First an apology. My post a few days ago , though intentionally pointing out that I felt your relentless negativity was unhelpful and inaccurate and not based on sound analysis , was more unkind than I intended.
Second an explanation . As I have posted on other boards I seek to offer constructive input in three areas , based on my lengthy time as an investor, to clarify some basic facts about how the markets work and to "call out " posters whose input I feel is either mischievous ,malicious or ill informed. I'll put you in the last category.
Third a bit of background . The reason that RDSA and RDSB exist, goes back to the merger between what was Royal Dutch and Shell TT and the subsequent ending of dual listing in 2005. As you now know the RDSA shares are listed in Holland and the UK and are usually valued slightly higher than RDSB. The reason for that is that in the event of bankruptcy the "A" shares rank higher in the capital hierarchy , ie they would be first in the queue for the left over lolly, though obviously that is a low likelihood, and as you also know the problem of Dutch withholding tax issues.
Fourth I think your pessimism is misplaced . I expect RDSB to rise steadily from here for some obvious reasons, ie the likely rise in POO, the recovery from the Covid slump and the extra oil consumption that will create over the next year or two, the tidying up of the Shell empire , exiting low profit areas, I still think that rationalisation of the former British gas (which as a holder of BG was IMV, a steal ) has some way to go and is steadily revenue accretive and the already extensive migration of the company in to "green energy areas(replacing oil with gas, cutting flaring ,Shell's large and growing wind business, and the likelihood of carbon credit revenue growth, staff incentivisation, ......)
I don't do numerical predictions(that way I'm seldom wrong!!) but I am confident that RDSB will achieve my >10% per annum compound growth target via both SP growth and divi's which I use as my folio objective.
Jomack I accept that others have a different view from mine , and after submitting my view and the reasoning behind it I leave the discussion . You are correct in that we could waste a lot of keystrokes getting nowhere, I will keep a watching brief here as I have done over several years and wish all holders good luck , or better still , good profits.
MIlk.... Can you really not see that shares representing almost half of the company's value on sale at a knock down price is extremely relevant to the SP and hence its current valuation?
Can you not see that the acquisition of Uskmouth is being seen by the market as a major error?
Can you not see that until SAE is completely disentangled from the GFG fiasco the SP is likely to go nowhere?
Can you not see that the SP falling from mid 30's when I sold nearly four years ago is a reflection of all of the above?
There is value here, maybe at this price, but I have learned that a probable loss avoided is better than a possible profit missed.
Skelotor .... I was typing while you posted your comment . Your analogy is flawed . What actually happened was that Atlantis as was (now SAE), exchanged half of their tidal power business (then valued at ~£45) for the Uskmouth plant and the opportunity it provided. It has subsequently been suggested(in todays ST article) that "it is believed that GFG paid about £1
MILL for Uskmouth" as it was intended to be recommissioned to provide energy for the nearby liberty steelworks GFG owned. So what Atlantis appeared not to know was that they were effectively paying ~£22 mill for something that GFG had acquired for £1mill. Thus whoever acquires those SAE shares will be as well informed as you now are and will not pay anywhere near their value in the original exchange. that this is well understood is why SAE SP is where it is now. Atlantis back in 2018 were duped and the company is now suffering the consequences.
I know Collingridge slightly and I know that he has been closely following this story for more than three years. So when his article says " there was no credible plan that would allow the plant( ie Uskmouth ) to be re-lifed as a biomass or clean power plant" and " commercial operation remains a distant prospect" I accept it as a well-informed view . That, taken together with the apparent change of heart from the Welsh government and the wider reservations about the "green credentials "of recycled plastic as Biomass leads me to discount the Uskmouth venture from my calculation of SAE's value. As I have said several times and as I believed when I first invested here some four years ago and still believe, there is a real ,valid, green energy business here but it is uninvestable (IMV) until the GFG/Uskmouth matters are resolved.
