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Yes indeed Stupmy.
It may not have regained 365 but at least it has found some support at last year’s low of 342:
https://invst.ly/14gskl
(NB regarding this daily chart: Investing.com appear to be showing an incorrect low for yesterday at 3.48 due to a misplaced decimal point! The intra-day low appears to have been 335. However the open and close are what counts in this context ).
Whether support now holds and it builds from here is another matter - but there's been some some good and positive debate about OCDO’s strengths and value on other threads here today.
Will they stop doing buybacks?
And how much cash have shareholder's missed out on since they cut the dividend?
For people who relied on that income it was quite a hit.
It's very difficult to assess the true value of buybacks to investors - is there a magic formula?
I think the theory is that an income investor should sell sufficient shares to top up the lost income and that the buybacks will maintain their overall value. I've never been convinced about that but could it be correct?
That's a very interesting and relevant article, Sangijuelas. This bit caught my attention:
'As for Ocado, they’re a company we used to hold before AutoStore became publicly traded. One reason we exited that position is because the exposure we were getting to their U.K. grocery business dwarfed the small exposure we were getting to robotics. With Ocado’s “Software and robotics platform” seeing 44% growth in 2023, that segment now represents 12% of total revenues, up from 9% in 2022. ' This accompanied a table showing Ocado’s recurring revenue model as 'optimal and profitable'.
Phoenixy: Whilst I think it's found some support there's no evidence of a reversal as yet IMO. Yesterday's candle appears to contain a data error - the day's low is given as 3.48 so I assume the decimal point is in the wrong place for a 348 entry. I think the actual low was 335.
As well as Pokerchips' points, CFRA acknowledge in respect of the spoke closures: ‘….these closures are relatively minor in the context of the potential CFC order pipeline…’ their point being that …’ they are perceived as a negative indicator of future performance’ So It’s perception rather than actual performance that is driving their comment. Exane rated OCDO at 390 last September and were much ridiculed on this board. Although Exane don’t look quite so dumb now, it would be equally true to say that the business has made progress since then.
Meanwhile, today was more volatile than yesterday for OCDO but at least it finished above the most recent red trend and effectively on par with yesterday’s high at 350 (the arrow points to the closing UT price ) https://invst.ly/14g5kd . It’s probably going to be a weak period for the sp until the MKS statement in May and the half year results in June but it may yet level out rather than falling back to, or much below, today’s low of 335 (just above the 330 low last seen in December 2017)
Ha! the world is a mess GfG but it has always been so in the Middle East - effectively the middle of human conflict for millennia . If only God had managed his messengers a bit better and we'd all been on the same page eh?
Back to reality though: It’s interesting to see that, since 8th April, Shel’s sp ratio to OP has pushed upwards https://invst.ly/14g4d7 and Shel is now running quite hot in relation to it. I guess this might correct itself if Brent continues to drop back. I’m obviously assessing where my buyback target will be for the various tranches I’ve recently sold off as the price has risen. I reckon that today’s sp is about 175 above what it would have been at the same OP a month ago and I do think I’d start getting interested at about 2600 - a £3 per share gain on the last tranche I sold. I’ll be very happy indeed if match the annual dividend on half of my Shel from trading it within a single quarter - especially if I also get the divi too!! ATB
Boyo - are you quiet, because we've gone off the chart?
Apologies for not responding GfG - with Shel doing very nicely, I’ve been preoccupied with other stuff.
I’ve now sold most of my holding but still have a tiny number and will top back up if/when the opportunity presents itself.
It can’t really go off the chart because a chart is basically a record of what has happened - but it does become more difficult to identify likely resistance levels although there are various theories and tools that some use. I’ll be guided by OP movements, the trends and the ‘8,21 EMA’ blue and red squiggly lines shown here https://invst.ly/14fpze , which converge and cross at suggested ‘sell’ and ‘buy’ points. They are always a bit late though, coming after a given peak or trough.
