Member Info for the_shareminator

Agree with your assessment. It's a bit of a reprieve and relief for those who have bought or added recently but the company's operations are still too finely balanced to make an absolute case for investment, especially with the lack of dividend protection we used to enjoy here.

Gold seen hitting $2,850 as further rally expected

Further gains should be on the horizon for gold and oil prices despite recent rallies having hit the brakes, according to UBS analysts.

Analysts from the bank forecast gold to hit US$2,850 an ounce next year, which would see the previous record around the US$2,680 mark smashed.

“Geopolitical risks are here to stay and will likely keep a risk premium in the prices of both commodities,” analysts from the bank said in a note.

“We also see fundamental factors that should guide both oil and gold higher in the coming months.”

For gold, demand ahead is expected to pick up as central banks continue to wind down interest rates.

Ongoing buying by central banks should also buoy prices, according to UBS, alongside a seasonal recovery for jewellery purchases and Chinese investor interest.

“Uncertainty around the fast-approaching US election should support the bullion” too, analysts said.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1058076/gold-seen-hitting-2-850-as-further-rally-expected-with-oil-analysts-1058076.html

MrBond007 that was nicely put. Such behaviour on here, the flip in sentiment and talking down an investment for a quick trade, normally gets my back up and others too but I like how you found the humour in it. It is a nice feeling to flip high and buy more on the trough though. Haven't tried that here in a while, too risky being out. Tried it in MTL though and bought back too early! Who wants to be out when gold is making new highs!

investment guru. Joking aside though it feels good when you call an AIM share investment correctly so good on yuh.

Tharisa can take pride in their latest accolade 'Annual chrome production output highest in the Company history'

2025 outlooks is positive with guidance of 140-160 koz PGMs and 1.65-1.8 Mt of chrome concentrates.

2024 results were more or less as expected with a good increase in net cash. PGM production 145 koz and Chrome production at 1.7 Mt are respectable outcomes and within stated guidance.

Average annual PGM basket price reads horribly but may now have found the floor. Hopefully Chrome price retains the $300/t level into next year (not aware of any major headwinds).

Increasing cash position and reducing debts while performing share repurchases reads well. Company profile is improving and analysts will take stock once they've poured over the numbers and updated their estimates.

Q3 2024 Operations Update for the Kounrad dump leach, solvent extraction and electro-winning ('SX-EW') copper recovery plant in Kazakhstan ('Kounrad') and the Sasa zinc-lead mine in North Macedonia ('Sasa').

Q3 2024 operational summary

- Zero lost time injuries ('LTIs') at Kounrad

- Zero LTIs at Sasa

- Kounrad copper production of 3,641 tonnes

- Sasa zinc-in-concentrate production of 4,768 tonnes

- Sasa lead-in-concentrate production of 6,864 tonnes

Outlook

- Kounrad on track to achieve 2024 full-year guidance for copper production (13,000 to 14,000 tonnes)

- Sasa expected to achieve lower end 2024 guidance for zinc-in-concentrate (19,000 to 21,000 tonnes) and lead-in-concentrate (27,000 to 29,000 tonnes)

Gavin Ferrar, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"Kounrad continued to perform well in Q3 2024, in line with its production performance in the corresponding period of last year, and maintained its excellent safety record. Q3 is seasonally Kounrad's strongest quarter, and the operation remains on track to achieve full-year production firmly within the guidance range given at the start of this year.

"Sasa also performed well in Q3 2024, with the tonnage processed recovering from the levels of H1 2024 towards the level recorded in Q3 last year. This represents a great achievement by the Sasa team, given the challenges posed by the transition to the new mining system designed to ensure the operation's long-term future. Head grades, in particular zinc, also recovered relative to H1 2024. We look forward to maintaining this progress in Q4, which we expect to result in full-year production towards the lower end of the guidance range.

"Meanwhile, the Capital Projects programme at Sasa is nearing completion, which includes moving to the use of paste backfill in mining and adopting dry-stack tailings. Together, these technologies form the core of Sasa's long-term strategy; maximising resource extraction, and extending the life of TSF 4 and thus avoiding the need for a new conventional tailings storage facility. Together, these developments ensure Sasa's planned life to at least 2039."

Good news considering the price swing last quarter, RBC maintaining 300p price achievable with headwinds behind us. Note silver futures are now outperforming gold on the monthly and from an annual basis. Top performing commodity in 2024 quite likely now!

