounds.

2024 Annual Highlights

- $243.6 million earnings with adjusted EBITDA* of $224.0 million

- Total operating costs for the year were US$2.66 / lb vs the average realized copper price of US$4.17 / lb

- The Gibraltar mine produced 105.6 million pounds of copper and 1.4 million pounds of molybdenum in

2024.

- Gibraltar sold 108.0 million pounds of copper for the year generating CAD$608.1 million revenue to Taseko

* Reminder that in 2022 EVR generated EBITDA of $5.2 bn (C$7.4 bn) with profit before tax of $4.2 bn (C$6.0 bn)

Glencore funded "$6.7 billion of net capex, the $7 billion acquisition of EVR and $1.9 billion of shareholder returns" whilst net debt only increased $6.3 billion. In the context of what EVR adds to the company this year and each year going forward they should be just fine. Included within the debt are $1.8 billion worth of non capital liabilities.

Marketing Adjusted EBIT of $3.2 billion, at the top end of our long-term $2.2-$3.2 billon guidance range, albeit 8% lower than 2023. A strong performance from Metals and Minerals was more than offset by the progressive normalisation of energy markets from the severe disruption and extreme volatilities seen in 2022/23

Industrial Adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 billion, down 20%, primarily driven by lower energy coal prices, partially offset by the addition of EVR's steelmaking coal business and higher y/y earnings in our zinc business, primarily via its exposure to higher gold prices.

Reminder that EVR generated EBITDA of $5.2 bn (C$7.4 bn) with profit before tax of $4.2 bn (C$6.0 bn).

Funds from operations (FFO) of $10.5 billion, up 11% with $3.7 billion net income attributable to equity holders pre-significant items.

Glencore will receive $1.0 billion in cash and 32.8 million Bunge shares (c.15%) in the coming months following the 2023 disposal of Viterra which is subject to complete shortly.

Glencore positioning it's combined coal and carbon steel materials business towards a demerger, once the group has sufficiently deleveraged (within 22 months), reducing net debt to c.US$5 billion in the stated timeframe.

ASX market responded well last night with the share price up 7.4%

As mentioned directors are participating in the equity raise, taking stock at a 4% discount to the prevailing share price, with the gap widening today as buyers return. The move to raise at this junction with sights on increasing production to 20moz AgEq within two years is being well received.

Control of cash is not so much an issue now and has been improving in recent quarters. Last year when cash reserves were falling and approaching the minimum reserves to be kept I believed they would go ahead and drawdown on the $25m loan facility Orion had in place. However the company allowed this to lapse, instead announcing a $25m concentrate prepayment arrangement with Trafigura. What could be viewed as a short term interest free loan repayable in product.

As at 30 November 2024, Adriatic held a cash balance of $23m which had reduced to $21m at 31 December 2024 of $21m. They were generating sales through this period however this is a much reduced monthly cash burn on the previous month and obviously going back further.

The $25m prepayment funds from Trafigura received in January boosted company coffers to $46m by the end of the month.

This would suggest that continuing costs and sales (excluding the prepayment) were roughly even during the first month of the year, not bad considering the additional cost pressures due to the weather events (torrential flooding + intense winter snows).

The first debt repayment of $19m to Orion pushed back to 31 March is a blessing as Adriatic are not yet generating the $19million quarterly cash build to cover these loan repayments alongside the costs of ramp up. However the picture is constantly changing, these figures can’t be viewed in a vacuum. The company projects they will reach commercial production this quarter (Q1) and achieve nameplate capacity by H2

Personally I am impressed by how quickly management have moved from a position of assessing studies for mine expansion to raising funds for it! Their previous update mentioned their intention to release an updated mine plan in the coming months and yet within a month I think they had already acquired enough interest to raise $50m (half going towards the plan to boost capacity from 0.8Mtpa to 1.3Mtpa. The imminent milestone of achieving commercial production in the next few weeks played a part in that I am sure.

Yes read that this morning. Came across as somewhat over cautious with mention of higher debt bringing an increase in unforeseen risk and a P/E of 6 for the current year dropping to below 4 in 2026.

Their Questor's portfolio is still exposed to Resolute in Mali which is an absolute basket case jurisdiction at this point in time and should be avoided at all costs in my view but each to their own. Pan African for me!

Hi raxfactor, interesting link I am listening at work, thank you for sharing! Will come back to you later this evening.

Quick thought in regards to Orion and the financing, with hindsight and looking back it appears their selling down into the market was probably a case of knowing Adriatic would come back to tap them at some point. Perhaps the door was left open and this is why the company have taken full advantage of market conditions to raise at today's price. Orion retain a major stake and have capitalised on share price gains over the past 7-8 months.

Raxfactor - they are fully funded to production of 12-13moz AgEq per annum this year. This equity raise for $50m is to increase future annual production to 20moz AgEq making it one of the largest primary silver producing mines in the world.

