Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
And they're off - but slowly:
The last two short market weeks have passed without much to talk about regarding Shel, the other majors or OP - the latter is down by about a $1 and the others remain fairly flat compared to Friday 22nd close. https://invst.ly/12wuwe
Regarding Casapino's post - I've always appreciated their comments btw - I think an annual review is the very least that market investors need to do. Shares need to be managed and a close watch kept at all times IMV, whilst reviewing strategy and performance at this time of year is good . Always bearing in mind that each company's end of year report is another marker. I'm sticking with Shel - which is so far delivering better than my recent dip into BP.
Since early Nov, I have put the proceeds of some of my Shel trades into BP, figuring that, after a relatively poor spell, BP was due an increase. Well it will be nice if/when it happens, although it should be noted that both UK co’s had a better year sp-wise than their US cousins, presumably a reflection of the dividend gradually being restored to pre-2020 levels:
https://invst.ly/12wvb5
Cheers Justfencing. My exit was more fortuitous than I expected, with the two and a half year red trend having a bigger impact than I anticipated. https://invst.ly/12r-q8
750 didn’t delay, let alone halt, the current pullback so now 680 ish looks like the obvious next landing if the fall continues at pace. Although it hasn’t got much history as a support level, the recent blue trend is also there. If those fail then other likely levels come onto the radar. The 16th Jan Trading Statement will obviously influence direction and set expectations leading up to the FY results. ATB.
@ JohnyCL…It's a very long slow process of buy/sell, buy/sell’....
Is it really Johny? Check out the after hours volumes of the last couple of days - individual transactions of 1m+ shares after market close, possibly in readiness for selling into the next day’s rise. It’s not inconsistent with the volumes involved in the early morning decline in price. If that is a process, then the job looks pretty much done by 10am.
Because of the slow progress in sp increase since Wednesday and the possible stalling of price at around 50% of early October’s value due to the company’s cash flow issues, I decided to sell yesterday. If I was a LTH then I’d probably continue to hold most if not all but, having made around 60% since Monday, I decided to step back and see what happens next. PFC has been hard work for me in the past and I’m not sure I want to get stuck back in. Wishing everyone well here meanwhile.
Sm66: ……but they have to at some point buy the shares they’ve borrowed…
So they increase their short position (borrow more shares) on, say, the 19th in anticipation of a rise and then sell them at the next peak (which they effectively determine) and buy back when the price drops sufficiently (it doesn’t need to hit the borrow level for a profit to be made) - job done. They have bought the shares back already, so don't get focused on the notion that there are millions of shares yet to be bought back.
It’s interesting to note that the three peaks of the last three days are on a very precise line (blue).
https://invst.ly/12rprq
It could be a pure coincidence, of course. The volumes of shares involved don't seem inconsistent with the increased short level to me.
So far OCDO is following the script in as much as the two long term trends (red) put some brakes on the advance but the gap got filled and the rise tarted to meet anticipated resistance beyond the gap. The question now is whether 750 will provide support ahead of a push through the upper red trend and a move towards 860:
https://invst.ly/12rabd . It certainly seems possible.
Sentiment has been strong recently and there’s obviously a high level of expectation regarding January’s statement, so it seems unlikely that there’ll be much of a pullback before then and potentially a further rally. However, having hit my target but not being quite as confident as the market has been so far, I cashed my chips yesterday. GLA.
Today’s chart is interesting: sharp rise obviously (shame about the gap) then settling quickly to almost flat, normal volume during the day, with a rise late pm and a bump in volume an hour after the closing auction:
https://invst.ly/12qwv4
I reckon after-hours totalled over 2M in volume, half of which is listed as a single ‘O’ transaction at an apparently lower price than that of the closing auction
(Please DYOR to independently check/verify). Obviously, there’s a lot going on here, which is a bit opaque to me. I imagine that shorters would make maximum use of the natural profit taking cycle that a rising sp encourages, so how much influence did their activity have upon limiting the price today? As others have noted, Helikon was still adding as of yesterday (19th). I guess shorters could have sold and bought back at profit during first hour today (20th) - rinse repeat Thursday? .
This is all complete supposition, of course.
Good luck to all LTH’s here that have today seen the start of a possible turn around for PFC.
It’s all very well for newbies or people like me who have just returned in order to make a fast buck, but I do know how crushing a massive drop in sp can be.
Despite the baggage and the doubts I have about it, I’ve decided to stay in for a while - although 60% gain by the close was a tempting proposition after just two days (it was 85% at the peak). Not that I’m suggesting that investment decisions should be based on sentiment - I'm here to make my investments work.
Let's see what the next phase brings.
'This is a market, a company goes bust, up front payments are seized …'
Guarantees will be in place to protect the client and those will depend on the financial stability of the contractor.
There is a cash flow issue affecting the balance sheet this affects the guarantees causing a delay which affects the balance sheet which affects the guarantees ...... etc etc
Sure they added. Check a trading chart for yesterday and this morning - a couple of shorting runs to drive the price from 20.87 down to 20.00. and then re-load. Shorting isn't magic - - or invisible.