"The underground mine is now operating in areas with more stable ground conditions which should allow for continued improvement in development and mining rates.

Processing plant issues are also now largely resolved, though permits for the alternative tailings facility are outstanding and due in October.

Although the search for a permanent chief executive continues, RBC says interim CEO Laura Tyler has more than 30 years of mining experience and a strong profile.

Cost and capex changes account for the lower price target but the broker expects Vares to become more cost-efficient over time as the local workforce becomes more productive.

"We see current share price levels as a unique entry point and expect a re-rating to occur as the company moves from a development into a production company" with its ‘outperform’ recommendation intact.

A big swing in the valuation of BlackRock World Mining Trust's portfolio in the past 3 weeks!

The value of assets under management have risen from 492.64p Capital only (499.74p with current year income) on September 6th to 577.09p (585.76p) at the last update.

Interestingly the seller Kave Sigaroudinia linked with Baillie Gifford which is an investment fund began selling their holding on September 11th when gold futures were $2,550 and in the two weeks they have since risen to above $2,700 at one point. The share price is currently higher today than it was on the day of their first sale two weeks ago. I'm not surprised they sold some two days ago when the price went above 90p per share. We are up more than 250% since last October

Is that your best attempt at talking the stock down pedro mate? So a larger holder has reduced into the recent price rise and there are buyers taking up the stock. Onto the next newsworthy event!

@Xkat - "How do you stop a war from here!"

Blowing off thousands of trigger fingers is a good start lol. Israel definitely has the upper (and complete) hand

All the majors RIO, GLEN, BHP, AAL, ANTO putting on weight today. US market shake up with USD weakening and election uncertainty adding some much needed wind behind the sails of the UK listed mining sector. Pull back today is a shame but we are banking a healthy dividend, many will choose to reinvest if sentiment continues to improve. On a sidenote my other copper holdings in TKO, BRWM, AAZ are a way off their year highs so plenty of room for share price gains (compared to the gold producer stock prices which are setting year highs every month).

Gold futures climb above $2,700/oz for the first time

Adriatic just had a "record month of production" in August and "has already exceeded [August's] total" in the first three weeks of September! The ramp up is on track and nameplate production only a matter of 6-8 weeks away.

From the Interims it was mentioned ore production in August totalled 25,514t compared to 5,595t in July.

August weekly production was around 6,000t which compares to around 8,000t per week average so far in September, higher output more recently as the ramp up is continuing so we are probably at a 8,500t weekly run rate at this point going forward and moving closer to weekly production of 14,000t by end of this year (based on 2025 production forecasts).

Today's presentation shed some light on sales figures: " First full train shipment of 36 containers moved concentrate

to port in September. Sales progressing well with shipment volumes increasing"

https://www.adriaticmetals.com/downloads/investors/2024/20240923-adt-ops-update-presentation-vfinal.pdf

Write ups in both Mining Journal and IC, hidden behind paywalls but no doubt increasingly on people's radars

https://www.mining-journal.com/miners/news/4357306/caml-revenues-rise-strong-base-metals-prices

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/0f379aee-d6fa-5f20-9c9e-70f7d6c3d8f3

The geo-political outlook has worsened since October 7th wouldn't you say? This is no longer a contained Gazan insurgency but a much wider conflict incorporating the state of Iran, their proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, strikes on shipping in the region. The increased presence of Western forces in the region. The uncertainty of the US election and how much support Israel can rely on beyond this year will factor into possible escalation risks. There doesn't appear to be a short term compromise either side can reach. Israel's enemies only want it's annihilation whilst Israel want to destroy Hamas. October 7th though horrific in it's brutality and atrocities was not the all-out multi-state war that is unfolding. I think for this reason primarily market participants are more risk adverse now than 11 months ago on that dreadful day.

"Total capital expenditure for the year amounted to US$172.4 million (2023: US$113.0 million), which resulted in an increase in net debt to US$106.4 million, relative to net debt of US$22.0 million in the previous financial year.

Cash holdings declined to US$26.3 million (2023: US$34.8 million) due to project-specific capital expenditure, while net cash from operating activities declined to US$90.7 million (2023: US$100.1 million) as a result of the payment of increased income tax and finance costs."

