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Copied from my post on the PSN board(where I also hold)

Here is a summary of why builders are rising today and may rise further as the potential cost avoided becomes clearer.

Builders and developers had warned that the proposed government reforms to landfill would significantly increase their costs (by an estimated 3,000%, or up to £24,000 per new home), threatening project viability and the government's housing targets. By backtracking on these specific, drastic reforms, the government has provided a "boost" in the sense of avoiding a major financial hit that the industry had feared.

Details of the Landfill Tax Decision

Original Proposal: The government had consulted on plans to abolish the lower rate of landfill tax (currently £4.05 per tonne for inert materials like soil, rock, and concrete) and converge it with the standard rate (currently £126.15 per tonne) by 2030.

Industry Reaction: Industry bodies, including the Home Builders Federation (HBF) and the National Federation of Builders (NFB), strongly opposed the plan, arguing that the lack of adequate recycling infrastructure would make the cost unviable and lead to increased fly-tipping. Instead of the full convergence, the government will maintain the two-rate system but will increase the lower rate by the cash amount of the increase in the standard rate, preventing the gap between them from widening in cash terms. The lower rate is set to rise to £8.65 per tonne from April 1, 2026.

While all of this was in the future, yesterday's news suggests that the Government has realised the consequences of their proposals and withdrawn them.

If only they would do the same with much of the rest of the budget....

Yet again, my post was uploaded incomplete, but the main fact is there. Here is a more comprehensive summary of why builders are rising today and may rise further as the potential cost avoided becomes clearer.

Builders and developers had warned that the proposed reforms to landfill would significantly increase their costs (by an estimated 3,000%, or up to £24,000 per new home), threatening project viability and the government's housing targets. By backtracking on these specific, drastic reforms, the government has provided a "boost" in the sense of avoiding a major financial hit that the industry had feared.

Details of the Landfill Tax Decision

Original Proposal: The government had consulted on plans to abolish the lower rate of landfill tax (currently £4.05 per tonne for inert materials like soil, rock, and concrete) and converge it with the standard rate (currently £126.15 per tonne) by 2030.

Industry Reaction: Industry bodies, including the Home Builders Federation (HBF) and the National Federation of Builders (NFB), strongly opposed the plan, arguing that the lack of adequate recycling infrastructure would make the costnstead of the full convergence, the government will maintain the two-rate system but will increase the lower rate by the cash amount of the increase in the standard rate, preventing the gap between them from widening in cash terms. The lower rate is set to rise to £8.65 per tonne from April 1, 2026.

While all of this was in the future, yesterday's news suggests that the Government has realised the consequences of their proposals and withdrawn them.

If only they would do the same with much of the rest of the budget....

Yesterday's budget DID NOT significantly affect the landfill tax. This measure sets the rates of Landfill Tax for the year 2026 to 2027.

"The standard rate of tax will increase in line with Retail Prices Index (RPI) and rounded to the nearest 5 pence.

The lower tax rate will increase by the cash amount of the increase in the standard rate to £8.65 per tonne.not significantly change the landfill tax arrangements, see this para from HMRC"

pre budget ther had been speculatyion about very significant changes to landfill tax , which wold have cost builders

..of my holdings, which will significantly benefit from the budget. The tax rises for landlords will have the effect of driving (or at least persuading) small landlords to sell up in significant numbers. This will directly drive up the costs of renting as the supply falls and, in all probability, significantly reduce supply. As an aside, I learn from a journalist who specialises in this area that " labour prefers institutional landlords to private landlords" implying that todays budget moves are intentionally altering the renting landscape in favour of institutional landlords,like Grainger.

I don't expect freworks, this is a slow moving area but I DO expect steady growth here.

Despite this government's plan to build 1.5 million houses in this parliament, today's budget offers no help for the builders. Doesn't seem to be any joined up thinking......

2.6% of GDP on defence by 2027, cf 2.3% in 2024

It seems pretty clear that the recent falls here are predicated on the hope of some sort of peace settlement in the Ukraine war. Whether that happens or not seems to me to be pretty irrelevant to the SP, despite the current market reaction. Two things stand out: first, lead times in this industry are long; contracts often run into years' worth of work, production and delivery, and AFAIK, BAE have around three years' worth of pretty lucrative contracts to deliver.

The second point is that, after many decades of relative peace in Europe, the Russian incursions into Ukraine in 2014(almost unnoticed!) and more recently have fundamentally changed the mindset of major European governments, Eastern Europe, Germany, the Baltic states and France, and the UK have been shaken out of a dream of a prolonged, stable, peaceful world. Money is being set aside for armaments in the realisation that even if a peace deal is achieved in the near-term, the risk of armed conflict flaring again is now much higher and military preparation is, in the main, expected and approved of by the people of Europe, and accordingly, Military expenditure is likely to stay higher and endure much longer than the Ukraine war.

BAE is the probable recipient of a significant part of the revenue generated from Europe and the Commonwealth countries.

I am adding her briskly here at these prices.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BOOT/sale-of-1-270-residential-plots-at-tamworth/17342415

A significant buy, no details of cost, but 1000+ houses, when built, will return £66k each (from recent data).