AND watch the after-hours buying tonight that's been going on at the closing price of 22.36 .
Innocent buys anticipating a rise or shorters re-charging in order to go in the morning?
https://invst.ly/12q6wx
I genuinely don't know but, as I said in a thread earlier, shorting doesn't affect fundamentals and - unless you are day trading - it's a distraction.
Temple of Doom: The kind of contracts here are of a scale that has different kinds of guarantees associated with them. This isn't a local builder or handyman. Those guarantees are one of the reasons the cash flow needs to be flowing more smoothly than it is currently - much of the problem is a matter of timing. Chillax and keep scalping - your activity, along with the rest, helps fill the dips, even if you are also tending to blunt the peaks .
The sp is making a step in the right direction so far today, especially if it closes above the three month red trend here: https://invst.ly/12q0np
PFC’s current problems lie within the balance sheet, pure and simple. They’ll either fix them or they won’t - and the sp will eventually move accordingly. Shorters have no control over the fundamentals, LTH's should not be distracted by the current emotive noise but focus on how the company deals with its cash flows. Don't expect too much tomorrow, either.
As there seems to be some anxiety and confusion here about short positions this link to Castellain Capital short tracker might help those who want to keep an eye on the position, it’s updated every day after the close and gives the dates of changes;
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0H2K534/
My understanding is that the shares on loan can be traded flexibly.
Looking at volume of transactions, Dec 4th, date of the last RNS and business update, recorded the highest volume in over two years and was over twice the volume of any other day during the period, thus establishing something of a reference price level. Today’s volume was about 15% as much:
https://invst.ly/12pks9
Closing price that day was 20.82p, up 3.81 (22%) from the previous close of 17.01
Since the 4th, sp activity has been mainly above 20p as it approaches the two and a half month downward red trend which it does need to break in the next two days in order to stay level or push upwards:
https://invst.ly/12pl6d
Given that, it seems unlikely that Wednesday's statement will contain anything to undermine that of the 4th, in which case I think downward pressure on the sp should be lifting by the weekend.
In view of this, I bought a few today during the afternoon dip.
Closing above 25 would be good: https://invst.ly/12p6at
……Averaging up doesn't mean selling as the price rises, it means buying more on anticipation of continued recovery / rises.
I agree Petrosaga but all sp’s cycle as they follow a much longer up or down trend. My approach to averaging up is to sell some as close to the peaks as possible and then add as near as possible to the lows. Averaging down, in its simplest form, is a mugs game: where investors just end up accumulating more as the price goes down in the vain expectation that it must turn at some point. The truth is that no individual share realises a profit until it is sold for more than the price at which it was bought, even if the average book value obscures this obvious fact.
…..over 6 billion awarded in contracts in one year really is terrible isn’t it?
No eurofil, indeed it isn’t, and that’s my point.
As ten years of history show, PFC has been in similar ‘good order book’ positions time and again yet the business has continued to decline. 2021 was supposed to draw a line under PFC’s decline, as was 2018 before that. So I’m asking what has fundamentally changed that will make 2024 any different? It just looks like Groundhog Day again to me.
I’ve been on the outside looking in at PFC several times before, although today the position looks perilously dire and I’m hesitant about taking another punt.
As has happened before, after taking a dive, the sp looks like a bargain as the order book looks good but cash flow is a major issue and assets have to be sold to cover ongoing costs in the interim. Since 2017 this familiar cycle has never quite led to a full recovery and the net effect has been another step downwards for the sp where, over the last nine years, the baseline has moved from roughly 650 to 380 to 100 and now 17p, leaving gaps that will probably never be filled.
When I took my third or fourth punt at PFC, after the SFO case was settled two years ago, I was again careful to take profits as it rose and to exit when it fell: I’ve learned that trading and averaging up as a share rises is much smarter than averaging down as it falls.
In August 2018 the company had made a convincing comeback: there seemed to be general acceptance regarding an SFO fine and this was baked into the sp at that point. A cautious article at the time spelt out the position
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2018/08/29/growth-eludes-petrofac/
The article basically says: ‘The company's shares have been in recovery, but are not yet supported by the backlog. Shareholders were presented with a new strategic goal: a book-to-bill ratio of at least one. In other words, the group wants to reverse its current trajectory and grow the top line [ie revenue].’
It strikes me that today’s position is due to a failure, for whatever reasons, to achieve that aim. So what, after all this time, has changed to end this ever diminishing spiral?
A cynic might observe that PFC's best years were when corruption was apparently a key part of doing business and, perhaps because it has been sanitised, it can no longer compete as effectively as it once did in certain markets.
The collapse of PFC’s sp over the last ten years, and more particularly since May 2017 is a sad picture. No green lines to challenge the downward reds since the SFO case began:
https://invst.ly/12o64i
And, two years on from resolution of the case and a 'new beginning', there has been no encouraging sign of recovery in the meantime:
https://invst.ly/12o6ct
Is the failure to build the business back over the last two years due to poor management? Did the SFO story simply mask more fundamental problems with the business? Having got burned in 2017, it is hard to imagine how I could be persuaded to reinvest in PFC, even as a penny share.