Here’s my usual weekly comparison chart: https://invst.ly/vix4o . G has made no progress in recovering from May’s loss of value.
This nineteen month chart gives an indication of how the KRI companies have fared against Chevron (reference major) and Brent since pre-Covid 2019: https://invst.ly/vix83 . As we all know, G’s resilience and quick recovery last year has given way to quite dismal performance of late and the sp is currently weaker than it was 12 months ago, despite the fact that monthly revenue has tripled in the meantime (based on July 20 being $9.8m and my estimation that this month’s payment should total around $30m)
Although there have been some retraces en-route - Brent has been going in only one underlying direction for 15 months: https://invst.ly/vivbo , as supply continues to tighten. However, oil co. sp’s - including G - have generally not kept pace with it.
RE: Disconnect between OP and SP again23 Jul 2021 08:52
most under performing share in the sector....
Have you got a reference and link for that char? It's ordinarily a subjective assessment, based on the period selected and the criteria used - so the statement needs some qualifying information. I assume you are referring to sp performance rather than any other measure? As has been discussed many times, RDS (and BP) reduced sharply against US majors as a consequence of the dividend cut last year, in other respects it continues to track them: https://invst.ly/vikab (chart shows RDS against Exxon, Chevron, BP and Brent since Dec 2019) The dividend cut results in the diversion of cash for other purposes such as debt reduction, share buybacks or growth in new business areas which are aimed at improving long-term investor value. Those investors who disagree with this approach should have considered the prospects for Fossil energy and the impact on RDS as OP started to decline in 2019 and as covid accelerated the collapse in price in Q1 of 2020.
RE: RDSB v Wider Market Fall Theory19 Jul 2021 16:27
I'm not sure which 'both' you are referring to Barrie but I thing RDS has dropped faster than the wider market (FTSE100) today although not as sharply as BP so fa. The firework has apparently been lit and I'm standing well back for the moment.
Like Hamilton gaining a couple of seconds per lap on Leclerc yesterday, maybe we’ll see a similar trend with G v the noisy neighbours and others over the next few weeks. Today’s weakness following the OPEC+ news at the weekend was to be expected but some people are still very bullish regarding OP - like this Citigroup fella:
If RDS is on the road to nowhere then so are BP, Exxon and Chevron. Why hasn't Char followed his own assessment and found something better? https://invst.ly/vgvbz Meanwhile, some Brent price weakness was to be expected following the relaxation of OPEC+ production. Any OP north of $65 is fine. And , although I'm not sure I agree, if this Citigroup man is correct then: 'The market is very tight and a supply increase of 400,000 barrels a day will turn out to be a pittance....... Demand is significantly higher, despite the Covid-19 pandemic exploding in parts of the world, and oil prices are likely to climb much further by the time summer is over' https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/heres-what-citigroup-to-goldman-say-about-the-opec-oil-deal-2419065
Yes bunks, I agree too. Although all companies seem to be failing to see a rebound in sp that 's proportionate to the strength of OP. If it helps at all, here are some notes to put G's recent price action in context. I think it’s worth noting that G has tracked GKP and Brent perfectly well since the end of May and has actually outperformed DNO and Chevron over the same period: https://invst.ly/vgia9
As we all know, G’s sp suffered a setback between the 12th and 28th of May but the gap between G and the others that opened up has not worsened since then, indeed it seems to have improved slightly. Looking at the same group since 11th Feb, https://invst.ly/vgii2 the divergence between G and the others is easy to spot. At the worst point, G was effectively 33p down against CVX (measured against G’s price scale) but by last Friday’s close the difference had reduced to 20p.
A long-term view of the four, going back to pre-pandemic December 2019, shows that G has outperformed the others for much of the time but is now back within the group: https://invst.ly/vgiq8 It’s not as exciting as we’d like but at least G’s performance isn’t totally off-track and should improve significantly as Sarta production increases and if QD proves successful.
There's a small gap of 1.2p to 170 which appeared on the 13th May. With oil having hit $77 since then, I'm astonished that that gap hasn't been filled yet I can't see any others that are outstanding, even going back to when the sp was 230p+ .
Ed: If the indexes have a 10% pullback, will the oil majors do the same? Putting this question another way, are value stocks a good shelter in general market pullback?
Not sure why you’ve asked me this as I usually only comment on day to day RDS’ price movements and I’m sure there are others here who could respond more usefully. My own experience is that there is no shelter in a general market pullback other than heading for the exit. Any index surely reflects how that particular group of constituents has moved - so if it’s an O&G index then I’d expect the O&G majors within it to have moved in a similar fashion. Regarding whether value stocks are a good shelter in a general market pullback then, if you regard RDS as a typical value stock, I would say they may not always be - as this 18 month chart of RDS against the FTSE 100 demonstrates: https://invst.ly/vgbun
Uncertainty for certain... It’s been a disappointing month so far for RDS but at least it’s doing better than BP and Chevron: https://invst.ly/vga4b Brent was all over the place this afternoon, out of trend then back in: https://invst.ly/vga55 So up or down next week?
Since 2019, you’d be hard pressed to choose between G, DNO and GKP. G has generally had more time in the sun and suffered fewer troughs: https://invst.ly/vg42a They all took a massive slide from March 15th: https://invst.ly/vg44- G then saw a big advance over the other two - worth about 20p - prior to May 13th at which point that 20p gain plus another 5 or 10p got wiped away. Given where OP is, they are all doing sh*t - but so is ‘gold standard’ Chevron, which is not much further ahead of them: https://invst.ly/vg49g