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Eyeing up the current dip too. Gold futures just broke a record high.

Net profits are on operations and does not factor in capital expenditure of $9.9m ($5.6 million went towards Thaba JV during the quarter). If you compare the basket price per ounce to AISC of $971/oz it's a more accurate read of ongoing profitability.

The all-in costs per ounce figure includes capital expenditure mentioned above which goes some way to explaining the depleting cash reserves.

High capital expenditure over the past year on the Thaba JV is set to reduce sharply in the coming months with first production on course for HY2 FY2025. At that point Sylvania should be generating $10-15 million net every quarter which should encourage buyer interest back.

In the real world not all things are created equal. The small cap juniors are not expected to compete with the likes of Newmont but they can certainly benefit from working with them. This is exactly how WTR are being operated. Did you read the part whereby all parties can earn-in to any "potential big winner" alongside Newmont? Ariana Resource has the option to retain equity in a substantial discovery which might be worthwhile but at this stage it looks unlikely given the financial constraints they would face. But in the meantime Newmont is helping fund Ariana's pursuit of the earn-in to Slivova.

The longer term significance of Newmont's interest here is the likelihood they end up with a sizeable stake in Ariana over time, a consequence of their continued financing of WTR.

I think you should reread the details of this partnership before rushing to the wrong conclusion.

Ariana are working with Newmont one of the world's gold majors for another 3 years who are for the most part funding WTR (currently 75% owned by Ariana). Newmont are primarily interested in Tier 1 copper-gold systems across the Tethyan Metallogenic Belt, known to host multi-million ounce gold deposits. By stumping up $5-10 million over 5 years they gain access to the exploration data, early drilling results and map the area before any majors can swoop in.

Newmont are hoping to find a Tier 1 asset and the terms of the partnership state if successful in identifying a project of sufficient merit for further development by Newmont, such project will be transferred to a dedicated “Mining Company”, which Newmont has the rights to earn-in to 60% of the Mining Company initially, later increasing if they spend $15 million, establish a 2 million ounce resource. WTR can still earn-in by matching Newmont, funding will be on a pro-rata basis, however it's unlikely WTR would pursue that route.

Ariana stand to benefit via WTR pursuing an earn-in to the Slivova project, a small scale, near term production project. This isn't of much interest to Newmont given the scope of the asset but it is being funded by their involvement in the wider WTR partnership. The earn-in terms mean WTR is likely going to come out with 85% (or possibly the entire) ownership of the Slivova project, Ariana being the major beneficiary if that is the case.

Summary of agreement

- Avrupa and WTR signed heads of terms for an Earn-In Agreement in relation to the Slivova Gold Project in May 2023

- WTR can earn-in up to 75% of the Project within the next three years by committing up to €1.8m in funding.

- WTR can increase its interest to 85% of the Project on delivery of a Feasibility Study, Environmental Impact Assessment and a completed Mining License application.

- WTR can increase its interest to 100% of the Project if Avrupa does not fund its share of the associated costs of any mine construction.

The preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the project was completed in September 2023 and is estimated to yield an average annual production of 13,000oz of gold with LOM of 7+ years. Capital expenditure est $33.4m.

Serabi was the top performing investment in my portfolio last year eclipsing even the likes of Rolls Royce and the banking stocks which by sector standards had an incredible year. If the status quo is undisturbed Serabi will outperform the wider sector and could easily double from here. The amount of cash being thrown off each quarter with gold at $2,750/oz in comparison to market value is eye watering! Also expecting continued gains in Pan African and Adriatic Metals plus possibly a rebound in sentiment with beaten down PGM producers Sylvania and Tharisa. Exciting start to the year here. Long may it continue!

Market appetite for AI / blockchain / cryto / fintech is stronger now than ever in part thanks to the new US administration (Trump coin is the fastest rising cryto) and it's supporters. I'm sceptical of the value proposition most of these stocks with early stage tech now boast, there is an obvious disconnect between valuations and short term financial performance with stock valuations difficult to quantify in the absence of a buyout or M&A

The absence of any form of 2025 guidance will keep a lid on the share price short term.

Market cap of £125m based on 16koz in 2024 compared to Serabi for example valued at £99m, produced more than twice the equivalent amount of gold, $16m net cash pile compared to Anglo Asian's $14m net debt. The longer term value prospect is here but I wouldn't expect the market to get ahead of itself until we start seeing improved guidance and the company meeting it's targets, revised guidance aside.

Possibly witnessing a breakout this week with commercial production announcement due and a general update on 2024 performance. May also see increased interest in the next few months as investors cotton on to the 2025 forecast production figures and likely financial windfall coming this way.

Shorts not going well..

These are hardly sell on news results.

Gold production of 37,520 ounces in 2024 up 13.2% on 2023 with guidance in 2025 of a further 20-30% increase (44,000 – 47,000 ounces).

Net cash position (after interest bearing loans and lease liabilities) up $11.2 million over the year to $16.2 million.

Cash balances total $22.2 million compared to $11.6 million at the end of 2023.

The gold price was trading around $2,000/oz at the beginning of 2024 compared to $2,640/oz this January.

Bangrak - The All-in cost increase is due to capital expenditure on the Thaba JV and other projects, $4.8m entirely attributed to Thaba JV spend in Q1 FY2025. Quite a sizeable increase which aligns with the rise in AIC from $1,161 to $1,401 over the quarter.

That Sylvania are funding Thaba mine development from cash in the bank is less of a concern given the timeframes (capital spend due to end later this year with Thaba production coming online).

What is puzzling is the lack of interest in the PGM space while gold continues to attract a higher bid.

Outperforming everything in my pf and across the sector. Not sure why anyone would sell their best performer, each to their own..

