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GLEN up 8.8% overnight in US..........

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GLEN/statement-regarding-rio-tinto/17405876

There's the RNS, it looks like a merger proposal but is structured as a RIO takeover, will be accretive to both and will, if completed, create a company with a market cap of ~£125 billion. Likely to be SP positive for both companies.

I've been looking at MKS 's figures announced recently to try to gauge what the JV is likely to report for this FY. Rough cut estimates as follows

From MKS figures, it looks like the Jv will report sales of between £3.1 and £3.2 billion for the FY , which compares to£3.7 billion for the 70-week period previously reported. So, pro rata that suggests about a 17% increase in sales and as predicted, the operating loss of £ 32 million for the previous period is likely to become a small but POSITIVE number. Coupled with positive feedback from Coles, we are at or perhaps beyond break-even for home delivery of groceries, even if by a very small margin.

It's not earth-shattering, but from a long-term view, it is a very important corner to turn.IIRC OCDO report in late Feb, if that report bears out my guesstimate, it could well be amajor milestone. I will hold.

Typo."2000"

Once again a post is published curtailed....One of my limit sale was hit this am at 200 on a rise, which adds several billions to a £60 billion market cap. The market is unstable......

I'm going to be travelling for some time, so I have set up limit sells for a number of stocks, of which this is one. Having bought heavily at

While I deeply detest Mike Ashley, he obviously has a degree of native cunning, so it's worth trying to sort out what his investment here means.The few facts available are

Its a "Rolling spread bet" that means that each day the bet returns a profit or loss at the end of the day, and the punter can choose to roll the bet on to the next day. Each day, a fee is payable.

So , in this case, the sum at risk is theoretically about £42 MILLION (that being 3% of the GRI market cap)

I would guess that the fees are some relatively small fraction of 1%, but that could easily be a five or just possibly a six-figure sum.

GRI is a very unlikely target for this sort of bet , because as investors know, it's not a particularly volatile stock.

SO does Ashley know something about GRI's immediate future? After all, if it's something in the longer term, he will be paying the daily rollover fee for some time until the news breaks.

If he does know something and it's not in the public domain, it's insider trading, and he could finally end up in jail(wishful thinking on my part!)

The effect on the SP has clearly been positive, so the assumption is that the spread bet is aiming to profit from a SP rise rather than a fall.

As holders, we can only watch this space........

I've watched the video and could, if I thought it worthwhile, destroy almost all of the arguments offered. BUT I have better things to do, I offer a single alternative view.....Blackrock, valued at $172billion, has just increased its stake in Persimmon to above 5%. I'll go with Blackrock rather than some unidentified YouTube poster......

Davius, yeah, strictly true, but I didn't want to overcomplicate it by running through who can have DMA, why, and on what terms, etc.

Stup....Tars' post is accurate, but what it doesn't specify is that the process described is open to MARKET MAKERS only. For "investors" in the 3rd line, read "market makers". Hope that clarifies.

Swigman ...the UT(uncrossing Trade) is an end-of-day trade between Market makers who "square their books". All market makers seek to hold enough stock on their books to meet buy requirements for the following days or to sell when they have more stock than they need.SO some offer stock to sell ,and some offer to buy; those bids are balanced, and a composite trade to even out stock holdings takes place. That trade is the UT and is deemed to be a sell if the price is nearer the SELL than the BUY. It is merely an accounting measure and is NOT really a sell.

An article in the Sunday Times business section discussing the prospect of Norwegian company Visma( very similar business to Sage and very slightly larger) going public suggesting a valuation of £17 billion for a flotation. See this summary

Visma's valuation was approximately €19 billion (around $20.9 billion) as of late 2023, following a significant secondary share sale that brought in new investors and confirmed its status as one of Europe's largest private software businesses, with major backing from Hg Capital. The company provides critical cloud software, serving millions of customers, and is reportedly considering a major IPO, potentially in London, in 2026.

