Member Info for Boyobach

Hopefully we'll discover if 353 was an overshoot or part of a more sustained upward trend early next week: https://invst.ly/1bouom

Today’s closing UT was encouraging: https://invst.ly/1bovr5

One person's moving up is another person's levelling out: https://invst.ly/1bnz9z (15' trading view)

310 still looking good though: https://invst.ly/1bnzi9 (daily ticks)

OCDO’s sp seems to be stabilising - maybe in the 310-350 trading range - although it’s admittedly too early to tell with a great degree of confidence, especially with tonight’s UT pointing downwards. So it does now present a difficult decision for ‘longs’ who bought at the bottom and have recently secured well deserved profits by top slicing or selling off completely. This is because re-investing at this ‘yet to be established level’ does risk losing the recent gains if it falls back to the bottom - which , TBF, does seem unlikely given the apparent path to profitability. However, it strikes me that there's no immediate motivation to dive back in : https://invst.ly/1bmz-2

The pullback in sp over the last two days is hardly unexpected. However, the drop has, so far, been far less dramatic than the market reaction to the FY24 results in late Feb: https://invst.ly/1bm3d- which took the sp from 340 to 226 in four trading days.

Today’s open and close prices were fairly close, whilst the day’s highs and lows tested wider extremes - this suggests that the price could be nearing the next low point, marking a possible return to the Jan/Feb price range of 300-330 it occupied prior to the FY24 Results: https://invst.ly/1bm4so

Context is invariably missing in investment conversations. How long is long? Simply buying a share as opposed to borrowing one to sell is going ‘long’, even if only for a few hours.

Clearly, buying a share with no immediate intention to sell is what many would consider as ‘long’ and that is what I do. However, my long investments have all needed to be managed to maximise their value. With volatile shares, like OCDO, there may be more need for activity than with other shares. One routine approach is to top slice and subsequently top back up: ie progressively sell a proportion at the highs and then top back up at the lows. This effectively maintains or increases the value of an investment. To simply buy and sit on your hands without monitoring an investment is naive at best and loss making poor management at worst. The classic mistake is to ignore an unexpected and extended downward turn and either hang on or, worse, ‘average down’ by adding as the slide continues in the fond belief that it must surely recover. If you had bought OCDO in July two years ago you would be £2 down today unless you managed the investment appropriately in which case you could well be in very handsome profit, given the peaks and lows it has reached in the meantime. Day trading is a totally different matter and does require a very different approach.

Well there's a 17p gap above 415 from last July to be filled - so go for it if you're feeling lucky! https://invst.ly/1bkf8w

Looking at the current chart and the history from last summer. Barnety, I have to say that current sentiment might drive it that way (ie 375 and maybe even 405). But I think it needs to do it quickly because sharp pullbacks are a characteristic here and I’m also anticipating the potential for a ‘short’ response to what I perceive has been a market over-reaction to a solid but otherwise unexceptional set of HY results. So, I do have a future target sp in mind which I’m not going to discuss because it’ll wind the usual guys up and I’ve already dropped hints. Also, shorts will undoubtedly have been reloading over the last week - raising the vital question : will they simply close out and bank their accumulated profits or aggressively dump and go for another downward cycle? Rapid spikes are always risky - I’ve seen too many over the years to get sucked in beyond a certain point - better to miss the boat than jump onto one that suddenly starts sinking when it reaches deep water. Best of luck!

The sp closed up again (for the ninth consecutive trading day I think?) and the 340 level has looked more secure as the day progressed. There was no sign of a drop back to fill the gap at 328. Consolidation above 340 followed by sustained recovery would place OCDO back in the trading range it occupied prior to the disappointing Sobey’s news just over a year ago. It’s now chasing parity with the FTSE250 rebased to that period: https://invst.ly/1bk43o , which would place it at around 375 if achieved. Reported shorts have increased very slightly to 5.47% at the time of writing - but well below the 7% they were typically at a year ago.

Profit taking in anticipation of increasing risk of pull-back.

Trades in Ocdo from last Thursday have been interesting and entertaining. I wish I’d had more time to follow them after they blindsided a few punters with the initial pull-back from 280 last Thursday and then took off after the initial drop back to 260p (which many, including me, would have thought was sufficient reaction to the ‘guidance achieved’ results). Since then there have been a couple of resistance levels which effectively give pause for thought (310 and 340) where the intra-day price has levelled for a while before pushing on. On a 15’ trading view, there’s been a noticeable upward trend (green) fighting a limiting trend (red) which conventionally signals another decision point near where they meet - which effectively happened this pm at the next likely resistance level of 350: https://invst.ly/1bjddd . This led to the closing drop back to 341 and the question now is whether it will pull back further or whether there’s enough momentum to resume, capture 350 and build from there to last summer’s highs, where 375, 400 and 450 would begin to come on the radar. My guess is pull back - what’s yours?

Ha! I don't know about that Sangijuelas. I don't get involved in woke/anti-woke debates - they are pointless and a consequence of inevitable changes in society as it develops. I'm just keen to see what line the smarter shorts take if this recovery continues. Once OCDO gets momentum going - in either direction - those on board can get trapped by either fear or faith if they are not careful. Do you remember last summer - July 29th, I think, -oh and 19th Sept - plenty of examples with OCDO. It should not be taken too seriously, unless you want to make a profit - when it can become quite hard work to maximise and lock in the gains.

