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"Ocado is worth far more than the current SP"
...and when they relist on the NASDAQ they will be.
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68639533.amp
Very impressive.
Ocado is worth far more than the current SP.
Short sellers have savaged the SP.
Following your prompt, Sang , I’ve now watched the video - which is 6 months old and made when the sp was, er, rather more than today!! So his advice turned out to be cr+p (although it did nearly hit 800 and I recall taking profits).
Yes - he says Tech is the thing for OCDO investors but look at it - is that really true regarding the company? It’s been pumping cash into UK CFCs and Logistics etc. etc and is now in the top three UK online grocers It’s primarily an f’in grocer ffs!!! And, despite being in the top three it is still making a loss every year - so something isn’t right - right?
The FY Report had Solutions at less than a third of group EBITDA - with Logistics dominating (thanks to people and vans) and Retail limping along due to the poor margins in grocery.
Autostore seem to have more focus on tech although they've admittedly not been as smart as OCDO in selling a product that provides a sustainable income stream.
OCDO tech has had more than a decade since IPO and a decade before that, so twenty years + , which is a long time in tech, but it still isn’t a global benchmark warehouse system. Is that because the UK grocery business was the priority?
I hope Steiner has a tough time at the AGM: after twenty + years building a top three UK on-line business and an advanced tech product he's still making a loss. I doubt he would even make it on The Apprentice. And he wants a bonus? LMAO.
A move to the NASDAQ needed for the tech side to be valued. It will happen.
Yes- I haven't seen it but I'm not surprised. Investors aren't paying attention to the numbers. The problem is that the company's results - and its resources - are weighted to Retail . It's a company with two divergent objectives and a mixed message. It's not a brilliant strategy.
If you check that Bernstein video I posted he said 10% of investor interest relates to Retail, the real business is Solutions.
OCDO didn’t even manage to fully fill Monday’s gap to 249.40 today: https://invst.ly/14klsn and with another red trend incoming during May it may well be time to follow the old saying to sell and go away ‘till St Leger’s day.
If the sp does revisit and test 342 again, which seems highly possible, then I imagine that plenty of stop losses will be waiting to be tripped not much further below. Perfect for shorters to exploit.
Meanwhile Autostore is about 10% down since December, compared to OCDO’s near 50%: https://invst.ly/14kmpk but they are a tech company rather than an online grocer that does a bit of tech on the side.... (sorry just a wind-up comment - but I do think there's a problem with OCDO's tech branding and identity that needs to be fixed).
Https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ocado-group-s-promising-cash-flow-improvement-and-market-expansion-opportunities-a-buy-recommendation-1032676655
This video is very much in line with my thinking from the Bernstein guy.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0wJaTKjCX-Y
It's like Kroger are committed to building additional CFCs.
They have put things on pause. If I pause a movie to get a cup of tea that doesn't involve throwing the TV out the window.
They literally seem to be copying the research posted last week on that AI site.
Sorry but in what world does a broker note from HSBC strike a serious blow to a business?
Fluff
Yeah, but that's a rehash of old info with spin. It's media hype.
Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/robots-sabotage-ocado-effort-to-become-tesla-of-grocery-3jpb2rgzg
"Robots sabotage Ocado effort to become ‘Tesla of grocery’
Analysts suggest automated warehouse business might not be as high growth as founder Tim Steiner hopes
The Ocado founder Tim Steiner’s long-held ambition to transform his business into the “Tesla of grocery” has received a further blow. In a note, analysts at HSBC highlighted the fact that the robot warehouse business might not be as high growth as hoped, forecasting slower uptake in what it said was already a “highly competitive” market with “many established participants”.
In particular, the analyst highlighted further problems with the company’s partnership with the US grocery giant Kroger, pointing to the fact it had announced the closure of three facilities, two in Texas and one in Florida, which failed to meet targets.
Ultimately, the analyst said that orders from Kroger, if anything, appear to be slowing down, underscoring the risk of overcapacity in the broader market"
Made a complete ar se of my self there, I can't deny it. But I'm the right side of the trade which is the most important. I'm not convinced we've seen my 350 or below so I'm waiting for the moment.
Thanks for the support Boyo and Stupmy.
Stupmy, hope your Ocado Financial calender diary is fully updated now :o)
Seriously the Reddit forum was made up of disgruntled workers that had lost their jobs.
They were criticising Kroger but what they were saying was in line with what Britain Ladd and others said about the spoke closures.
You can get a useful idea from talking to employees. I asked one of their drivers the other day how many loads. He said 24, which is their efficiency target. If he had said only 10 or 15 then that's a negative indicator.
I've no issues with anyone here. I will call out research based on what a guy on Reddit said or the importance of a couple of LinkedIn likes though.
Always DYOR. Try to go beyond the predominant blind optimism shown on this board. The profit has been there for those who have dared to investigate and capitalize on the flaws of Ocado.
What you post interests me, challenges my knowledges and helps me learn.
Not at all. I guess I feel that I have posted too much things that I find of interest but probably not of interest to others.
In seeking out responses to VP I have found out some stuff.
I believe you do have to have the investment case and optimist beliefs pulled apart.
It's just when the same points are made again and again......
Sangi, I hope I haven't annoyed you. I can promise you I have no issue whatever and enjoy your posts and see their value. If I have personally given you the impression I'm negative in anyway about your contributions to this board, then I've certainly not done it intentionally and I apologise.
Maybe some are happy with imprecise info supplied by VP and think it shouldn't be questioned.
I try to say things that reflect uncertainty by using words like May or Could.
If VP says Amazon have a partnership with Autostore and the reality is that they are just trialling their tech at one location then I am going to keep calling them out.
There is a filter if you don't like me doing that.
Me neither Boyo, perfectly happy with VP, just think that discussion isn't going anywhere. There are things that you can get a handle on and I guess we overlap there. But what I don't like I 'certain statements about what hasn't yet happened', that gets under my skin.
I can, I lot of people say they can see into the future (Alexei Sale gag).
Ha Ha Stupmy! I can see into the future and I confidently predict that VP will still be pi55ing a lot of people off on this board for a good while yet!
However, I’m not one of them.
Ok, if that makes you happy great. Obviously there's all sorts of likes floating around on linkedin. It means very little imv.
No but things like that are interesting. They show that OIA is attracting attention.