Key Valuation & Ownership Details:

Valuation: €19 billion.

Majority Owner: Hg Capital remains the majority stakeholder, with other investors including GIC, ICG, TPG, Altaroc, and Jane Street.

Recent Transaction: A secondary share sale in late 2023 secured €4 billion in new equity and valued the company at €19 billion.

Business Context:

Industry: Visma offers mission-critical cloud software for accounting, ERP, HR, and other business functions.

On that basis Sage is significantly undervalued at a MC of just under £10 billion on revenues only slightly less and growing fast. I have held here before but sold out when IMV the Stock was overvalued at £13+. I am back in at todays SP lows and will hold . If the Visma float takes place in London at or around the suggested levels , it must have a significant effect on the SP here.

GLA

Majortom, I expect a good year for housing stocks, there is a suggestion that the GOV. will have to look at some sort of "help to buy" if they are to get anywhere near the laughable target of 1.5million homes built in this parliament. That would be a very significant boon for the housebuilders but even ignoring that, a gentle drift down in mortgage rates and the stable/slightly falling house price index will make property more affordable. I hold both PSN and VTY and expect both to do well,( ie 20%+ over this year) . Most builders have significant land banks and are positioned to build if /when circumstances improve, but , as ever, that's no more than , I hope, an intelligent set of assumptions. I'll update them next Xmas.....

James, you may not be interested, but I have posted on these boards for many years with the intention of offering my 30 years of experience as a successful investor and explaining why that is the case. A significant number of posters here are trying to "make a quick buck", and statistics prove that almost all of them fail. I have gone out of my way in the past to identify failing investments(read the old Sirius and Hurricane boards to see the abuse I got!), but if just a few people note my comments and apply my approach, I'll be happy. I'm far from perfect in my investment strategy, but I have made decent profits for many years. We can all learn from each other, maybe you should join that prosperous club......

Below are some of my general thoughts on my investing performance last year.

It was one of the better years for returns, my Folio(and La Senora casa's ) increased by just a tad under 30% overall, though my usual failing of conservatively selling my winners early probably trimmed almost 10% from that. The other self- criticism is that I now have holdings in almost 40 positions, and I will be reducing that in the very short term.

GOOD DECISIONS

My portfolio has a solid base of ETFs/Funds in the UK, Asia and US markets, which have produced sound returns for many years

EG

FIDELITY world, +85% over five years, +12% last year

I SHARES Core S&P, +96% over five years,+10% last year

L&G UK index +78% over five years,+23% last year

In addition, some standard FTSE 100 stocks, M&G +44%, GLEN+30%, BP+30%, PSN+30%, I also made good profits on some stocks which have been "bombed out" in recent times eg OCDO +30%, PSN+30%, RTO+28%(all of which I still hold)

Selling falling positions early, and not hoping for a recovery, eg MKS, SGE, BNZL, GRG, JET2(although I'm watching all for a re-entry).

My bad decisions were almost all exiting rising positions too soon; nothing will match my decision a few years ago to sell RR at 200p (having bought at 70p). But as I have often said, I am happier with the profits banked, rather than still at risk.

My final comment should be fairly obvious from the above: I don't punt on minnows which might become giants, I don't follow trends, I invest reasonably heavily in large sound companies and my portfolio has a wide, stable base. Investing is really a pyramid scheme.......

I still hold a good few here, having sold at 2400 and 2300 on the recent sharp rise, though I do expect the Sp to exceed 2400and maybe quite a lot more in the coming year. I will post my thoughts for this year over the next few days

Below are some of my general thoughts on my investing performance last year.

It was one of the better years for returns, my Folio(and La Senora casa's ) increased by just a tad under 30% overall, though my usual failing of conservatively selling my winners early probably trimmed almost 10% from that. The other self- criticism is that I now have holdings in almost 40 positions, and I will be reducing that in the very short term.

