Member Info for Boyobach

Today's drop could be the beginning of a test that I reckon a few of us have been waiting for: https://invst.ly/1acpfr .

A 15’ trading view of today’s moves, with 8,21 EMA provides a bit more detail: https://invst.ly/1acq61 .Will it move into buy territory tomorrow or is 260 more fragile than my orange levelling-out lines at 262 in both charts suggest?

Despite a dip in early April to around 5.3%, Shorts have risen since the end of Feb from 4.66% to 6.37% as of yesterday.

In previous years OCDO gave a Q1 trading update for the retail JV with MKS in March but I believe that Retail reporting is now covered by MKS and then included in OCDO's HY and FY figures.

I thought Gio expressed his point clearly, Qantas - and I do agree with it. As usual, the picture spells it out for me, as this week's rally drops over the edge of a promising trend: https://invst.ly/1aaqre

It'll be interesting to see if support at 272 can be relied upon or if 260 will get revisited.

....today’s closing price of 282

Last summer OCDO’s sp, although volatile, averaged out at around 365. The average price has since dropped a further 80p to just above today’s closing price of 382: https://invst.ly/1a9sal

Whilst it does regularly offer trading prospects, as a pure long-term investment it continues to be going downhill until that 3 month sma (blue) moves positive (not merely level out).

You have to wonder if people bother to read over what they have written: ' Its market cap has plunged from over £2.3 billion in 2021 to about $2.34 billion.'

The article's 'positives' mainly relate to the retail JV with M&S - nothing much positive to say about the tech and the 'bullish' chart observations don't look too convincing - more like a long term flat line to me.

It's interesting that you keep buying without checking the price moves (ie charts), scallop, although -from a long perspective - I realise it might be a bit painful: https://invst.ly/1a6zk5 (weekly ticks over 4+ years

....the sp has not managed to push the 3 month average price up at all since the FY results.

(obvious correction needed)

I’m assuming GGEKOTrader had a buy point in mind when talking about ‘itchy fingers’ at around 285. So, with 272 getting tested up to today’s close, when the closing UT came to the rescue https://invst.ly/1a6edh , I wonder if he’s taken the plunge? I’m not interested personally - as OCDO seems to be heading down, unless 270 manages to repel the current move. Interesting to note that the sp has not managed to push the 3 month average price up at all since the HY results. It managed to level out for a while at 290 but it’s now on the way down again.

Here’s a trading view of the day: https://invst.ly/1a6el5 with the UT arrowed (as it doesn’t exactly stand out}.

Carrington: OCDO’s next HY results are due on July 17 and this month’s AGM is unlikely to carry any significant news. Retail’s JV trading should now be covered by MKS and will presumably be included in their final results, due on 21st May.

The last fourteen months have seen OCDO’s sp struggling to bottom-out from its post-COVID decline: https://invst.ly/1a2ke0 . In order to recover it must first break free from the current negative trend that continues to push the price down, defeating each of the levelling out periods seen over the last year. Last week saw the most recent challenge to that trend: https://invst.ly/1a2koe but a breakout remains elusive and market conditions are far from ideal at present. Could the sp currently be set to revisit 260 or even lower?

Rizzel - I was unaware of the CEO stepping down when I last commented on the failure of the sp to break the long term negative trend. The timing of that news was certainly not good and it remains to be seen what happens next - I don't think the sp looks set to make a further challenge to the trend immediately but neither does it look like retreating much further. My feeling is that it will continue to level out in the 270-320 range - eventually sliding out from beneath the trend. https://invst.ly/1a2koe

OK, so the sp got pushed back as I anticipated today but what was the real cause and is it temporary?

From a chart perspective there was likely to be some resistance around 320 (although 330 presents a more distinct historical barrier). This happened to be reinforced by the presence of the 12 month negative trend, which the sp also encountered: https://invst.ly/1a1e16 . Under these influences further progress was likely to either pause or be repelled - either by simple profit taking or by those exploiting potential shorting opportunities. So today’s drop was likely due to a combination of both but will it continue? The closing auction UT, with twice yesterday’s volume, set the closing price 4p ‘up’ in relation to the last market hours trade - https://invst.ly/1a1c4e - which bodes well for tomorrow but, although profit taking should now be over, it remains to be seen if there is sufficient momentum or shorting pressure to drive the price lower. Will it resume the upward path, pushing through the trend, or revert to the familiar cyclic pattern we have often seen since last April and repeated during Jan and Feb this year? It's decision time for any profit takers intending to buy back.

It's worth keeping an eye on shorts for clues. Interesting to note that reported institutional short interest in OCDO had been reducing - with Gladstone’s interest falling from circa 1.13% on the Mar 4th sp low, just after the FY Results, to 0.7% by 4th April (according to shorttracker). That’s an unwinding of about 30% by them over that period. However, total reported short interest has hardly moved since and is still above January’s low of 4.06 at 5.03% (which could be updated after today’s close, of course).

Is OCDO about to fully recover from the negative market reaction to the FY24 Results?

Today saw the sp attack and be repelled by the 12month trend that has placed a ceiling on its highs for more than a year (nearly fourteen months actually): https://invst.ly/1a0oj9

Breaking this trend would be a significant recovery indicator. Wider view for context: https://invst.ly/1a0oqs

I'm expecting a pull-back before it makes another attempt - but continuation can't be ruled out.

Yep - and to watch OCDO remaining relatively stable within a crazy market, has been entertaining:

https://invst.ly/19-i44 A distinct role reversal with 'normality'.

Another profitable week ahead for those who pay attention to their screens?

Well it was an interesting week wasn't it?

Aside from the ongoing Trump idiocy (interesting to note that, in an interview, his adviser Navarro seemed to think that VAT is a form of tariff ) since OCDO’s FY2024 results the sp dropped and then partially recovered. Meanwhile the market has itself fallen, which bizarrely puts the two back in alignment. Here’s OCDO v the FTSE 250 MC index: https://invst.ly/19-220 along with OCDO’s 3 month average and 12 month trend.

It looks like OCDO may indeed be flattening out again (pity that it is ever lower, of course)

Does anyone suppose the market volatility could have benefited any insiders linked to US politicians, advisers or their families?

It's amusing to observe that, amid the current market turmoil, OCDO has so far been relatively unfazed - remaining within my suggested trading range of around 50p: https://invst.ly/19y2g0

Ok Owls - thanks for explaining.

I guess that, because of OCDO's volatility and generally poor sp performance - with long periods running horizontally rather than climbing - the cyclic range has become of more interest to me, with today's opening price coincidentally falling right onto my lower limit. https://invst.ly/19x14l and subsequently filling the gap I've been concerned about. Let's see if its next moves fit within the pattern.