ATB and GLA
From my perspective, as a holder again, today (Wenesday 17th) went well: the sp challenged the red trend (15’ view: https://invst.ly/14fo20 )that has held it back since 26th March (three weeks) and closed above it for the first time. Tomorrow’s open and subsequent price moves will hopefully confirm the break and stay above 342. If 342 holds till the weekend there’s a chance that OCDO may start to build from this level but, let’s face it, this is a fragile share at the best of times. Regaining 365 (which was a support now turned to resistance) would be a significant positive IMV. GLA
Phoenixy: From 10p off the share price to 20p off today...is that the change in trend ? ‘.....
Looking at the trend I’ve drawn here https://invst.ly/14f2f0 it’s dropping at about 15p/day which ties in with your numbers as an average. I think I previously said 10p/day in a post and accept I may have understated it. I do realise that it’s not possible to read off the numbers on the charts I post - the links are not interactive. I don’t think the trend has changed materially in the last few days - ie I don't think it’s getting worse. In fact, I’m hoping it will level out and I bought back yesterday-as posted - so I’m anticipating a level day today but I’m also prepared to bail if things start to go wrong. ATB
SFH300: You're certainly not alone in having had a painful time with stock market investment. It's a brutal and deceptive environment. All I would say is don't act in haste, step back and consider your options: If OCDO continues to slide then could the cash you might release by dumping it free you up to explore other possibilities? Selling at a loss is a tough decision to make - most of us have learned the hard way that we leave it far too long.and get drawn into the deadly mire of 'averaging down'.
Cheers Stupmy.
Yes - I think 238 could be dreadful for some on this board and, for that reason, I don't wish for it. However, if you are in the market you have to try and make it work for you as best you can. ATB meanwhile.
Well today was another win for the red trend: https://invst.ly/14exse , which was handy for me because I thought it would hit 342 at some point , so I exited last week around 400 and bought back today as it finally hit that level. I'll sell again if it makes it back over 365 or do a similar trick if it looks like 238 is incoming.- I'll just keep a small, reasonably constant, number of shares after each buy-back and try to shake some cash out with day trades whether it falls or rises. OCDO is turning me into a trader, scalping a few pence here and there on boring days .
Ideally I'll accumulate more seriously if/when OCDO establishes itself on a rising trend - although there's been no hint of that since Mr S stirred the 'MKS Legal Challenge' hornets nest. As you can maybe tell, OCDO has become more of a plaything than a serious investment as far as I'm concerned - I'll have fun with it rather than stress about the poor investor returns.
It’s had a few goes at breaking this trend… maybe today? https://invst.ly/14ep8r
The set-up looks similar to a fortnight ago (arrowed). It failed then but maybe this time…
I agree with PI_Winner about Motley but the last three months have been a car crash here, so in response:
1) Shorts (professionals) don’t sweat much: any share is only worth what the market will pay.
2) Focus on fundamentals: No profits anticipated for next three years, which will then be 17 years from IPO. (It ain’t exactly Tesla or ARM)
3) It’s still going down. Yes, it’s up 2.4p on Friday’s close - big deal - but not breaking any current negative trends and not one positive trend in sight.
4) Until it breaks the immediate downward trends this continues to be in decline: so why buy? It has just two days to break the first of those: https://invst.ly/14egjt , so we’ll know by the weekend if it’s fighting back after recent falls.
5) If it finishes above 365 this week then that would be a good indicator but remember that £5 by June 21st would only just match last year’s performance, which was pretty dreadful (until the gossip re Amzn started to invigorate things ).
To summarise: lots of support here but little solid basis for it currently, probably on the assumption in many minds that the sp will one day return to £30 (it might but, apparently, not in the next three years if profitability matters)
Cue the sellers?
https://invst.ly/14e9ad
It would be interesting if this does close above 365 today (I'm not holding my breath).
Even 360 may get tougher as the day progresses.
Given that OCDO is in a continuing trend that’s falling at about 10p per day, recent horizontal support levels have not been lasting many days.
Last year’s low of 342 historically represents the next likely level of support.
Unfortunately, with the sp resuming the downward trend (red) on Friday towards last year’s 342 low, OCDO now has just three days to start a fight back and break out from it: https://invst.ly/14dw5p (15’ view). Failure to do so will inevitably see it pushed to levels not visited since 2017.