Member Info for casapinos

To qualify as a UK Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), the company must be a UK-resident company (or a group where the principal company is UK-resident) and primarily conduct a property rental business, it must maintain a balance sheet with at least 75% in property assets, and distribute 90% or more of its property rental profits as taxable(except if held in an ISA) dividends. Management expects the change to make the stock more attractive to dividend-hunting investors, and presumably to reverse the recent declines in the SP.

Xhita, you claim to have £550k invested in various airline shares and yet you are unaware that BAE is a defence company and that the ticker for British Airways is IAG, you really should have a word with your broker, he's been giving an HNW individual, l duff advice......

"Maybe today it might falter?".

Yet again, the markets react to broadly positive figures by sharply lowering the SP, I have referenced in the past the impact of dumb algorithms acting with herd-like behaviour, one selling, then another, and then all. As I have also said on several occasions, it provides the perfect setting for rational humans( there are a few!) to take advantage of a sharp SP fall to add at low values. I have done so.

Sorry, wrong board, still half awake!

The tenor of this am's RNS is strikingly upbeat, IMV the results though good, a little less so. I've been invested here for a while and am currently 20% up I expect the SP to continue to rise over the next year or two, BUT, maybe today it might falter ? I'm getting used to the market's cool reaction to positive data. We shall see.

Tich

No one, investor nor company management, can predict the return on an investment. What LGEN are saying is that they intend to spend 40% of the company's current market cap on Buybacks and dividends. That is pretty unambiguous; whether that results in a 40% return to an investor is in the lap of the gods(in this case, the markets).

For my part, that expenditure underpins my willingness to hold, until some external force alters the situation.

The market cap. is the number of shares multiplied by the SP. So what it means is that 40% of the market cap(currently £13.2billion)ie about £5.2 billion will be spent on dividends or share buybacks, which reduce the number of shares in issue, so that each of your shares is a bigger share of the company(I'm not convinced that it works as directly as companies would have you believe).

Your share of that cash is the total number of shares in issue ie 5.62 billion, divided by your number of shares. The cash, which will be spent on dividends, you will get directly, and that spent on buybacks, theoretically indirectly, over the next three financial years.

IN THEORY, you can assume that your return will be 40% of the value of your current holding, all else equal. In practice, I have no doubt that the company think that you will also get capital appreciation as the SP rises.

The benefit of that will show if the SP remains flat or, even better, rises.

A very rough and wholly theoretical calculation is to assume (hope!) that your return will be 40% of the value of your current holding.

HI Bob6

Comment on your scenarios

1 I am holding a significant amount of cash in the expectation that whatever rabbits come out of the Chancellor's hat, the market response will be either negative or extremely negative.

2 The correction is likely IMV from a trump tantrum(which was the cause of April's blip), a reaction to the budget or merely because the FTSE is still very near its ATH, and a retrace is not improbable.

3 As I have said on a number of occasions, LGEN has a tendency to follow the FTSE in either direction, not surprisingly, as LGEN's considerable assets are held in either stocks or bonds (and despite some arguments offered against it, the fact is that rises in the rates of return on bonds, drives their value down, and reduces the value of LGENs assets .

The company's commitment to a dividend has often been restated, and IMV it is secure.

Having said all that, I hold a significant amount here and will continue to do so. I am pretty confident that the Divi will remain intact at a higher level than almost any other guaranteed rate. It forms a relatively stable part of my balanced portfolio, along with boring stuff like tobacco, intermediate suppliers, retail and stuff like bonds, prefs, and ETFs.

I have been reading the various posts yesterday about who bought what and at what price, with interest and some amusement.

The geek in me decided to have a look in a little detail at what went on. Here's a summary of the main points.

Volume was significantly above the usual level at over 3 million shares worth around £ 40 million and 4x the normal daily volume, BUT a significant amount of that action was "off Book" which normally means market makers dealing with each other when they are short of stock. So perhaps 50-60% of the volume was real transactions, which means that maybe 1% of Jet2's stock actually changed hands.SO, despite the hysteria, 99% of stock is, this morning, where it was yesterday. A realist, like me, might say "so what's the big deal?" and the answer I get is "Not much".

That's not to say that the SP won't oscillate wildly again today, for the same reasons I've set out above and maybe for a few days yet.

Incidentally, close scrutiny of every trade(yeah, I know it might be boring, but it was that or finishing the fitted wardrobes, and they can wait!!!) suggests that several of yesterday's claimed buys DID NOT happen. I found mine time-stamped at 8.15.21; before that time, no significant volume occurred as MM's were adjusting their own positions to cater for what they knew was coming.

What happens next? Nobody really knows, but my assumption is that not today or tomorrow, but sometime in the medium-term future, JET2's SP will recover. The company has almost always operated on a low P/E multiple, which as of today is down to 6.6, which leaves it bottom of its peer group, while its PEG (price/earnings: growth)is top of its group. That's why I hold and will continue to do so.

GLA

3X normal daily volume, some Market makers are struggling to keep up and are short of liquidity. In layman's terms, they've run out of stock....

