Member Info for Boyobach

Well you got 6 recommendations for that comment, Oracle - so a definite approval consensus from this board.

I agree that the article didn’t add anything new for those that follow OCDO. It was, of course, an invitation to go deeper for more analysis, presumably at a price - the usual trick. However the tone did fit with my thoughts and I’m assuming that the six who agreed with your comments are rather more positive about OCDO than I am. I therefore wonder how they feel about today’s price action: https://invst.ly/1ar2-j ? Does it establish a bottom at 258 prior to an eventual recovery to your target of 600 or is the sp likely to drop further?

Things were obviously not improving for OCDO’s sp today: https://invst.ly/1aq0ps (daily tick chart since Feb). Bouncing along the 260 support level as the 3 month sma keeps sinking isn’t encouraging.

As the Simply Wall St article rather delicately says ‘If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Ocado Group isn't positive’

The link Sheltie posted didn't work for me - I guess this is for the same Wall St Journal article, which is worth a read: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ocado-group-lon-ocdo-shareholders-070649456.html

Owls: So, just to be clear about the context of your comments , you've not been invested in OCDO for at least four years (since it was in the 20s)?

I'm surprised you weren't tempted by the rallies in 2023 - I guess you are looking for consistent momentum over a few months?

MKS makes the important point that there are differences in investing timeframes between people commenting on this board. It’s an essential bit of context. Friday’s low near 253 may have been a good buy point for someone trading with a target of, say, 280 in mind as there’s a reasonable chance that it will cycle back up within a few days. However, longer term prospects beyond that are far less clear as the price may soon fall further if it remains within the 16month downward trend here: https://invst.ly/1aon9i . Long term investors will be looking for it to break through that .

Yes Stupmy, I'm not attempting to suggest a bottom here - 260 was mentioned as a nominal support level. It's gone down to 253 previously and your 236 seems a fair target. My current LT outlook on OCDO is not encouraging:

As a long term investment, OCDO’s 3 month average sp has fallen by circa 12p per month so far this year. During 2024 the SMA dropped by nearer 22p per month. Obviously, this filters out the volatile trading opportunities that it has presented but these have also been diminishing. Ultimately, the fact remains that OCDO has been a poor long-term investment which is continuing to decline in value. It is worth noting that Autostore, offering a similar warehouse picking technology, is faring no better: https://invst.ly/1aodhr (OCDO v AS sp over last 18 months).

Maybe the prospects for this technology are not particularly promising?

I don't think the MKS cyber problems are relevant Waccy - and I'd assume shareholders in OCDO are smart enough to realise that the on-line JV is technically separate. I guess the supply chain of MKS specific products could be affected - but it shouldn't be a significant issue as far as OCDO group is concerned. In any case, most attention here is on OCDO's tech: news about that is what will shift the dial. Anyway, today's price action wasn't encouraging, with 260 beckoning again although buyers did step forward this afternoon to soften the initial drop: https://invst.ly/1anykf

As it broke below that rising trend in early trading, I think we may get our answer today. Let’s see where it closes: https://invst.ly/1anlyq (position at 9.31 BST)

‘The overall result continued to be constrained by [other stuff plus….] continuing technology fees for the old Hatfield site’. This, of course, is income for OCDO Group - so when it goes, OCDO’s tech revenue will drop.

Despite finding a ceiling this week at 280 (it did briefly go to 282.50 intraday) and falling today after the MKS statement, OCDO remains in a positive trend. How much further do you guys reckon? https://invst.ly/1an6i5

Agreed on all points, sheltie.

I've been out of OCDO for a while and thought I might get back in - but it's really not an encouraging proposition. As I understand it, new contracts on a 'service' basis require up-front capital which is recovered over a period, which is fine if the pipeline is flowing and building but that's not exactly how things have developed here. ATB to you too.

Cheers Barnety - sometimes I'm just doomed to unlimited laughter.

So this JV issue (not directly managed by OCDO) is what's holding the sp back?

The insights here are utterly Qantastic and I would just add that:

If this promotes promising but less well known products then it's good, although a hair care aisle for bald headed people like me might be less useful.

Misogynists are doomed to failure.

& the share price is hammering up (although it still closed below 272). https://invst.ly/1ak35f

I guess you could be right Mallen but, five years on, there’s not much sign of a further step change in grocery buying habits. Most people seem glad to get out of the house - even if it’s just to get away from a screen, go shopping and physically see what’s available.

Warehouse automation isn’t doing well - take a look at Autostore, which has now adopted the ‘automation as a service’ model, similar to OCDO. Here is the sp compared to OCDO over the last year and a half: https://invst.ly/1ajola .

And here’s an investing.com article from two weeks ago:

https://uk.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/deutsche-bank-cuts-autostore-stock-rating-amid-q1-revenue-drop-93CH-4050233

Meanwhile OCDO’s sp remains in long-term decline, where every peak is lower than the last one and the three month sp average price is consistently falling: https://invst.ly/1ajos8

OCDO’s technical division is effectively a service company with limited prospects and the group’s sp has consequently failed to level out, let alone recover to pre-covid levels seen ten years ago when it looked more transformative .

Barnety's 'wet dog' comment in the 'carful' thread sums it up .

Two added to my filter list.

There's a simple 'hack' to view filtered posters without having to adjust the list: just click on their name when it appears as a thread originator.

An unconvincing climb back above 260 towards the end of the week:

https://invst.ly/1ag54l

Declared shorts still around 6.4% - so not much change there.

An understandable target, Oracle, and good luck with it.

OCDO dropped below a significant threshold for me today and also closed at its lowest price in six weeks: https://invst.ly/1adpik .The closing UT provided just over 1p of relief and may signal a positive start tomorrow. A 15’ trading view spells out this month’s 20p+ drop from 280: https://invst.ly/1adpq-

Does anyone have a view on whether today's results of the tender offering to purchase back certain notes had any influence on the price? I’m not convinced it did but I may be overlooking something.

Yes sheltie - we're on the same page on those points.

Except for the certainty associated with your use of the word ‘fact’, I agree sheltie.

Any attempt at prediction assumes a degree of probability. As a volatile stock in a company which has yet to establish a sustained positive cash flow and investor return, the market valuation is necessarily subjective and influenced by sentiment which means there can be no certainty about which way OCDO may go. This morning’s trading movements are behaving much as might have been anticipated near the supporting ‘decision level’ of 260: https://invst.ly/1ad9ni . The jury is still out at the moment.

There's a good article on Vulcan here: https://spectrum.ieee.org/amazon-vulcan-picking-robots .

I think it's important to note that grocery and certain other specialised/standardised picking is going to be different from the range of products that Amazon needs to sort and transfer. A grocery warehouse will necessarily be more ordered and efficiently organised - less random due to the more defined product ranges and repetitive nature of the flow.