John Collingridge of the ST has similar story in todays paper. For those with no access to either paper I won't breach copyright except to say that Transasia, apparently lent GFG ~£50 mill and accepted GFG's stake in SAE as collateral. They are now suing to get that stake , to , presumably ,sell on to defray losses on the loan. They will clearly not recover all of the £50 mill , nor even close, and will no doubt endeavour to cash in on the asset as best they can by selling off to at least two willing buyers. Hopefully it means that the marine element of SAE is still a going concern , but it is essentially a write off of the bulk of the value in shares that SAE gave to GFG as a the price of Uskmouth . The future of Uskmouth now seems very bleak , or even terminal.
HI Char.... I see from your posting history that almost all of your last 500 have been about RDSB . I also note that you say you have been a holder of Shell for 18 years , and yet until recently you had failed to understand the implications of holding RDSA rather than RDSB for a UK based investor .I am relieved , because that means I can treat your constant moaning and repetition of negative assumptions and SP predictions as no more than the grumbles of a poorly informed and disappointed punter.
If it helps I would strongly recommend that you trade out of your RDSA in to RDSB ASAP, where you will not be subject to Dutch withholding tax of 15% on divis. I hate to guess how much that has cost you if you really are an 18 year veteran of this stock. My other comment is to suggest that by your own evidence you really don't "get most right". Had you been acquiring stock over the last year or so you could be ~50% in profit!
Anecdotal. Yesterday I rang BA to cancel two booked business class returns to Seattle for august, within a matter of ten minutes I was offered and accepted a voucher for double my fare for any business class destination worldwide to be used (ie booked ) by April 2023. it illustrates how desperate IAG are for cash in the short term. I have been holding off adding for a while until the smoke clears, I will continue to wait. I don't think the USA will be over keen to do a deal on transatlantic for some time yet.
Someone significant (ie not me!)has realised that BT is grossly undervalued. With the capacity to dominate its home market in broadband and the most mobile phone customers via EE, it should, if evenly moderately well run be worth far more than the current MC of ~£18bill.With the departure of Du Plessis and the hope that Jansen is at least moderately competent (and if he isn't he will be under huge pressure now from Drahi and DT)and the commitment to ramp up fibre, even if it takes a partner to fund it (is that Altice's plan?), I can foresee a significant uplift in the company's value . I don't do guesses as to SP but I have been adding to my already fairly large position over the last twelve months . Todays news is good but merely confirms the rerate that has been going on since last summer , but I think there is much more mileage in this . There will be SP falls from time to time but BT is a cash cow with prospective annual revenues in the £25-30 bill range and income of £3bill+. that should drive a market cap of £30-40 bill within a few years. if you want a SP estimate you can work it out based on those figures!!
Altice now hold 1.2bill BT shares (12%). There was a huge volume day on Monday, 480 mill, but apart from that nothing out of the ordinary, except a steady rise in SP. Quite how Altice have manged to accumulate that many without an RNS before now is a mystery. My only guess is a recent "off book " buy from another large holder who will have to notify soon. Should be a positive for the SP , but as ever those in the know will have already been aware of what was going on so expect a gentle bounce from here. As a long term holder I'm reassured that others believe that BT is good for more steady upward progress from here.
Munin looks like you're right , I have just checked the SAE website and the directors are listed on this page https://simecatlantis.com/about/board/
As it happens I recall making a positive comment on the appointment of Hambro back in 2018?, he has a long city track record (though that in itself is not always a positive). It's a lesson for me in going to source materials where possible!!
Isas..... AFAIK GFG have never taken up the option to appoint directors ,In retrospect I wonder whether GFG's involvement with SAE was more about convincing the Scottish government of their good intentions (see Fort William escapades and SNP's generous offers).