They mention half of the funds raised will accelerate the expansion target to 2027.

With regards the other $25m of funds being reserved for the ongoing ramp-up it sounds to me like additional reserves are needed in the short term to mitigate large movements in cashflows rather than necessarily cover anything specific. We already knew there would be little change to reported group cash reserves in the first two quarters due to costs of ongoing ramp up and revenue from sales going towards the initial loan repayments. Beyond the first half they expect cash reserves to begin to rise quarter on quarter.

They may well be an element of higher costs currently and uncertainty over when these will begin to fall in line with projected costs.

However I am of the view this is a shrewd financing initiative capitalising on recent strength in the share price, now 35% higher on the back of commodity price gains over the past 4-5 months and increased institutional investor interest. But the crucial point is the intention to fast-track production from 2025 levels of 12-13 million ounces silver equivalent by 60-65% in the space of 24 months.

Adding 7-8moz silver to annual production generates an additional $250 million revenue at today's prices.

The gap between the placing price and the market trading price is only 3.7% which is a sign of confidence in itself and has the support of at least one existing institutional investor and various company members.

Mention of FTSE Index listing to look forward to further down the line.

Looking at the basket price of AgEq of $32.5/oz (current prices of Ag, Au, Zn and Pb) and taking a middle of the road ballpark for 2025 guidance of 12.5 million equivalent ounces Adriatic Metals are on course to turn more than $400 million revenue (H2 weighted).

Yes better now than later in my view with the silver price back up to 4 month highs and likely to move through 12 year highs in the coming months. The company experienced a couple of hiccups last year which caused some delays with the ramp up, pushing back full commercial production by a quarter. The knock on effect being reduced 2025 guidance announced at the beginning of this year. However if you take the view that this is the 'bad news' now priced in and the company achieve their stated guidance confidence will return here.

Copper futures at a 9 month high now, gearing up for another test of all time highs ($5.20/lb)

NAV is starting to pulling away, market has a bit of catch up to do.

Net asset value 548.71p Capital only (undiluted)

Net asset value 556.05p Including current year income (undiluted)

A delayed shipment of gold bars means $2 million of revenue which would have been booked in December (Q2) has been carried over into this quarter.

85% of capital costs earmarked for GRG have already been invested with the remaining $250k capital to be sunk over the next 6 months. Looking beyond this year that will boost plant capacity and recoveries.

Overall Group Adjusted EBITDA of $6.3 billion at the half year.

"Reflecting healthy cash generation and after funding $2.9 billion of net capital expenditure and $1.0 billion of shareholder returns, Net debt, including Marketing-related lease liabilities, finished the first half at $3.6 billion, down $1.3 billion compared to $4.9 billion at the end of 2023.

"$1 billion Viterra cash disposal proceeds expected to be received over the next several months... annualised free cash flow generation of c.$6.1 billion, augers well for potential top-up shareholder returns, above our base cash distribution, in February 2025."

What utter nonsense!

Great posts over the weekend HarChris, once the feasibility drops it will put Douta firmly on the radar.

The ideal scenario I think would be they secure a JV this year with a major who will stump up the lion's share of capital giving Thor a fast tracked, free ride through to production. The more likely route of going it alone is certainly within their remit given the forecasted cashflow Segilola Gold mine is generating although it will inevitably be a longer journey and there will be a sizeable loan requirement at some point which tends to act as a drag on the share price. But a lot can happen between now and then.

The news about Canmax forming a JV to develop two lithium mines in Nigeria shows there are majors making long term strategic plans while prices remain suppressed. Prices will turn higher soon enough once demand reaches a tipping point. By 2030 global demand for lithium is expected to be twice the annual mine supply.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1421980/global-lithium-supply-and-demand/

Goldplat is beginning to attract attention, as the price of gold breaks through $2,900 for the first time.

Market cap: £12.75m

Goldplat are a marginal producer able to make minimal profit on low margins - 17% gross profit last year on an average sale price of $2,076/oz.

"The margins of the Group depend upon the volume, quality and type of material received, the metals contained in such material, processing methods required to recover the metals, the final recovery of metals from such material, the contract terms, metals prices and foreign currency movements. During the year, the gross profit margin remained 17.7%, with the high volume of high-grade low-margin batches processed in Ghana offset by lower gold production in South Africa."

With the price of gold rising far faster than costs, gross margins will have increased quicker than most other producers. I don't know of any producer with gross margins less than 17%..

If it's freely available data and 'analysis' it's best to just ignore it, 99% of the time it's based on previous years data and I suspect mostly auto-generated. With Pan African rapidly increasing production and margins rising courtesy of the gold bull run it shows just how inaccurate those sites are. Difficult to know how aware the wider market is of the transition beyond volumes traded.