Member Info for the_shareminator

Good news with the alternate location for a tailing facility moving forwards now and operations continue unaffected.

In case anyone forgot or is unfamiliar this was an issue raised in the July 11 update - a court ruling suspended works on environmental grounds. At the time Adriatic said "No impact is anticipated on production" and this has been confirmed today also.

PERMITS GRANTED FOR THE VEOVACA TAILING STORAGE FACILITY

Adriatic Metals PLC ("Adriatic" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that all the permits for Phase I of the Veovaca Tailings Storage Facility ('Veovaca TSF') have been received from the Federal Ministry of Energy, Mining, and Industry ('FMERI') of Bosnia and Herzegovina on 24 October.

This follows the Constitutional Court decision regarding access to state forestry land in July 2024, which curtailed development plans for previously permitted TSF. Adriatic subsequently identified an alternative location for tailings storage at the former Veovaca open pit, which is located approximately 2km from the Vares Processing Plant. The Veovaca TSF does not involve the use of state forestry lands and the Company owns the surface rights.

Over the past few months Adriatic has expedited the full design and permitting procedures for the Veovaca TSF. All permits for Phase I have now been received from FMERI, including Environmental, Water, Full Design and Construction Permits. Numerous workstreams have commenced and the first tailings disposal is planned for December 2024.

The Veovaca TSF will be a dry stack facility and constructed in two phases. Phase I will be able to receive tailings for approximately 4-5 years of production and in total the Veovaca TSF will be operational for over 10 years of production. The capital cost of the Veovaca TSF Phase I is estimated at US$5m over a six-month period. The facility has been designed and will be constructed under GISTM ('Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management') standards.

The current operating tailing storage facility at the Vares Processing Plant has a maximum capacity of approximately 133,000t, which on current projections will allow tailings deposition into mid-Q1 2025. As Adriatic aims for the initial construction phase of the Veovaca TSF to be completed by the end of 2024, there will be no impact on production or the current ramp up to commercial production due to tailings storage capacity expected in the current quarter.

If you're not invested here yet do some research and look at the value proposition. The disconnect between cash generative earnings and P/E ratio on a 12 month basis is staggering! Gold price trading north of $2,500 is a bonus!!

If this is beginning to sound repetitive just let me know.

Palladium up another 4.8% today with the price touching $1,219.

If it closes above $1,224 that will mark a new 12 month high

Platinum at 5 month highs $1,053 and Palladium at year highs of $1,168

Palladium breakout as news filters out of plans to sanction Russia's supply of the precious metal.

Palladium has just recorded a 2024 year high of $1,163 up more than 9.2% on the day. Market speculators are rushing to buy in anticipation of order disruptions in the months ahead following a revival of plans by G7 nations and their allies to sanction Russian supply of the metal.

The Commodities Feed: Palladium sanction concern

Oil prices have rallied this morning after yesterday’s sell-off. Meanwhile, palladium prices have increased on the back of reports that the US is pushing for sanctions on Russian palladium.

Metals – Palladium sanction risk

Palladium prices have rallied in early morning trading today, up more than 4.6% at the time of writing, after reports that the US asked G-7 members to consider placing sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium. However, it may be difficult to convince other nations to place sanctions on Russian palladium given its dominance as a global supplier, making up around 40% of global supply.

https://think.ing.com/articles/the-commodities-feed-palladium-sanction-concern241023/

Palladium rallies 6% as G-7 considering sanctioning Russia - 09:10 24 October 2024

Palladium prices are up more than 6% today, after the US asked G-7 allies to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium. The price of the metal is supported also by safe haven demand and great year for precious metals; especially gold and silver. Russian company Nornickel represents almost 40% of global palladium production, so any sanctions may be really disruptive, potentially lifting prices.

Palladium and titanium are strategic materials for multiple military applications; also computer chips. The US has already blacklisted Russian titanium, but western governments didn't cut off Russian supplies because of interference in global markets and disrupting supply chains.