The current board members are as shown, with date of appointment (as per FT)
Graham Reid Chief Executive Officer, Director -- 2021
Stephen Hutt Chief Financial Officer -- -- 2020
Andrew Dagley Executive Director -- -- 2017
Duncan Black Non-Executive Director -- 2013
Michael Lloyd Non-Executive Director -- 2013
John Woodley Non-Executive Director -- 56 2008
Ian Cobban Independent Non-Executive Director -- 50 2015
Officers and Directors data as of Jun 06 2021
Todays news is no surprise, as I pointed out a few days ago the court order was to reduce emissions to a level just within the envelope of RDSB's current plans. It should cause them relatively few problems to meet the courts needs , it scores well with the green lobby and as is obvious ,has had almost no discernible impact on the SP. The SP action over the last twelve months or so is almost entirely attributable to Covid, and as the crisis passes, business and commerce recover all over the world, it will IMV return to a level appreciably higher than now. The company's product will be in demand for years to come see
and RDSB has produced a return(500%) equivalent to UK housing(450%) over the last twenty five years . I expect the same for the next twenty five!
Johnny ....you posted
" will be deciding if a 90ft wide beam boat is too big for the UK canal network."
Might read better as
"will be deciding if a 90ft, wide beam boat is too big for the UK canal network."
You're partially forgiven , it's your punctuation that needs work as well as your estimating!!
perhaps the"£7", might read better as "£1.70", a much more medium term estimate for RR.
I shall return to this discussion in 3-5 years time.
Milk... fair point about the term "placing" , I should have said "off book transaction" . The point remains tho' that whatever happens, while it may have no effect on the business, it will affect the SP , your comment "Offered to LTH's .... AT A GOOD DISCOUNT (my caps )" (to an already depressed SP) means that ALL the shares will default to that value or near it. LTH's can hold through all this , or sell out and return when the situation clears , I know which I believe to be the sensible strategy.
Says very little but the significant para is this;
"Separately, SAE has been notified by the receivers that an application has been made by them to seek a waiver from the Singapore Securities Industry Council which requires them to make a mandatory general offer for SAE under Rule 14 of the Singapore Code on Takeovers and Mergers arising out of their appointment as also referred to in that same announcement."
As I suggested in a post on 18 May it looks as though amongst all their other far more major infractions , GFG(and SAE?) were in breach of the Singapore takeover code since the day they (GFG) took a stake.
What this means for SAE is not clear (at least to me!!). In simple terms the receivers have no intention of using whatever cash there is sculling around in the remnants of GFG to buy out SAE, before presumably trying to unload the whole thing. I assume therefore that the receivers only option is to offer the shares(current value ~£18mill) in GFG's holding in a placing to more than one buyer, or drip them out in to the market??? in order to allow SAE to continue as a viable, funded entity. As I have said before, a forced sale does not fetch a high price, but if others believe that there is value here especially at a knock down price, SAE may well still have a future . When the dust settles I will buy back in.
Hi Grippa for RDSB the choice of whether to appeal is finely balanced. If they do appeal, it keeps the carbon issue in the public eye and makes the company seem resistant to environmental improvements. As they have already set out a fairly robust strategy for carbon reduction, and as I said the Dutch judgement more or less mandates them to hit that target but exerts no pressure to accelerate it, they have got little need on business grounds to seek to overturn it . To my mind the big issues is , whether flushed with (apparent ) success the green movement seeks to go back to court to turn the screw, or whether there are further actions in other jurisdictions . I think that latter is unlikely , the greens know that bicycling Holland is a pretty green environment (and choose to ignore the way Dutch tax rules legitimise profits transfer to minimise tax by multi nationals- hypocrisy is everywhere!)
If I were Van Beurden , I might be inclined to let the dust settle , noting that the original application to the court was in April 2019 , there is never a rush in these matters, accept that such actions will occur from time to time but assume that as the existing Shell strategy takes effect and the company edges away from extracting oil over the next decade or two, there is enough time to get the change plans executed .Even the Dutch court accepted that oil usage isn't going away soon . I think we'll still be using oil for decades , though eventually it will all be for materials rather than energy. As an investment I still see Shell meeting my 10% per annum more than inflation target for a good long time yet and as part of a balanced portfolio is a safe bet.