As a broker rating that seems logical to me - it's over half way there now and the upside v downside risk looks about 50/50 given the gaps.

It's a pity that institutions drop below the short tracker radar at 0.5% - I'd like to know what Blackrock are doing with it

Progress through 340 is looking good and, as anyone who’s been interested in OCDO over the years will know, 340 has been a key support level previously - both in the summers of 2023 and 2024: https://invst.ly/1biy5m . The price here has always been driven by expectation rather than fundamentals, although the latter is what ultimately determines the underlying value. With that in mind, any smart investor here will be assessing the herd’s sentiment whilst keeping an eye on reality. I’ve made profits here and taken the odd hit. The trick has always been that when the ship sails away rapidly it’s often best to let it go as it’ll be back in a port eventually.

Tim: ‘belief’ in an investment should be based on fundamentals, analysis and conclusions. It should not be blindly adhered to as an sp tanks. Currently I am uncertain about OCDO’s market valuation - if/when I believe it is good value and likely to be in a steady rising trend then I’ll invest in it again. The past week's rapid rise could prove substantive or it may turn out to be just more volatile noise. Let's see it regain 340 solidly: https://invst.ly/1biifv .

Smokinjoe’s point about the underlying cash outflow being reduced by £93m didn’t strike me as ‘transformational’: there was still a net outflow of £108m in the HY so, yes, it’s on track to turn cash-flow positive during next year as per guidance (nothing new there as far as I could see). Analysts (with a few exceptions like Exane nearly two years ago) appear to have been as wrong about OCDO as the market. Some of them are more influential than others.

I didn't miss out entirely. But I'm out at the moment. OCDO is volatile and needs to be closely managed in order to avoid losses. Simply buying and holding hasn't been a successful approach here during the last few years of decline in sp . Time will tell if OCDO has finally turned a long-term corner - the market has badly misjudged OCDO in the past and so the spike of the last four days for basically following FY guidance (I acknowledge Smokinjoe's comment regarding the unexpected uplift in underlying cash) hasn't convinced me yet. Many investors have lost money here and I don't intend joining them: it comes down to a basic risk/reward calculation and so it's useful to see all points of view here. In the meantime, the rally upwards has nearly matched the collapse experienced at the end of February: https://invst.ly/1bhvxy , let's hope it continues without too much pull back and regains last year's levels.

Whilst the HY Report, which the company headlined with the words ‘FY 25 Expectations Unchanged’, immediately transformed the sp value by 80p/34%., I have to ask if the fundamentals have been transformed? Clearly not as far as the company is concerned - otherwise the guidance would have changed. So my thoughts now turn to the sustainability of the current shift in market sentiment and the potential trading range over the next couple of months - which are likely to be relatively quiet unless some unexpected news breaks. Sure, 330 is a credible next resistance but it may also be the current ceiling. I do expect to see a retrace and a potential return to the late 2024 trading range (maybe 290-340?). My pessimistic streak is also mindful of the unfortunate gap left on Thursday (all OCDO’s gaps have eventually got filled as far as I’m aware - that’s not to say there can’t be an exception).With the price beginning to hit a limit today I’m starting to plan my strategy for the next phase:

https://invst.ly/1bh4y7

Apparently reported shorts are at 5.41% tonight - but they were 5.28% on Friday (DYOR to check). It’s a dynamic situation but fairly consistent with the sp when it was in today’s range towards the end of ‘24. Shorts are not done yet, it seems.

There's no denying that it's smashing through the trends that have held it back since last July and well on the path to recovering from the last twelve months of dire performance: https://invst.ly/1bg595

The HY results have excited the market merely by being in line with guidance taking it back up to pre-FY24 levels, so there are clearly fine lines between optimism, pessimism and reality here. Worth keeping an eye on the shorts, which are still at 5.9% as of today’s report (they can be slow to be registered). A year ago the nominal level was around 350 (the Sobey’s news took it down to 280 in June24, followed by a closing peak at 446 in July) . It could be on course to recover that 350+ range but are the fundamentals strong enough to go much further? And have the shorts reloaded for a dump attack? Definitely action movie material currently - normal for OCDO.

Yes - the closing UT sealed a perfect HY Results day for OCDO: https://invst.ly/1bffyo

It’s hard to imagine OCDO now returning to July’s lows following today’s clean break through the 16 month trend unless some aggressive dumping takes place. As long as OCDO succeeds with the stated core priority of turning cash flow positive during FY26 then the bottom may finally have been established.

I’m quite surprised by the 'Fantastic' reaction here given that the statement headline says ‘FY25 expectations unchanged’ Doesn’t that simply mean that OCDO is on course as expected with no surprises? Anyway, given that it was effectively a firm and reassuring statement that guidance was being followed, the market reaction has also been very positive so far today with the 16month trend being tested and possibly broken (let’s see if this evening’s chart is still as good as this late morning snap: https://invst.ly/1bf4c- ). An encouraging reaction but, as should go without saying, do mind the gap.

I’m intrigued that a few here seem to be expecting a TU (Trading Update) rather than a HY Interim: the two are not ordinarily the same thing, especially as - for OCDO - TU’s in the past have been related to the Retail JV only - and these are now reported by MKS, with the most recent one just two months ago. So, as not much is likely to have changed there, what exactly are people expecting that’s going to shift the sp dial?