The price of palladium rose 12% in December on speculation the metal could be next in line for restrictions after the UK issued sanctions on a number of Russian metals. Earlier this year, the US and UK imposed restrictions on trading Russian aluminum, copper and nickel. Also, in September, Putin suggested that Russia should think about limiting exports of some commodities such as nickel, titanium and uranium in the response to western sanctions.

Palladium hits almost 11-month high today, reaching levels unseen since December 2023.

https://www.xtb.com/en/market-analysis/palladium-rallies-6-as-g-7-considering-sanctioning-russia

US and Asian media outlooks reporting Western sanctions incoming on Russian PGM reserves although Putin may pre-empt the move by limiting exports ahead of sanctions. Palladium supply is about to get a whole lot tighter next year! This could well spark a bidding war for Rhodium given increasing geopolitical uncertainty and it's finite supply..

Palladium price is up around 4% above $1,100 an ounce this morning

US Asks G-7 to Consider Sanctions on Russian Palladium, Titanium

The US asked Group of Seven allies to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium, a person familiar with the matter said, as the Biden administration mulls fresh ways to squeeze President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

Western nations have long struggled with their approach to metals sanctions on Russia. The price of palladium rose as much as 12% in December on speculation the metal could be next in line for restrictions after the UK issued sanctions on purchases of certain Russian metals. Earlier this year, the US and UK imposed restrictions on trading Russian aluminum, copper and nickel.

Sanctioning titanium would also provide a combative response to a recent proposal by Putin. In September, he suggested his government should think about limiting exports of some commodities such as nickel, titanium and uranium in retaliation for western sanctions after ensuring that it wouldn’t hurt Russia.

The US still buys Russian palladium. Russian company Norilsk Nickel represents about 40% of global output, a share of the market that would be hard to replace quickly.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/us-asks-g-7-to-consider-sanctions-on-russian-palladium-titanium-11729720374244.html

Interesting report and I do agree Rhodium is the one to watch for confirmation. Thaba JV will add another arrow to the quiver in the not too distant future. Organic growth is an easier outlier to predict and as commissioning draws closer there may be more interest in group activities.

Discussion of Rhodium demand is very much of interest particularly as it continues to outstrip supply. And yet, oh how the price remains flat!

There has been roaring inflation over the last 18-24 months and a depressed Dollar more recently, with greater gains for the precious metals and none of this is having an impact on the Rhodium price. Perhaps Russia has been off-loading some of it's supply it holds in vast reserves to help fund their war effort.

The overall official figures seem relatively flat and have been for years. The enormous spike in the price of Rhodium a few years ago isn't possible to spot in the supply and demand charts.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/592714/supply-of-rhodium-worldwide/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/592769/global-demand-for-rhodium/

Sylvania and the basket of metals it produces have lagged more conventional gold and silver miners largely because of it's Rhodium being heavily weighted as you mention. Long term though, in a world of fiat currency debasement and finite Rhodium supply, being one of the rarer metals there will be a tipping point and move to higher prices.

Silver future touched $34.95 this afternoon. Record production in September to look forward to at 12 year highs. Maybe I am missing something!? Market value still not at year highs despite the stream of good news.

WilliamofWokeham that may be true. There aren't too many on these boards that know about MTL nor their growth story in the past 12 months. I haven't seen the share tipped in Investor Chronicles or elsewhere recently. It's very much under the radar in the same way Shanta Gold was before it was bought out and Trans-Siberian Gold, before it was bought out..

Summary of construction update released today.

Approximately 300,000 project hours worked - no reportable injuries or environmental incidents.

There are currently 280 construction personnel at site - site development on schedule - the project is approaching 40% complete (September 30 2024).

First copper production anticipated Q4 2025 - no change to previous guidance.