I said a while ago that the announcement of a share buyback programme was the first significant financial mistake from a company which is very fiscally aware. Despite the widespread adoption of this US-originated practice, the evidence for its beneficial effect on the SP is VERY Thin. I also pointed out that the buyback was initiated when the SP was nearing ATH. Today's sharp fall, if prolonged, might be short-term bad news for shareholders, BUT could be very good news IRO the share buyback. As of September 1, the second £125 million tranche has just begun and could therefore take out up to 10% more shares than expected.

OR, today's downbeat RNS is a masterstroke, having exactly the intended negative effect on the SP and achieving the objective of buying many more low-priced shares!!!

Is that TOO devious a view?

I got mine at 1302, my broker, II, struggled to get a price, but happy that there is the usual recovery from BOT-driven hysteria in the market. There is a real problem in that so much auto trading now wildly exaggerates SP movements, but sensible PI's can take advantage ...

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JET2/annual-general-meeting-statement/17214531

A pretty cautious statement, see

"Looking ahead to Winter 25/26, we have chosen to exercise capacity discipline in a less certain consumer environment, reducing seats on sale from 5.8m to 5.6m,"

"With limited visibility given the later booking profile and the remainder of summer and much of winter seat capacity still to sell, we currently expect EBIT1 to be towards the lower end of the consensus range."

I hold a few here and if, as I half expect, the SP falls sharply today, I will add. But recent evidence is that the market's response to RNS statements is unpredictable.

Lending, in VERY simple terms, the point my previous post was trying to make is that LGEN hold a lot of Gilts, and, as the gilt yield rises, the value falls, so LGEN's assets (held against liabilities) are getting screwed......

A couple of years ago, when the Truss implosion occurred, I posted this in relation to the rise in gilt yields and consequent fall in their value. I thought id' repost it today to explain the recent sharp fall in LGEN( and other insurers)SP

This is a straight cut and paste, so it's slightly at odds with the last few days, but the message is still valid

I've been trying to put together a simple explanation of yesterday's events, here it is :

1. Pension funds are required to hold assets to pay for current and future pension liabilities.

2. Many company pension funds have been transferring these assets and liabilities to firms like LGEN to simplify their accounts and relieve them of a function.

3. As I have mentioned before pension fund providers are required by law to hold liquid assets , primarily UK gilts so that in times of economic crisis they can sell these to meet their needs, these sums are enormous. ( The last figure I can find is for 2018 and it was £6trillion.)

4. Pension providers are required to maintain a balance between liabilities and assets for ( I hope) fairly obvious reasons!

5. We all know (don't we?) that as bond yields rise, prices fall and in the last few days UK long gilt yields have risen sharply and hence values fell.

6. So yesterday many pension providers started selling gilts before they fell further and as no one was buying, the value of these gilts started to plummet uncontrollably, sort of like a run on a bank , only in this case the bank is the BOE or more or less the UK GOV.

7. In order to stabilise the market the only thing to do was for the BOE to step in and offer to buy any gilts that were for sale, and once it became clear that there was a big buyer in the market and the price would stabilise the panic selling stopped.

That is, as I said a simplification, but , I think, good enough to make sense.

StanleyB, I'm becoming a bore on this subject, but the fact that shorts increase when an SP is going down is generally a signal that large (ish ) holders are taking out insurance against further falls. If Eg you hold £ 10 million value in this stock, then every 1% fall costs you £100k. This IS a case where a short might be appropriate. As the SP falls further, you don't mind too much 'cos even though your holding is depreciating in value, the short rises profitably,and, at least partially compensates for that. If, on the other hand, the SP rises and the short loses , your profit in the SP rise more than covers the loss.

There is still an awful lot of misunderstanding of how shorts work.

I

Absolutely right, Sammy.

What is implied in the results is that some fees, including performance fees and transaction fees, fell below analysts' expectations. In practice, this might mean lower activity in this area, or the impact of competition in the field, leading to pressure to reduce such fees from customers. Other comments suggested that the company is trimming costs (ie getting rid of some staff)in this area, and like most businesses, there is a strong prospect of replacing people with automation...After the market's initial sharply negative reaction, the SP looks to be recovering. Over the last few months, most of my holdings have exhibited the same initial downward pressure, followed by gentle recovery. There is an awful lot of anxiety out there. I am a happy holder....

Another set of solid figures from what is still a substantial growth area, BUT which prompts a (currently modest) market sell-off. I hold a significant tranche here and will continue to do so. The stock is currently about 25% up on its medium-term average price, so there is an element of risk of reverting to the mean, but as a substantial dividend payer, it forms part of my folio, which has consistently returned >10% for many years . I may add a few if the SP stays markedly below 250p .

For context, there are over 16 million domestic flights per annum in the US, that's about 45000 per day, that means an awful lot of prospective customers for SMWH and here are some of the brands they trade under

https://www.whsmithplc.co.uk/about-us/brands-and-partnered-brands

I've said it before, but it bears repeating, because of its enormous asset base LGEN acts very much like a FTSE tracker; broker downgrades reflect a view on the FTSE going forward almost as much as on LGEN.