GOOD DECISIONS

My portfolio has a solid base of ETFs/Funds in the UK, Asia and US markets, which have produced sound returns for many years

EG

FIDELITY world, +85% over five years, +12% last year

I SHARES Core S&P, +96% over five years,+10% last year

L&G UK index +78% over five years,+23% last year

In addition, some standard FTSE 100 stocks, M&G +44%, GLEN+30%, BP+30%, PSN+30%, I also made good profits on some stocks which have been "bombed out" in recent times eg OCDO +30%, PSN+30%, RTO+28%(all of which I still hold)

Selling falling positions early, and not hoping for a recovery, eg MKS, SGE, BNZL, GRG, JET2(although I'm watching all for a re-entry).

My bad decisions were almost all exiting rising positions too soon; nothing will match my decision a few years ago to sell RR at 200p (having bought at 70p). But as I have often said, I am happier with the profits banked, rather than still at risk.

My final comment should be fairly obvious from the above: I don't punt on minnows which might become giants, I don't follow trends, I invest reasonably heavily in large sound companies and my portfolio has a wide, stable base. Investing is really a pyramid scheme.......

Below are some of my general thoughts on my investing performance last year.

It was one of the better years for returns, my Folio(and La Senora casa's ) increased by just a tad under 30% overall, though my usual failing of conservatively selling my winners early probably trimmed almost 10% from that. The other self- criticism is that I now have holdings in almost 40 positions, and I will be reducing that in the very short term.

GOOD DECISIONS

My portfolio has a solid base of ETFs/Funds in the UK, Asia and US markets, which have produced sound returns for many years

EG

FIDELITY world, +85% over five years, +12% last year

I SHARES Core S&P, +96% over five years,+10% last year

L&G UK index +78% over five years,+23% last year

In addition, some standard FTSE 100 stocks, M&G +44%, GLEN+30%, BP+30%, PSN+30%, I also made good profits on some stocks which have been "bombed out" in recent times eg OCDO +30%, PSN+30%, RTO+28%(all of which I still hold)

Selling falling positions early, and not hoping for a recovery, eg MKS, SGE, BNZL, GRG, JET2(although I'm watching all for a re-entry).

My bad decisions were almost all exiting rising positions too soon; nothing will match my decision a few years ago to sell RR at 200p (having bought at 70p). But as I have often said, I am happier with the profits banked, rather than still at risk.

My final comment should be fairly obvious from the above: I don't punt on minnows which might become giants, I don't follow trends, I invest reasonably heavily in large sound companies and my portfolio has a wide, stable base. Investing is really a pyramid scheme.......

A piece in the Sunday Times says OCDO are looking for warehouse space in the North West to extend same-day/next-day delivery. The implicit assumption is that the UK business is flourishing. The article mentions that Ocado is the fastest-growing food retailer over the last twelve months.

While a high oil price has a significant effect on revenues, BP can still make significant profits at current, or even lower POO, see this.

"The operating cost per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) in BP's oil and gas production segment — was approximately $6.17 per boe in 2024, up slightly from $5.78 per boe in 2023. This metric, reported in BP's Annual Report and Form 20-F for 2024, represents the cash cost of operating existing production (often referred to as "lifting cost" or "unit operating cost"). It excludes exploration, development capital expenditures, and depreciation.BP expects this cost to remain around $6 per boe on average for 2025–2027, as stated in their February 2025 Capital Markets Update for the oil and gas business."

Hi Happy, I fully agree that the best outcome for BP is a SHELL T/O, but I suspect that Shell will wait for BP to tidy their own house before bidding. The Castrol partial sale is a useful step, but there is a lot more to follow before eBP becomes the streamlined exploration and extraction company it should be. I have added a few this morning and will continue to do so if the price doesn't move sharply upwards. I suspect this story has a couple of years to go, but either way, BP as an independent, focused on explo/extract or subsumed by Shell or another mega cap oiler is a safe, if somewhat boring investment