Almost exactly half way through its financial year, Pan African has reiterated its production guidance for FY25 of 215,000oz – not least as a result of c 9,000oz gold produced at MTR in H125 following a seamless ramp-up process that has proceeded ahead of schedule since commissioning in early October. As a consequence, we have revised our production expectations for FY25 up by 3,130oz (1.5%), although we have revised our normalised headline EPS (HEPS) expectations down by a modest 4.2% to reflect lower margin initial start-up production supplanting established, steady-state production from Evander and Barberton and the recent 3.0% strengthening of the rand against the US dollar. Note that production in H225 is expected to be 44.6%, or 38,590oz, higher than in H125. Guidance for FY26 was exactly in line with our prior expectations.

Highlights are impressive to reel off!

- Significant increase in FY2025 gold production of around 215,000oz (FY2024: 186,039oz) 16% up on the prior year.

- Production guidance for FY2026 has today been increased to 235,000 - 250,000oz, mainly driven by the steady-state production at the MTR operation as well as increased production from Evander Mines underground operations.

- Group expects to be materially unhedged (zero-cost collars) by March 2025 and fully exposed to the rising spot gold price and anticipate they will be fully de-geared in the next 12 to 18 months.

- Early production from the Mogale Tailings Retreatment (MTR) operation is making up the shortfall at Evander.

- The Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant (BTRP) is on track for production of between 7,000oz and 8,000oz in H1 2025, with the life-of-mine (LoM) of the operation increased by a further six and a half years. Production ramp-up ahead of schedule, steady-state production expected this month.

- FY2025 production at Barberton Mines underground operations of approximately 73,000oz (FY2024: 71,470oz).

Cobus Loots, Pan African’s chief executive officer commented:

“The performance of our MTR operation, completed ahead of schedule and under budget, has exceeded expectations, with a successful production ramp-up and the plant performing to specifications and at the same time maintaining an excellent safety record. In terms of our production base, the Group is now well diversified with both high-grade underground mining and high-margin surface operations. We are also excited about our ability to further expand our surface business in the short term to the benefit of all stakeholders.

We expect a much-improved performance for the Evander Mines underground operations in the second half of this financial year, with the large investment in infrastructure and optimisation over recent years benefitting this high-grade operation for more than a decade into the future.

We are poised to deliver a significant increase in gold production for the full financial year, and then again in FY2026. By March 2025 Pan African will also be largely unhedged, and at prevailing gold prices, the cashflow generation from our long-life portfolio of quality assets should allow for rapid de-gearing and flexibility in deploying capital on value-accretive growth and further sector-leading dividends to shareholders.

Pan African continues to excel in terms of our returns to shareholders, where the Group was ranked third in the Sunday Times Top 100 Companies in 2024 (from ninth in 2023). Additionally, the Group has now qualified for inclusion in the Van Eck GDX Gold Miners ETF in the United States of America, which has positively impacted liquidity and increases exposure to a larger pool of US investors.”

Berenberg issued a rating downgrade on Friday - timing the release as the stock goes ex dividend, a common practice from these companies to give the illusion their assessment holds more weight (can influence the price) than is the case.

Despite outlining their reasons for the downgrade Berenberg anticipates “steady returns for shareholders” and makes no mention of the imminent sale of assets.

That would explain the rationale. Calibre bought at the perfect time too, gold price was half what it is today 5 years ago.

Just goes to show how much has changed since I last looked lol!

So Calibre only paid $100m back in 2019 for an operational mine with the complete infrastructure and licences in place which looks a far better deal than what Metals are offering now for the incomplete land package and capital requirement to bring to production.

"I would hope that Mr Bowden issues a press release in the next few days to sell the idea to the MTL shareholders. Just let us know the rationale behind the purchase, time frames for developing the new assets, some financial forecasts etc."

It looks like they are taking advantage of the distressed financial situation Condor finds itself in today. La India was touted to be a highly profitable mine years ago when gold was lower and options for a pilot plant were being drawn up. If they are able to snap it all up for £60-70m with the price of gold now above $2,600 it will be considered an incredible bargain! The share price is still lower today than it was a decade ago (post share consolidation) despite the drilling campaigns and capital already sunk (at shareholder expense) to prove up a couple million ounces, high grade within the vicinity of La India.

I almost feel like MTL are biting off more than they can chew taking Condor's assets assuming they plan to bring La India into production on their own. If they were to JV with B2Gold who already operate nearby then you could see a swifter route through to early mining and processing of ore .

The sale of the Egyptian, Italian and Croatian portfolio to Carlyle International Energy Partners will cover the special dividend and then some. Whether this happens as soon as the company infers is anyone's guess at this stage. I'm sure many of us can afford to wait another month or two for completion "by or just after year-end 2024". Once the sale is confirmed it will be a clear buying signal from this level.

As an aside the cessation of hostilities with Lebanon is a positive step in deescalating tensions in the region and mean Israeli forces can focus all their efforts mopping up Hamas and ending this conflict (probably once Trump is in office).

Considering he is not in office currently it's going about as well as can be expected. Let's not forget who shattered this 'peace' .. globalist puppets Blair and Bush did a fine job lighting the powder keg and Obama added fuel to the fire. It was Biden's administration that handed over $10 billion worth of frozen assets to Iran, the chief sponsor of Hamas and jihadi groups operating on Israel's border. The Democrats have been drip feeding Ukraine arms that will neither defeat nor adequately protect them from Russian aggression and had no plan to end the cycle of destruction. It's little wonder America voted in an outspoken and crass 'strongman' who will put it's country first and use it's military strength when needed to send a message like in the case of Qasem Soleimani..