Member Info for Boyobach

What are people's expectations regarding the FY Statement tomorrow? The market has moved positively for five days now, gaining 10% over the last five days.

I’m not expecting anything startling. Steady, well managed progress in all divisions will suffice for me. I consequently don’t expect a sustained change in average sp, even if there’s an initial reaction.

Issues I do expect to see in this week’s statement are consolidation plans for Retail results going forward, as this should now be transferring to Mks. I also want to see clarification of the termination timescale of the redundant CFC at Hatfield, which generates revenue for Tech Solutions whilst weighing on Retail profitability - which tends to confuse the overall impression of their relative performance and the perceived number of active ‘live’ modules.

A potentially significant 12 month trend break this morning as levelling out continues:

https://invst.ly/195rn5

And, on stupmy’s comment: although daily volume has not been much above average it has been more consistent over the last two trading days as the price has firmed up.

I can’t say that the last couple of weeks have looked significantly higher in overall daily volume to me, Stupmy:

https://invst.ly/195a2o

Daily volumes either side of the drop to 270 on 13th Jan and subsequent recovery were higher.

Volumes did pick up during this afternoon’s trading although the after hours trade, including the closing auction, was not exceptional

https://invst.ly/195dl7

Bosch - along with the wider German automotive industry - has been facing problems that have been building for months, primarily because of competition from Chinese manufacturers.

From Electrive (link below):

‘The fact that Bosch is closely looking at some of its business areas comes as no surprise. In November, the supplier announced its intention to cut 5,500 jobs worldwide, 3,800 of which were in Germany. However, these were still plans and not yet a concrete decision. Cuts will be made in the areas of assistance systems and autonomous driving, for example, as well as at the Hildesheim plant, where Bosch produces electric motors.’

Link: https://www.electrive.com/2025/02/20/bosch-discontinues-its-charge-my-ev-charging-service/

……literally: https://invst.ly/192vx9 as 310 is the 3 month average for OCDO. But no complaints about that from me either.

Shorts desperate? Not according to: https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/ where the reported ones still total 4.66%, a figure which hasn’t moved this month.

GrimReaper dead? Not according to AoD. Good work by Tars though. (I'll remove my filter on Qantas 'cos that nonsense has hopefully stopped now) .

I genuinely wish good luck to all ‘longs’ - of which I am currently one - for this coming week However, I’m not so high on ketamine that I’ve lost touch with reality. I’m sure its going to be a slog until Tech starts to build business and revenue. Hopefully these results will establish a foundation with existing partners performing well.

Have a good weekend.

With respect Toffers, it was you who said ‘last year's results took the sp to over £5’… but then failed to mention that it collapsed the next day. That was misleading if not technically *******s.

And let's not forget that Retail is not the main reason that many investors are into OCDO - it's the Tech business that is of key interest here. The drain on cash comes from the Tech side. OCDO needs to report a good Christmas as it will help minimise debt.

‘last year's results took the sp to over £5’….. for a day and for the last time! https://invst.ly/192l1m

After absorbing the numbers, market reaction to last year’s results ultimately led to the sharp decline to 340. A halt to OCDO's continuing decline would be good and is probably the best we'll see.

Yes OSG. Tomorrow’s action is hard to call. as far as a daily chart is concerned. The short term red trend here https://invst.ly/191xhj has not been broken, so could remain in control, especially as there’s no valid green upward trend challenging it and the closing auction pulled the closing price down below 303p. I’ve obviously been anticipating that levelling out above 300 could continue and, although the rise to 306+from today’s 299.50 start was hopeful, the rest of the day failed to set the seal on things. So you may yet see your target price.

I agree Gioviano, although I'm not sure that Musk is helping Tesla 's value currently,. As long as OCDO's forward guidance this week is solid and based on realistic expectations then I'll be content to continue with my prudent investment approach.

I'm not expecting anything stunning.

Valid points Gioviano. On the bearish engulfing pattern - as on all chart interpretations - I take a very basic view about the indicators and think the bearish move that was signalled will fit in with the current cyclic pattern, which may be improving slightly (green https://invst.ly/190khh ). I really do think the current pattern is levelling out and that downward and upward pressures are continuing to equalise - a process that has been happening for twelve months now.

Regarding why OCDO is where it is after 25 years despite having good technology and a strong retail management: doesn’t the answer lie somewhere near the top? You know = the person getting paid handsomely but maybe not the best at making sustainable and disciplined strategic decisions within a retail environment. Overcapacity and the costly early abandonment of Luton CFC point to errors in forward planning and poor targeting of expenditure IMV. Paying high bonuses to people who don’t deliver is daft - but Elon Musk has proved how stupid investors can be.