Whilst inevitable and entirely necessary it's this 'news' that has likely caused some selling. When considered alongside the forecast increase to revenues and cash generation in the second half of 2024 and beyond then it's really nothing to worry about. Centamin was significantly undervalued by market experts and institutions for months hence the recent takeout offer. It will take time for Pan African to rerate higher unless a major swoops in but we must be at an even greater discount to value given debt on the balance sheet. Easily 50% below where we should be trading in my view.

On dividends they have increased it by 20% compared to last year. The reason for such a low yield at 30p/share is down to the share price moving 110% during the year!

"The board has proposed a final dividend of ZAR489 million for the 2024 financial year (approximately US$26.8 million), equal to ZA 22.00000 cents per share or approximately US1.20946 cents per share (0.95611 pence per share). A dividend of ZA 18.00000 cents per share or approximately US 1.05820 cents per share (or 0.86915 pence per share) was paid for the 2023 financial year."

Investors are likely not buying Pan African exclusively for the dividends, which are heavily taxed unlike Centamin and previous London listed miners like Highland Gold etc. Hochschild or Fresnillo (I forget which) has previously paid less than 2% yield during good years but this won't detract value investors.

The reason I believe for the muted response today is more likely the ongoing CAPEX which is comparatively much higher than the previous year (for obvious reasons). 12 months from now those CAPEX figures will be much lower and the outlook even rosier.

Thanks for correcting me on that point I read it wrong. Total dividends amount to 3p combined. Excluding the special then we are at a less impressive 5% going forward

Market value today £109m (41p/share)

The group had a cash balance of $97.8 million (£75m approx) at the end of June, no debt or financing.

In the past six months they have paid $3.3m as an interim cash dividend (5 April 2024) and $3.3m as a special cash dividend (7 June 2024) following settlement of Grasvally Mine sale. They've just announced a final divided of 3p/share which effectively means this stock is yielding 14% at today's price excluding the special dividend and assuming no dividend cuts around the corner.

Whether poorly executed or not they spent $2.1 million on share buybacks in the 60p range (and subsequently cancelled) in recent months and I would place more faith in the Board than the likes of ST or any news outlet seeking to capitalise on short term swings.

In terms of the PGM basket and margin pressures this was always going to read poorly in comparison to the previous year. Prices look to have bottomed there or thereabouts. Palladium has added $130/oz since making lows of $850/oz a few months ago. Rhodium is up 17% on the year. Platinum is up marginally.

More importantly for the company's future the Thaba JV Project is oncourse for first PGM and chrome production next year in Q3 2025 I believe. This will add another 7koz to group PGM production and exposure to high demand chrome prices with forecast production of 210,000 tons of chromite concentrate.

My current portfolio is heavily gold and silver laden (PAF, CEY, RSG, WPM, EDV, HOC, SRB, MTL, HUM, GPM, THX, AAZ) however it has not always been so. Gold is simply 'the rage' today but as long term holders here know PGM prices can move far quicker when supply appears constrained. I've followed SLP since the 4p days and traded along the way. This is clearly a low point from which the company can and will bounce back. As always the hard part is calculating when the share price will make a significant about turn.

Sylvania still looks exceptional value taking a 12 month outlook, Thaba entering production, capital expenditure by Q3 2025 all committed, PGM basket ticking up with dividends maintained. They can probably afford another $6-7m dividends over the next year even while developing Thaba.

Cash depletion is inevitable and will probably be the primary factor in determining when to redeploy most of my recent gold gains back here. Tharisa also similar in many aspects with a new PGM mine coming online, already exposed to chrome sales but they are using significant loan financing. Currently Sylvania earn interest and can redeploy all of that before tax into capital expenditure - nice position to be in!

Are we all reading the same update!? That was a stonking update, potential for significant returns of capital via dividends in the coming year and 2024 cost guidance even better than forecast!

· Group cash cost of production (including royalties) reduced to $550-600 million (from $570-630 million).

We knew results would be impressive, still during the first six months the group enjoyed 'Record financial results' with revenues of $867 million, a 47% increase (H1 2023: $588 million) and adjusted EBITDAX of $568 million, a 65% increase (H1 2023: $345 million).

Profit after tax of $89 million, a 27% increase (H1 2023: $70 million), of which $116 million is associated with the continuing operations.

Group leverage reduced to 2.5x (FY 2023: 3.1x) as group cash and liquidity jumped to $345 million and $511 million respectively.