Summary of key activities and status as of September 30, 2024:

· Earthworks and site preparation for the plant area and commercial wellfield - ~75% complete

· Concrete foundations for SX/EW plant and associated infrastructure - ~50% complete

· Pre-assembly and installation of structural steel for the solvent extraction plant commenced in August

· Installation of process equipment commenced in September

· Powerline installation - ~65% complete

· Wellfield drilling - a total of 34 production wells completed to date, out of a total of 90 to be drilled during the construction phase

· Point of compliance well drilling - 9 wells completed to date, out of a total of 18

· Construction of process and surface water runoff ponds

· Hiring permanent operating staff - 75 of 170 total positions and all but one key management position has been filled

Stuart McDonald, President & CEO comments:

"We are pleased with progress through the first nine months of construction. With approximately 75% of total construction costs now committed, we expect total costs to be within 10-15% of the original US$232 million* estimate. The project remains on track for first copper production in late 2025, which will be a transformative event for our Company."

"In addition, we have applied to the U.S. Department of Energy's Qualifying Advanced Energy Project Credit (48C) Program. Florence Copper, which is set to become North America's lowest GHG-intensity primary copper producer, qualifies as a critical materials project. After submitting a concept paper in June, we received encouragement to proceed with the full application. We have now filed the application seeking a tax credit of up to US $110 million, and we expect to hear whether Florence qualifies for the credit, or not, in January 2025" concluded Mr. McDonald.

Recent presentation following site tour available at the following link - note it's a long one!

https://tasekomines.com/_resources/presentations/October-2024-Florence-Site-Tour.pdf

Take two:

Gold futures trading up at $2,750/oz today. A reminder of how strong first half performance was - despite hedges and a lower gold price!

H1 Financial Highlights

- EBITDA of $116m vs $101m in H1 2023 driven by higher gold price environment and lower unit costs

- A$30m (approximately $20m) payment received for Ravenswood Mine sale agreed in Q1 2020. Second tranche of A$20m due in Q3 2024.

- Total borrowings at 30 June 2024 was $46.8m (31 March 2024: $46.7m) comprising of the Company’s overdraft facilities in Mali and Senegal.

- During the June Quarter Net Cash increased by approximately $63m to $97m (Q1 2024: $34m).

- As of 30 June 2024, cash of $101m and bullion of $42m.

- Secured $140m loan facility comprising $30m RCF, $30m Term Loan and $80m Accordion Facility.

- Total available liquidity of over $200m

https://www.rml.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Denver-GFA-Presentation-September-2024.pdf

Gold futures trading up at $2,750/oz today. A reminder of how strong first half performance was - despite hedges and a lower gold price!

H1 Financial Highlights

EBITDA of $116m vs $101m in H1 2023 driven by

higher gold price environment and lower unit

costs across the Group

 A$30m (approximately $20m) payment received

for Ravenswood Mine sale that was agreed in Q1

2020. Second tranche of A$20m due in Q3 2024

 Total borrowings at 30 June 2024 was $46.8m

(31 March 2024: $46.7m) comprising of the

Company’s overdraft facilities in Mali and

Senegal

 During the June Quarter Net Cash increased by

approximately $63m to $97m (Q1 2024: $34m)

 As of 30 June 2024, cash of $101m and bullion of

$42m

 Secured $140m loan facility comprising $30m

RCF, $30m Term Loan and $80m Accordion

Facility

 Total available liquidity of over $200m

https://www.rml.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Denver-GFA-Presentation-September-2024.pdf

SRB has clearly had the best year and for me will rank top three in sector during 2025 if the gold price continues to build, albeit at a slower pace of say 10% next year to test $3k

In order of 2025 value proposition and associated risks I rank the UK listed precious metals in the following order:

MTL top with SRB close behind. ADT1 is ramping up it's new silver mine just at a time when silver is breaking out and making 12 year highs. PAF looks good value especially if the new Mintails mine due to increase group output from early next year.

Then a decent outlook for RSG, HOC, SLP, THS, FRES, GFM, ALTN, CMCL, WPM, EDV (exposure to each in that order). CEY isn't to be an option much longer.