I think Barnety and Owls have a good handle on this stock and agree with the essential message that OCDO has done very well for ‘longs’ who have been smart enough to buy at the right times and subsequently take profits rather than sit on their hands whilst clinging to hope as the price has sunk back and reality dawned. Valueplay’s lunchtime observation about the sp falling again may have looked superficially relevant but, as MKS dropped by more than OCDO today, I don’t think it was specific to this share. Indeed OCDO has been doing better than MKS since the Jan 13th low point and the 3month average has almost stopped falling at 310p: https://invst.ly/18-xh8 . Perhaps it will now coast towards the FY24 report without dipping much below the 300 support, ideally establishing a long-term bottom from which to build.

Barnety: I broadly agree with your points (270 was support btw. Resistance is what stops a share continuing to rise). The Sobey's news caused an immediate plummet which was unfortunately followed by a significant analyst downgrade. It upset the summer's price rhythm - which I'd been rather enjoying and which I felt had established the bottom at 300. The sharp rise to 450 that followed within days was obviously OTT given the fundamentals and lack of new contracts and probably due to rational recovery + shorts being squeezed + herd reaction etc etc. We are now back to a relative normality but, whilst low margin retail is doing ok, the elusive technology earner is not quite pulling its weight yet and, unless they trade, investors have yet to see a return from the business itself. I'm cautious about getting my feet too wet in this murky pond but it is interesting.

Hi Getafgrip: I'm still in Shell. Having done well there as the sp recovered from below £10, I kept my core holding and now just top and tail as the price peaks and troughs. But we all need to have some diversity and, along with more sensible choices like RIO, OCDO became an entertaining challenge rather than a serious element in my portfolio. As a long investment OCDO has been very disappointing but, as you've observed, it can generate cash despite the fact that the sp is worth no more than ten years ago and it has never paid a dividend. I don't recommend it for anything other than a highly prospective bit of fun. Shel has remained a solid and good earner for me - I keep my book cost per share well below the market price - but I know there will be shocks ahead as the car industry faces big upheaval. Legacy car makers- especially the German and Japanese big names- have been overtaken in EV development by Chinese outfits (BYD, CATL etc). It took me a year of owning a BEV to become comfortable with the basic characteristics, separate out the false myths and realise that I'd never go back to an ICE. I don't comment about this stuff over on the Shel board because I'd be classed as an unwelcome green activist, there's no immediate threat to the sp (buybacks are effectively maintaining shareholder value} and I'm confident Shel have a long term future and strategy to deal with the inevitable shifts in essential energy sources. GL & ATB to you meanwhile.

Just following up on Barnety's 'treading water' observation in the 'break 330' thread:

Looking at the past week, it’s easy to see that the FTSE250MC finished today fractionally down on the level it reached on Monday. However, in the four days since then, OCDO’s sp has slipped back by nearly 20p, around 6%. So the week’s pull-back doesn't seem due to wider market influences. Vertical lines on the chart mark the relevant days: https://invst.ly/18z6cr

The chart also shows us that OCDO has gained about 17% since this year’s low of 270p a month ago on Jan 13th , whilst the FTSE250 has risen about 6% - so a much needed recovery compared to the index, following a poor few months since October, which have seen the sp’s 3 month simple average continuing to drop to today’s 310.6 - its lowest level for seven years. It’s not a stunning run up to the FY24 statement and it’s hard to imagine the fundamentals are going to have improved much beyond market expectations. What do you think? Was 270 the bottom? If not, then some thoughts on a target could be interesting.

Maybe, let's see what tomorrow brings Kums.

Oh yes, Stupmy. 270 is just a recent bottom - not a definite bottom. The gap represents the most obvious risk until it is filled, which is why I usually mention it.

Like you, I've eliminated any losses here and severely reduced my exposure. OCDO takes a lot of managing to generate cash - which is frankly every investor's objective. Valueplay is no different to others here in that respect: his strategy may be different but any smart person here will recognise the balance between prospects, performance and fundamentals. On those points VP has been consistently correct and the 'faithfuls' often appear to have heads buried in hope rather than reality. OCDO should have reached its nadir by now - if not, then I'm not optimistic about the technology's future.

Yes Stupmy - I totally agree with you. OCDO clearly isn't strong enough to sail against the wind, whilst shorters will naturally make use of wider market trends when it benefits them. However, OCDO's volatility is a characteristic of the stock itself. Here's a quick chart that shows OCDO's sp, 3 month simple average and the FTSE250 since last year's lowest point: https://invst.ly/18xvvd ATB.

Buyers came in a bit prematurely in the cycle IMO, so it tested higher but failed. It looks set to revisit 290-303, if not

282 where the gap remains unfilled. Confidence in the FY Statement boosting the sp is not high at this point.

Too much noise, nothing useful, so two more added to my filter list. Will check in on them after results.

Toffers comment before yesterday’s open about a ‘rinse-repeat’ before the FY looks ‘on the money’ to me: https://invst.ly/18xkcg and, while 2.6m in volume were shifted around 11am, an intra-day gap down followed at much lower volume about two and a half hours later. https://invst.ly/18xkpo .Worth keeping an eye on methinks. The gamble will, of course, be whether the FY report meets the market’s underlying expectations. OCDO has a track record of disappointing at this point in the calendar.