Sorry folks, yet again my post seems to have been curtailed. Short comment, I've bought back in, the fall is overdone on hopes of peace which is irrelevant to Ba's long-term sales and revenues, will add at these levels or below.

My long-standing Limit buy at

Apologies , for some reason LSE are super keen to get my musings posted, even before I've finished rambling....

I've been digging into the US delivery market, and while I've got lots more to do, a couple of things I've identified as background.

Basket size, DoorDash average delivery is around $37, while Kroger has a minimum of $10, with a charge of $4.95, and it's free above $35.

Delivering $35 of groceries with no delivery charge is never going to be cost-effective in the US, where the driver is getting at least $25 per hour.

While DoorDash bringing a pizza a few miles with an average journey time in minutes is probably cost-effective.

One of the more surprising things is the US predilection for tipping; whether it's always applied or not, there is a widespread view that delivery drivers should be tipped between 10 and 20 per cent of the order value. I wonder whether that, too, is a driver of Kroger's failure to achieve critical volumes?

From my recollection of US store prices, a weekly grocery shop in most places would be at least $200 and in many cases, very much more.

A $300 grocery delivery with an expected $30- 60 dollar tip begins to undermine my previous post about the $27 nominal cost to a shopper of the time in the supermarket.....

More to follow, but don't wait up, it might be a while.......

I've been digging into the US delivery market, and while I've got lots more to do, a couple of things I've identified as background.

Basket size, DoorDash average delivery is around $37, while Kroger has a minimum of $10, with a charge of $4.95, and it's free above $35.

Delivering $35 of groceries with no delivery charge is never going to be cost-effective in the US, where the driver is getting at least $25 per hour.Doordash bringing a pizza a few miles is

One of the more surprising things is the US predilection for tipping; whether it's always applied or not, there is a widespread view that delivery drivers should be tipped between 10 and 20 per cent of the order value. I wonder whether that is a driver of Kroger's failure to achieve critical volumes?

From my recollection of US store prices, a weekly grocery shop in most places would be at least $200 and in many cases, very much more.

A $300 grocery delivery with an expected $30- 60 dollar tip begins to undermine my previous post about the $27 nominal cost to a shopper of the time in the supermarket.....

Mighty . I think GRI would benefit from any changes to taxation, the effect of which would be to drive out small landlords, reduce rental supply and drive up rental prices. Yet another example of this government's failure to grasp cause and effect. Having browsed GRI's website, it is clear that they mostly offer high-end property, generally new or significantly refurbished and at prices which attract the wealthy, younger, often more mobile demographic. Today's gentle SP decline has persuaded me to add a few and brought my average below 190. I am a relaxed holder.

If there's any country in the world where a sensibly structured home delivery food service should work, it's the USA. See the following stats

"Approximately 18% of adults in the U.S. earn over $100,000 a year, which translates to about 38.2 million workers, or 21.1% of the individual workforce, based on 2024 data."

"The average grocery shopping trip in the USA takes about 46 minutes. This can vary significantly based on factors like the time spent in line, the size of the shopping list, and whether a person orders online for pickup, which can reduce the in-store time to a few minutes. "

"The average American hourly wage is approximately $36.53. This figure, reflecting the total private sector average from August 2025,"

SO it costs the average American the equivalent of $27 ( twice that if you're a couple) to do the weekly shop.

Those figures are an update of some research I did a couple of years ago when (as I posted here at the time) I chatted with a guy in California, and he said, "It cost me 5 dollars to have my groceries delivered, I earn that in five minutes......."

To repeat a well-run delivery service will in the near future, if not now, be widely used.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GRI/preliminary-full-year-financial-results/17335794

On the face of it looks excellent, and that, coupled with the recent move to REIT status, means us divi hunters should do well, though I'm now conditioned to the market's often churlish response to good figures. Logic suggests that the SP should receive a boost today, but in the current nervous world, we cannot be sure. Regardless of the short-term, this is a stock for the rational investor to hold for steady progress, little risk of major upheaval and a gradually growing dividend. I hold here and expect SP appreciation and divi to comfortably meet my CPI+10% pa growth target.

Stup , my point was that glancing through a few of Poker's many thousands of posts, a very clear bias towards negativity was apparent. Almost ALL of his recent posts were regarding companies which were, in one way or another, perceived to be failing. A situation in which, in blunt terms, he appears to take much pleasure. I, on the other hand, wish for all posters here to have a successful investment outcome, and that guides my posting efforts.

Newkotb , thanks, useful.

It's happened again. In my post at 7.30ish, I suggested that the market reaction to today's news might be an instant negative followed by a considered recovery, and at the moment that's exactly what seems to have happened. My 600p buy order was hit in the 590's and is already comfortably in profit. I don't advise others what to buy and when, but the instant fall, brisk recovery now seems to be a widespread phenomenon, worth considering when thinking of bailing out on apparent bad news or indeed buying for the recovery. BUT as always DYOR, some falls are based on REAL problems.

Poker ... I always like to know who I'm debating with, and having glanced at your(very extensive) posting history, it seems you're the sort of guy who likes to turn up at funerals even though you don't know the deceased. On that basis, even though I'm always willing to learn from those with something to offer, I won't bother to prolong the conversation.....