Riskier plays worthy of mention include HUM, GDP, GFM, JLP all of which are priced low for various reasons.

Silver futures smashed through the 52 week high today and are now trading at a level not seen in 12 years!

The price of silver is currently up 6.44% on the day!!

Price of silver up at $33.8/oz!!!

Strong moves in the PGM sector today!

Platinum up almost 2% to $1,025

Palladium up around 4% to $1,085

With you there Patryk221, there isn't another established gold PGM producer with better 2025 outlook than this besides Adriatic Metals IMO. Pan African should be higher compared to how Centamin, Hochschild, Resolute and Griffin Mining. Catch up time is coming!

The first stopes were brought into production in August with that month being a "record month of production" with 5x the amount of ore produced over July.

Production in September had already exceeded the August total by 23rd so give or take a day or two for reporting and that's 3 weeks which points to September having produced more than July and August combined! The ramp up is on track for 180,000 tonnes this year and nameplate production only a matter of 2-4 weeks away now

To highlight once again output is expected to climb above 60,000 tonnes per month by end of year with 2025 guidance unchanged at 750,000-800,000.

Now now, if we are going to talk semantics we probably shouldn't rely on economic data coming out of China. Even assuming those figures represented are accurate, growth like that simply isn't sustainable both in terms of demand and the subsidies China continue to pour into the EV market. The Chinese auto industry has become less competitive in recent years particularly for well known foreign brands that have been squeezed out of the market in favour of Chinese 'home brands' particularly the case for EV vehicles.

Similar protectionist measures are being adopted across the EU and other major economic powers too. If Trump is re-elected he will likely go further. The EV market outside of China is over-saturated and unlikely to change despite all the hostile legislation being passed against petrol and diesel vehicles and owners of these vehicles. The green agenda has been proven to be an enormous money draining ponzi scheme, disproportionately impacting the ordinary tax payer and benefiting the elite, who continue to jet around the world to attend climate conferences. I believe Oxfam recently reported there were some $40 billion worth of World Bank funds ear marked for green initiatives that had been siphoned off, no doubt the tip of the iceberg.

With regards to PGM basket pricing, Sylvania as you know is low margin currently so any uptick in commodity prices will be welcome, especially if we are talking about a floor established under the price of palladium which has fallen further than most commodities this year. UBS were overly cautious in their figures earlier this year so their revised estimate of $1,000/oz Palladium should probably be treated as more a sign of improving sentiment than accurate forecasting in the months ahead.

Focusing on Palladium since this news broke it has performed better than all other precious metals and if the past couple of sessions are anything to go by we may see sentiment continue to improve. The price of Palladium is around $1,070 today up around 5% this week so let's see whether interest returns.

The investment bank has increased it's Palladium price forecasts to $1000/oz next year on previous estimates of $900/oz in 2024 with the metal likely to lag behind other precious metal.

UBS bank's shift in sentiment comes as PGM metals begin to break out of their six month trading ranges encouraged by record annual increases in the price of and silver.

UBS now expect the palladium market to tighten which contrasts with their outlook released in April earlier this year, when they were predicting a surplus during 2024, see link immediately below:

https://www.ipmi.org/news/ubs-sees-palladium-prices-dropping-900-end-2024

UBS have amended their reasoning as reports confirm a downward shift in electric vehicle sales through 2024 which has helped sustain demand for palladium in auto-catalysts.

Additionally and more crucially in terms of near term supply constraints there are upcoming "cuts from a major US palladium mine" in 2025 which will tighten the market further. UBS forecast there will be a cut of around 150,000 ounces, which represents about 2.3% of the total 2023 mine supply (6.2 million ounces).

UBS continue to peddle the green rhetoric that pgm demand from the auto-catalyst sector will decline thereby fuelling an oversupply of palladium in the medium term (as I'm sure they are instructed to do by their green agenda puppeteers) and contrary to any of the latest figures on car sales..